YeeHaw !!

[flyingphish]

Hints of weakness in the ridge!! Maybe a fish..or grazer afterall. The NHC only hints now.But I feel better, being through this a few times. Things can vary greatly(my favorite disclaimer)after 3 -4 days. Fl. spared from another one (even bigger one) this season.. Hopefully.

[mobilebay]

I don't think thats what they meant at all. I think that was to the people of the Leeward Islands not to let their Guard down.

[flyingphish]

Hang in ther Mobile and you will start to get it. I think it is a long term play..weather,trends etc. History will usually beat an expert..particularily in the art of "weather forecastry". Weather has simply been around much longer!

[Air Force Met]

Hints of weakness in the ridge!! Maybe a fish..or grazer afterall. The NHC only hints now.But I feel better, being through this a few times. Things can vary greatly(my favorite disclaimer)after 3 -4 days. Fl. spared from another one (even bigger one) this season.. Hopefully.

I don't think thats what they meant at all. I think that was to the people of the Leeward Islands not to let their Guard down.

That's exactly what they were saying Mobilebay. If anything...the NHC with that statement was saying that this has a better chance of being a Florida storm since they are hinting that this could maybe hit the northern Islands.

The reason we know that they are not talking about Florida, flyingphish, is that Frances will not be anywhere near Florida in 4 or 5 days...so the only reason to give that warning is to let those where it will be near to not dismiss it.

[mobilebay]

Point taken. However I do not believe that this will be a fish. Hurricanes do not turn north into builging 500MB Subtropical Ridges. See Andrew 1992. Just my two cents. Not trying to be a Smartbutt. This is a reply to flyingphish.

[Air Force Met]

Point taken. However I do not believe that this will be a fish. Hurricanes do not turn north into builging 500MB Subtropical Ridges. See Andrew 1992. Just my two cents. Not trying to be a Smartbutt. This is a reply to flyingphish.

Nope...I don't think this will be a fish either. I think the best case scenario now is a sweeping hit on the outer banks...but that is even looking less likely.

Upper level winds also look very favorable throughout the period. It will definetly be interesting.

[flyingphish]

You folks are focusing on the immediate threat. I am a long termer..the storm will find a weakness..long way off..and pretty strong. I guess we are watching different movies..eh?

[Air Force Met]

You folks are focusing on the immediate threat. I am a long termer..the storm will find a weakness..long way off..and pretty strong. I guess we are watching different movies..eh?

Point to a particular model at a particular time and please tell me where the weakness is that Frances will find. Please tell me where the movie you are watching is playing. Data is good....give me something besides gut feelings or hunches. If you say you are seeing something that is a long way off and pretty strong...tell me where and when. Give me a link.

[flyingphish]

I do not use models....I USE MY HEAD.

[bahamaswx]

That was the stupidest thing I've ever heard.

[mobilebay]

That was the stupidest thing I've ever heard.

DITO. I've stopped trying to reason with this guy.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Maybe someone should tell flyingphish that he DOESN'T control Frances...MOTHER NATURE does!!!!

[Janie34]

I do not use models....I USE MY HEAD.

You mean you can work out all of those equations in your head?? You must be quite the mathmatician.

It would take a single person months to figure out the physics and calculus of a 5-day forecast by hand. Thats why we have the models to do these things for us, especially on a synoptic scale. The models aren't there to look pretty on a computer screen. Either you aren't aware of the complexity of tropical meteorology (and that holds true for the whole field, really) or you're just posting about trying to stir up trouble. Which is it?

[mobilebay]

This is an example of Someone proven wrong from his original post. However, instead of saying that, he keeps using these gut feeling sayings to keep from admitting he is wrong. He thought origanally that the NHC was puting that disclaimer in to say that the storm was going to be a fish. When he was proven wrong he went off into LA- LA land.

[SwampDawg]

Come on everybody....don't be too hard on him. Just in case it would happen to turn north.....then we'll have to listen to him again.....LOL

[vbhoutex]

To each his own opinion!!! Mr. pfish has his and we have ours. I like AFM do rely on data and like Mr. pfish also rely on past experiences and climatology. It all goes into the equation. Those of us that are less versed in the many twists and turns of forecasting make our best guesses and look to the pro's for more detailed analysis and explanation. Makes more sense to me to use EVERYTHING at my disposal as opposed to using my (SUBSTANTIAL) gut feeling to forecast.

[Air Force Met]

I do not use models....I USE MY HEAD.

Given the two choices...I'll stick with the computer models.

[jlauderdal]

I do not use models....I USE MY HEAD.

Given the two choices...I'll stick with the computer models.

Given the choice between AFM and Phish I am sticking with AFM.

[alicia-w]

you know what else? now may be the perfect time to check your homeowners insurance. Because property values have skyrocketed in our neighborhood (almost double in the last two years), we decided to check our policy and found it to be woefully inadequate. If something REALLY bad happened as a result of a hurricane, it came nowhere near covering the cost of rebuilding our house as it stands. We fixed that this last week.

I dont know for sure what the time frame is for amending your policy when a storm is in the area...

[Brent]

I do not use models....I USE MY HEAD.

Given the two choices...I'll stick with the computer models.

Given the choice between AFM and Phish I am sticking with AFM.