Frances Advisories

[James]

We may find that the intensity is increased significantly at the next advisory.

[jlauderdal]

Looking at the sat pics this morning. I believe Frances is much stronger than 5am advisory than indicated. The eye doesn't look ragged to me and you can see in the latest visible images now. It's small and circular, not something typically see with a Cat 1 hurricane.. It's at least strong Cat 2, if not 3.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

Remember Bonnie, small eye but not a cat 2 or 3. It does look good but looks arent everything.

[Matthew5]

Remember Charley! It looked like this or very close



Look at the latest of it!
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

However, based on the most recent model runs, it appears the sub-tropical ridge will be stronger, and no trough. Wich leads me to believe GOM. Not trying to be a homer, thats just the way I see it.

Me too...but I think it will clip Fla...pretty good...

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

[Thunder44]

Looking at the sat pics this morning. I believe Frances is much stronger than 5am advisory than indicated. The eye doesn't look ragged to me and you can see in the latest visible images now. It's small and circular, not something typically see with a Cat 1 hurricane.. It's at least strong Cat 2, if not 3.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

Remember Bonnie, small eye but not a cat 2 or 3. It does look good but looks arent everything.

The differences here is that Bonnie never showed eye in visible or infrared sat imgaes. It also wasn't already a Cat one hurricane before then either.

[jlauderdal]

Looking at the sat pics this morning. I believe Frances is much stronger than 5am advisory than indicated. The eye doesn't look ragged to me and you can see in the latest visible images now. It's small and circular, not something typically see with a Cat 1 hurricane.. It's at least strong Cat 2, if not 3.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

Remember Bonnie, small eye but not a cat 2 or 3. It does look good but looks arent everything.

The differences here is that Bonnie never showed eye in visible or infrared sat imgaes. It also wasn't already a Cat one hurricane before then either.

There was never an eye with Bonnie? I think we need a third party to confirm that.

[Matthew5]

Bonnie had a very small eye about 10 nmi in size. But it did have a eye with 65 mph winds! Or is it the Bonnie your talking about the one that formed in 1998! In that case it had a more banding eye.


Here is Bonnie of 1998!
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropica ... 38D_G8.gif

As you can see that is a banding eye. That eye is not tight like Frances eye right now!

[logybogy]

The 5am discussion says that some models have it paralleling 20 degrees North.

How strong will that ridge be?

[HurricaneGirl]

You can see the eye come out really good in this loop:


http://www.hurricanetrack.com/animation/sat/hurrsec/ir/ir.html

[jlauderdal]

Looking at the sat pics this morning. I believe Frances is much stronger than 5am advisory than indicated. The eye doesn't look ragged to me and you can see in the latest visible images now. It's small and circular, not something typically see with a Cat 1 hurricane.. It's at least strong Cat 2, if not 3.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

Remember Bonnie, small eye but not a cat 2 or 3. It does look good but looks arent everything.

The differences here is that Bonnie never showed eye in visible or infrared sat imgaes. It also wasn't already a Cat one hurricane before then either.

There was never an eye with Bonnie? I think we need a third
party to confirm that.

I went to a third party and found this:

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN 8 MILE WIDE CLOSED EYEWALL AT
22Z ALONG WITH 56 KT WINDS AT 1500 FT FLIGHT LEVEL JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. SINCE THEN THE EYEWALL HAS DETERIORATED SOME AND
EXPANDED TO 20 MILES. BASED ON THIS...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 45
KT. IT IS RATHER UNUSUAL TO REPORT A CLOSED EYEWALL WITH WINDS
LESS THAN HURRICANE FORCE.

[Thunder44]

Never said Bonnie didn't have an eye. You just didn't see it in the sat pics. An eye appearance on sat pics indicates a stronger storm.

[jlauderdal]

Never said Bonnie didn't have an eye. You just didn't see it in the sat pics. An eye appearance on sat pics indicates a stronger storm.

Thats right which is exactly my point...you can't look at sat pictures and make a definitive statment like this is a 2 or 3. Bonnie had an eye and it didn;t show up...frances as an eye and it shows up but you can't say it is a 3 because it looks great. I bet Frnaces is a 2 or 3 within 24 hours or sooner thoughw hich will be confirmed by NHC.

[AussieMark]

Bonnie in 1998 was a category 3 at this point.



Despite no well defined eye present.

So the eye is not the only constant.

[canegrl04]

I think Frances wil either sock it to S. Florida,then enter the Gulf,or enter the Gulf relatively untouched .

[KWT]

I wouldn't rule out Frances being a cat-2 very soon,prehaps within the next 12 hours.

[AussieMark]

I wouldn't rule out Frances being a cat-2 very soon,prehaps within the next 12 hours.

it may be a cat 2 next advisory for all we know.

[KWT]

yes tropicalweatherwatcher

another hurricane that didn't have a eye until it was a strong cat-2 was hurricane alex this year.

[NCWeatherChic]

Rutt-Ro!!!

[canegrl04]

GOM would be nightmare scenario Worse than Charley