The GFS (AVN) is on drugs again.....

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm


WOW....It changes more than Kerry does...

[Scott_inVA]

GFS is jumpy b/c it's uncertain about trof placement so the Fri 6Z is a "Bladerunner"...going right over Haiti and Cuba then into the GOM. But the GFS up to 72 hours certainly has been decent.

But the TX, er, Charleston, er, Yarmouth Nova Scotia, er, Hilton Head, er, fish, er, Keys, er, Savannah, er Texas is entertaining

Scott

[Derecho]

If all of the other global models:

1) Ran every 6 hours like the GFS, instead of every 12

2) Had a 16 day forecast, instead of 6 or 7 days...

They'd flop around as much or more, than the GFS. Be careful of the above two facts affecting your judgement of the model relative to other models.

Notice the first 3-4 days of the GFS stays fairly consistent.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

You got that right, Scott!

[Scott_inVA]

...
Notice the first 3-4 days of the GFS stays fairly consistent.

This is the the key to analyzing model forecast trends and the reason why the GFS, while often considered laughable, remains IMO the best there is for TCs in the short/medium range.