Frances Advisories

[southerngale]

NHC has it a cat.3 on Saturday.

[Brent]

Here it is - I saved it as a "sticky" because it sounded odd -

ALL EC hurricanes can and DO fall part rather quickly if the forward or
Northward speed is under 35 mph. The slow forward speed enables the large
circulation of a TC along or Just off the EC to entrain large amounts of Dry
air which can result in rapid weakening. Recall Floyd... Gloria... Belle. This
rapid weakening (and in some cases outright Collapse) of the TC on the East
Coast is almost always missed by TPC and other forecasters

LOL, I'm not really sure about that. It has more to do with cold water north of the Outer Banks than anything, but Floyd hit in Southern NC(down by Wilmington), it didn't "suddenly" weaken because of it's motion(which was around 20 mph until landfall), it weakened because of shear.

[jlauderdal]

I would be more concerned if I lived in North Carolina and north.

<RICKY>

Why is that...you see the ridge breaking down middle of next week allowing it to move that direction. The models see a ridge building in and moving west.

[paulvogel]

This is now a " farcast" alert for Florida.

[mobilebay]

I'm not a ra-ra type of person, so it is unlike me to say something like this. However, I have a bad feeling about this Hurricane for someone along the US Gulf Coast and or Atlantic Coast. I'm not trying to get a rise out of the board, I just have a BAD feeling.

[JTD]

My original post didn't sound the way I meant it. Sorry about, southerngale, but I didn't mean it that way (like you said) but I just wanted to clarify.

[WXBUFFJIM]

I'd say Saturday morning it's a category 3. By Tuesday it could either remain a category 3 or maybe stronger still.

[MWatkins]

Someone asked if storms make it into the GOM from where Frances is now. The answer is yes...but it has only happened 3 times. One of those times is Andrew.

At the 03z advisory on August 18, 1992 (UTC), Andrew was a 45 kt tropical storm...moving WNW under the sw side of a subtropical ridge. It was located at 14.2N, 47.1W, or only about 50nm NW of where Frances is now.

Of course...as we all know...Andrew was also facing down a break in the ridge and the NHC accurately forecasted it would not take that break...but would bend back to the west.

The rest is history.

I am not suggesting that this will happen again (a Cat 5 like Andrew), but just reminding people what can happen...and that Andrew was in this exact position...moving in the same direction (although a little faster) and also forecasted to turn more NW...then bend back to the west.

Florida and the SE US...take Note.

Excellent point with an addendum. Andrew was a relatively weak tropical storm and remained so until turning back to due west near 65W.

This is a full-flegged hurricane on it's way to major status before it ever gets to 65W.

Of course...anyone in the Bahamas or along the SE US coast should pay close attention...I think the timeline may move up a day if the slowing forecast by the models does not occur as forecast. This does not look like a pleasant pattern through the next 10 days...

MW

[msbee]

well, I sure hope that Air Force Met's hunch is right!

[schmita]

Yeah right and you better call me if it's time to board up !!!!

[dixiebreeze]

A lot of do, JC, after Charley.

[Brent]

They are just quoting the NHC. They bring it to a Cat 3(115 mph) in 36 hours.

[Air Force Met]

well, I sure hope that Air Force Met's hunch is right!

I bet you do!

[MWatkins]

Satellite imagery over the last two hours suggests that Frances continues to intensify. Deep convection continues to develop and expand around the center and outflow has become even better established than before.

We will see a well-defined eye pop out in the next 3 hours I think.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

MW

[Windsong]

Yes Dixie...Windsong is my favorite perfume to this day, and thus, my screen name.

JC, I got the same "bad feeling" you have.

JLauderdal, I sure will keep you informed. Tom Terry is one of the best, and after listening to him since he started on the Orlando station, it is my belief that he is one of the best in the business. When HE says to pay attention, there is good reason. He just stated that it worried him that the Holiday weekend would distract people from watching Frances as close as they should... Hummmmmmmmm.

Denise

[lilbump3000]

Yes she is really intensifying and i wont be surprised if winds are up to 90 or 95 mph at the 11P.M. advisory.

[Windsong]

Mike

What are your thoughts on the possible path of Frances?

Denise (an MWatkins fan since 96)

[Brent]

Very ominous. Really deep convection now all the way around the center unlike earlier.

[obxhurricane]

No one one the EC needs to get their pants in a bunch just yet. It will still be another 4 days before we will have any idea if Frances will be a threat or not. Statistically, it stands a better chance of never striking the mainland US. We just need to keep monitoring the longer range guidance to see what kind of trends we see.

[Air Force Met]

The 21Z SSMI overpass shows a good eyewall feature that is open NW-N. Looking at the latest IR imagery, I suspect that is changing and we are good strengthening once it closes off. I don't think we will see anything explosive...but rapid deepening is not out of the question.