Frances Advisories

[B-Bear]

Err. Could you explain the "280" vs. "290" course for us idiots?

Does that mean more westerly or more northwesterly?

[Matthew5]

280 is a little more west then 290!

[Brent]

Err. Could you explain the "280" vs. "290" course for us idiots?

Does that mean more westerly or more northwesterly?

270 is due west. 310 or 315 is NW, so it's more westerly, and moving more west than what was thought, meaning a more southerly track.

[lilbump3000]

That means more westerly.

[lilbump3000]

I also wont be surprised if the next ssd dvoark is at T5.0/5.0, but most likely at T4.5/4.5

[Derek Ortt]

Right now this appears to be an 85KT hurricane. That is the estimate I give (a T 4.5+)

[B-Bear]

Thank you all for your clarification.

[lilbump3000]

You can see the eye starting to come out better on this image

[Weatherboy1]

In addition to the fact it's starting to form an eye, Frances is also expanding in diameter. The CDO was very small at one point yesterday, but it looks like it has almost doubled in size. We'll see if this expansion trend continues. Charley was bad, no doubt about it. But he was very compact. Here in NE Palm Beach County -- only about 100 or so miles from his eye at the closest point of approach -- we barely got 30 mph winds in gusts. If Frances becomes a large (area wise) storm, she could eventually impact a much larger area. We'll see ...

[Guest]

In addition to the fact it's starting to form an eye, Frances is also expanding in diameter. The CDO was very small at one point yesterday, but it looks like it has almost doubled in size. We'll see if this expansion trend continues. Charley was bad, no doubt about it. But he was very compact. Here in NE Palm Beach County -- only about 100 or so miles from his eye at the closest point of approach -- we barely got 30 mph winds in gusts. If Frances becomes a large (area wise) storm, she could eventually impact a much larger area. We'll see ...

IF is the operative here...

[AlabamaDave]

I think a full scale evacuation of the East Coast from Florida to Mass. should begin immediately. There won't be enough time to get everyone out of the way.

[Brent]

You can see the eye starting to come out better on this image

That reminds me of a baby while it's in the womb.

[Stormsfury]

I also don't like the FWD speed depicted by the GFS ... I mean, it looks too slow with the FWD movement, and appearing to keep it stalled for several days ... I mean, it CREEPS it very slowly NE of the Islands (Puerto Rico) ...

It's been moving WNW around 16 mph and aside from a directional shift more westward in time, I don't see any sufficient reasoning that the TC would stall out like the GFS does ... we're not dealing with 10-14 days, we're dealing with maybe 7 to 10 days at most ...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 38_s.shtml

[Guest]

Frances may be the BIG ONE for South Fla..She may be the BIG ONE for some other area.She may stray so far west that she slam into Hispaniola & gets beat up real bad & never return to her former strength..She may recurve at the last minute & miss everyone or go right up the coast weaken to a CAT 2 & hit BrianI's house way up there in Mass..Its way to early to speculate on who in the US if anyone will be hit by this.

[Guest]

Frances may be the BIG ONE for South Fla..She may be the BIG ONE for some other area.She may stray so far west that she slam into Hispaniola & gets beat up real bad & never return to her former strength..She may recurve at the last minute & miss everyone or go right up the coast weaken to a CAT 2 & hit BrianI's house way up there in Mass..Its way to early to speculate on who in the US if anyone will be hit by this.

I hope not. I'm still cleaning up after bob in '91 (jk)

[Brent]

I also don't like the FWD speed depicted by the GFS ... I mean, it looks too slow with the FWD movement, and appearing to keep it stalled for several days ... I mean, it CREEPS it very slowly NE of the Islands (Puerto Rico) ...

It's been moving WNW around 16 mph and aside from a directional shift more westward in time, I don't see any sufficient reasoning that the TC would stall out like the GFS does ... we're not dealing with 10-14 days, we're dealing with maybe 7 to 10 days at most ...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 38_s.shtml

I agree. I wonder if the NHC track is too slow. They have it still NE of Puerto Rico on Tuesday Afternoon FIVE days from now.

[cape_escape]

Florida already had to deal with both Bonnie and Charley, God, I hope we don't get Francis too! My husband wanted to move me her for a long, long time, and now I'm here . But, he now thinks I'm going to want to head back north...if Francis hits us too, well, that's a possibility!

[MWatkins]

I also don't like the FWD speed depicted by the GFS ... I mean, it looks too slow with the FWD movement, and appearing to keep it stalled for several days ... I mean, it CREEPS it very slowly NE of the Islands (Puerto Rico) ...

It's been moving WNW around 16 mph and aside from a directional shift more westward in time, I don't see any sufficient reasoning that the TC would stall out like the GFS does ... we're not dealing with 10-14 days, we're dealing with maybe 7 to 10 days at most ...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 38_s.shtml

I feel ya. My morning forecast had it at 66W in 5 days...that might be closer to reality than I though earlier today...kind of thought I was out to lunch earlier.

MW

[rjgator]

After seeing that people still have to die from hurricanes and do not heed warnings when they are only two hours away I think it is never too early to have your basic needs. If florida was to receive another hurricane this year especially on the East coast it would be an economic disaster like none before. THere were severe shortages of plywood, concrete, and steel prior to Charley and now matters are even worse after Charley by increasing demand on a market that already has a limited supply of the basic construction materials. Not to mention that property insurance will most likely only be written by the JUA (State Fund that barely has enough to cover Damage from Charley) and FEds now for Floridians looking for coverage. If another one hits we would be in big trouble. Lets all pray this is a fish and that Florida can get through this year without another storm.

[Guest]

that is a possbile scenario which I think isn't all that unlikely. Terrorists attack the Republican national convention in NYC (that was a great idea put george bush, the terrorists worst enemy, in the biggest city in the U.S even though its democratic) it would take all the focus off Frances so people would be unprepared.