Frances Advisories

[rainstorm]

any specific track is rare. look at charley, it took a donna like track, and the last time that happened was 1960. isabel last year took a track that hadnt happened since 1933

[Hyperstorm]

Yes she is really intensifying and i wont be surprised if winds are up to 90 or 95 mph at the 11P.M. advisory.

You have a point there. Most likely the storm will be bumped up to 90 mph at 11pm if there is no discernible eye on satellite.

HOWEVER, if indeed the eye pops out (which if it does, I expect it to be a tiny well-defined one), then expect a Category 2 hurricane on the 11pm advisory. And if it does so, rapid strengthening should continue and expect major hurricane status tomorrow morning. Again, that is IF the well-defined tiny eye pops out soon.

For reference purposes...according to the current organization, I expect an eye similar to Hurricane Isaac in 2000 when it became a major hurricane for the FIRST time.

[Stormsfury]

Well, it could achieve major hurricane status without an eye popping up on IR imagery ... especially with the very deep convection that has erupted in the past 2 hours ... I would LOVE to have some idea if there is a higher than average amount of lightning strikes within the eyewall ...

SF

[LowMug]

If you look closely at the 2215 floater image you will see the eye is already showing up at close to 14N 46.5ishW...a very small eye at this time. It is going to become more defined in the 2245 and 2315 images.

I hope it does show because with this intense CDO explosion it is difficult to see if she is maintaining the earlier speed and direction. It almost looked like she was coming to a halt.

Any thoughts?

[Dean4Storms]

This is a good comparison. The UL conditions should favor continued strengthening and the steering is uncomfortably familiar!

[logybogy]

I'm thinking Frances has the potential to become Andrew's big bad older brother. Think Another Hugo, Gilbert, Isabel or Floyd.

Just imagine a Cat 5 Hurricane with 165+ mph sustained winds around a 45 mile wide eye barreling into South Florida.

It could make Hurricane Andrew look like a summer thunderstorm.

Because of a large hurricane's wind field, all of Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties could be wiped out. We're talking *hundreds* of *billions* of dollars in damages and *millions* of people homeless overnight being fairly realistic in such a scenario. The area is that densely populated. 5 million+ people live from Homestead to Jupiter.

[Hyperstorm]

Well, it could achieve major hurricane status without an eye popping up on IR imagery ... especially with the very deep convection that has erupted in the past 2 hours ... I would LOVE to have some idea if there is a higher than average amount of lightning strikes within the eyewall ...

SF

Well, yeah...it definitely can, but I doubt the NHC will take that route. Normally, they don't upgrade to major hurricane status if there's no discernible eye. The only times I can remember of that happening is when they have official observations (Recon).

[HURAKAN]

Thanks for your imagination but I don't think anyone needs a monster in our back doors, even less after Charley.

[Guest]

Or it could go out to sea, and your whole scenerio was just your imagination. Let's wait and see before we assess damage that hasn't occured.

[Stormsfury]

Well, it could achieve major hurricane status without an eye popping up on IR imagery ... especially with the very deep convection that has erupted in the past 2 hours ... I would LOVE to have some idea if there is a higher than average amount of lightning strikes within the eyewall ...

SF

Well, yeah...it definitely can, but I doubt the NHC will take that route. Normally, they don't upgrade to major hurricane status if there's no discernible eye. The only times I can remember of that happening is when they have official observations (Recon).

Exactly ... unless T-Numbers are unanimously in favor of major hurricane status, it generally won't happen ...

One storm that comes to mind was Hurricane Claudette in 1991, when RECON got out there ... they found that Claudette had 125 MPH max sustained winds ... the previous advisory was 75 MPH ... In the best track data, it was smoothed out some, but you'll see that there was a pretty good jump in winds as the storm was well SE of Bermuda ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... Track.html

(Click 1991)

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archiv ... elim01.gif

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archiv ... elim02.gif

[Brent]

Well, it could achieve major hurricane status without an eye popping up on IR imagery ... especially with the very deep convection that has erupted in the past 2 hours ... I would LOVE to have some idea if there is a higher than average amount of lightning strikes within the eyewall ...

SF

Well, yeah...it definitely can, but I doubt the NHC will take that route. Normally, they don't upgrade to major hurricane status if there's no discernible eye. The only times I can remember of that happening is when they have official observations (Recon).

If the Satellite estimates support a major, they will upgrade. They won't diverge from that unless recon says otherwise.

