Frances Advisories

[cape_escape]

I think a full scale evacuation of the East Coast from Florida to Mass. should begin immediately. There won't be enough time to get everyone out of the way.

That sounds like a plan to me!

[lilbump3000]

26/2345 UTC 13.7N 46.8W T4.0/4.0 FRANCES -- Atlantic Ocean

[Derek Ortt]

This as much a 65KT hurricane as Lili was a 127KT hurricane at landfall as SSD had it

[Hyperstorm]

You can see the eye starting to come out better on this image

That reminds me of a baby while it's in the womb.

ROFL, Exactly what I first thought. Unfortunately, that does mean intensification...and a major one...

[Hyperstorm]

Dvorak is just so....YUCK! They are very bad in estimating small storms' strength, so undoubtedly they are wrong this time.

I fully expect a category 2 hurricane by 11pm (In fact, it might be one now). However, the NHC might wait until the morning if they try to be playing Dvorak here...

[dixiebreeze]

"Yes Dixie...Windsong is my favorite perfume to this day, and thus, my screen name."

I switched to Tres'or some years ago, but may try Wind Song again. So, which scent should we choose for a hurricane? Looks like Florida may have another one

[Windsong]

MWatkins said:
Hey there windsong...good to see you. I remember you from the old place...this one is better by a long shot...no?

Oh yes, this is a much better place. Now that I think of it, I believe I was in the old place since 92 or 93. Could that be possible? Lord how time flies. Storm2K is the best.

[cape_escape]

any specific track is rare. look at charley, it took a donna like track, and the last time that happened was 1960. isabel last year took a track that hadnt happened since 1933

Sorry Charley did not take a Donna type track.

The only similarities between Donna and Charley are the hit on SW Florida. If anything, Frances could do more of a Donna-type track(passing north of the islands and then turning back W to WNW).

Now, that's definetly something I didn't want to hear!!!! Donna is like a bad word down here in Cape Coral/ Ft Myers! Charley was close enough and then some!

[Windsong]

Well, we did the Charlie thing, so how about Cool Water Woman this time?

[WXBUFFJIM]

I think a 100 mph category 2 hurricane will be likely for 11 PM EDT tonight.

[Guest]

that sounds about right jim. Im thinking 95-100 mph by 11pm advisory.

[AussieMark]

any specific track is rare. look at charley, it took a donna like track, and the last time that happened was 1960. isabel last year took a track that hadnt happened since 1933

In Track Charley has a track more similiar to the SW Florida Hurricane of 1944 than Donna.

CHARLEY


SW FLORIDA 1944

[Doc Seminole]

[img]http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/arch/cases/920824/sat/gifs/vapor/92082303.gif[/img]

[Doc Seminole]

[img]http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/arch/cases/920824/sat/gifs/vapor/92082303.gif[/img]

[cycloneye]

.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040827 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040827 0000 040827 1200 040828 0000 040828 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 46.8W 14.9N 48.9W 16.1N 50.7W 17.1N 52.0W
BAMM 13.8N 46.8W 14.9N 49.0W 16.0N 50.8W 16.9N 52.2W
A98E 13.8N 46.8W 14.6N 49.3W 15.5N 51.7W 16.6N 53.8W
LBAR 13.8N 46.8W 14.8N 49.1W 16.2N 51.0W 17.1N 52.7W
SHIP 75KTS 86KTS 94KTS 97KTS
DSHP 75KTS 86KTS 94KTS 97KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040829 0000 040830 0000 040831 0000 040901 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 53.2W 17.9N 55.7W 17.7N 59.3W 18.2N 62.4W
BAMM 17.4N 53.3W 17.2N 55.5W 17.3N 58.9W 18.5N 61.9W
A98E 17.1N 56.1W 16.4N 61.2W 15.2N 66.4W 14.5N 71.1W
LBAR 17.6N 54.2W 17.4N 57.4W 16.7N 62.1W 16.8N 66.3W
SHIP 100KTS 100KTS 94KTS 87KTS
DSHP 100KTS 100KTS 94KTS 87KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 46.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 44.3W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 41.4W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 75NM

Folks more stronger at 11 PM now 85 mph.

[Cookiely]

Actually, I think it's fairly unlikely that millions will lose their homes if it strikes south Florida Even less likely the hundreds of billions of dollars in damage. Building codes have been revised since Andrew in 1992, so it's unlikely we'll see as many "regular" homes destroyed. Yes, mobile homes will disappear, but those homes are not extremely high valued anyway. Of course, we can't forget losses that are not houses. However, I still think that's a little exaggerated.

I think there was a place that estimated how much a Cat. 5 hurricane will cost to south Florida and I believe they said something like $50-75 billion. Definitely catastrophic, but not to the point that you're expressing.

A greater disaster, I think, would be that same scenario you're describing for New Orleans...

You said mobile homes will disappear but their not extremely valued. I hope you meant financially. People value their homes, be it block, wood, metal or a mud hut. Money is not the biggest issue in a catastrophe. The emotional devastation takes so much longer to repair, long after a new home is built.

[rbaker]

is there really a safe place to live, earthquakes in Calif, tornadoes se, midwest, southern plaines, blizzards and noreaster's in the ne? We all live in a world that is not perfect to live in weather related or not. Almost forgot Hawaii (big island) lava from volcanos, not to mention flooding or mudslides in other parts of the world.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Not surprising there. It just gets stronger and stronger by the hour.

[MWatkins]

and closer to 285 than 295 I think.

Luis...this could come closer than advertised...what are the mets in Pr saying tonight?

MW

[AtlanticWind]

I fix the position now at 13.9 and 47.2 , seems a more westerly motion last few hours.