More than likely though, an eye will have to be visible.

[Hyperstorm]

Actually, I think it's fairly unlikely that millions will lose their homes if it strikes south Florida Even less likely the hundreds of billions of dollars in damage. Building codes have been revised since Andrew in 1992, so it's unlikely we'll see as many "regular" homes destroyed. Yes, mobile homes will disappear, but those homes are not extremely high valued anyway. Of course, we can't forget losses that are not houses. However, I still think that's a little exaggerated.

I think there was a place that estimated how much a Cat. 5 hurricane will cost to south Florida and I believe they said something like $50-75 billion. Definitely catastrophic, but not to the point that you're expressing.

A greater disaster, I think, would be that same scenario you're describing for New Orleans...

[canegrl04]

Frances is a she,and I would say shes like a tough old grandma,since the name has been in rotation since at least 1961. This one is very scary with its potential.I could see it reaching cat. 5 status.

[Guest]

But the case right now is, that very scenario mentioned is quite possible. I'm not saying its likely, just that that could happen with this storm. This storm is actually large in size.

[Anonymous]

I'm thinking Frances has the potential to become Andrew's big bad older brother. Think Another Hugo, Gilbert, Isabel or Floyd.

Just imagine a Cat 5 Hurricane with 165+ mph sustained winds around a 45 mile wide eye barreling into South Florida.

It could make Hurricane Andrew look like a summer thunderstorm.

Because of a large hurricane's wind field, all of Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties could be wiped out. We're talking *hundreds* of *billions* of dollars in damages and *millions* of people homeless overnight being fairly realistic in such a scenario. The area is that densely populated. 5 million+ people live from Homestead to Jupiter.

Florida already had its big one for 2004.... His name was Charley and you can relive the moment here if you missed it http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/CHARLEY.shtml? Maybe your scenario will play out in next year or the next few years

[logybogy]

Dade County had some of the strongest building codes in the country in 1992 when Andrew hit and we saw what happened.

It's only been 12 years since those codes were strengthened and only 10-20% of the housing stock in the three-county area is 12 years old or less. There are many, many, older homes that were constructed pre-Andrew that would crumble in Cat 5 winds.

Also, even the new stronger building codes does not safeguard against a Cat 5 storm. The requirements are to withstand gusts of up to 150 mph. You can have 150 mph gusts in a Cat 3 storm.

In Andrew there were reports of gusts up to 200 mph.

[RichG]

when it looked like it was going to go northwest and thinking it will NEVER make it that far west to hit us here in south florida. I mean I never saw that before, storms in that area ALWAYS recurved. Today I was thinking the same thing again about Frnces when I caught myself. Somebody please find a weakness to get this thing out to sea!!

[Guest]

any specific track is rare. look at charley, it took a donna like track, and the last time that happened was 1960. isabel last year took a track that hadnt happened since 1933

Sorry Charley did not take a Donna type track.

DONNA

CHARLEY

[B-Bear]

I'm thinking Frances has the potential to become Andrew's big bad older brother. Think Another Hugo, Gilbert, Isabel or Floyd.

Just imagine a Cat 5 Hurricane with 165+ mph sustained winds around a 45 mile wide eye barreling into South Florida.

It could make Hurricane Andrew look like a summer thunderstorm.

Because of a large hurricane's wind field, all of Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties could be wiped out. We're talking *hundreds* of *billions* of dollars in damages and *millions* of people homeless overnight being fairly realistic in such a scenario. The area is that densely populated. 5 million+ people live from Homestead to Jupiter.

Florida already had its big one for 2004.... His name was Charley and you can relive the moment here if you missed it http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/CHARLEY.shtml? Maybe your scenario will play out in next year or the next few years

Has anybody told Frances that yet?

[MWatkins]

Mike

What are your thoughts on the possible path of Frances?

Denise (an MWatkins fan since 96)

Hey there windsong...good to see you. I remember you from the old place...this one is better by a long shot...no?

I think the GFS is right on with this system with the tracking coming just a tad north from the previous runs...it should pass north of Puerto Rico (hopefully) and end up to the north/northwet of the DR/Haiti in a week.

Of course...that is a classic position for an Atlantic hurricane to threaten the SE coast. Of course that is a long way away and a lot can change...but at this time I think the system will pass north of PR...but be a little closer than currently forecast in the official advisory pakage this evening.

Of course...as this system comes further west we'll have a better idea about what threat if any exists for the US.

MW