Why the tropical models point towards Puerto Rico?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148496
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Why the tropical models point towards Puerto Rico?
There is a difference from the tropical models (Bamd,Bamm,Lbar) which show Frances making landfall here in Puerto Rico and the globals (GFS,UKMET,NOGAPS,CMC) showing Frances passing north of PR.Here already many people after the TV woman at univision showed the lines of the models pointing towards here haved started to panic a little so those gurus in the model thing explain that big diference.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Weatherboy1
- Category 5
- Posts: 1190
- Age: 50
- Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
- Location: Jupiter/Sarasota, FL
run off GFS fields, right?
I'm not an expert, but I believe the tropical models are run off the GFS synoptic forecast. So they analyze what a tropical system will do within the broader environment forecast by the GFS. Since the GFS appears to be much stronger with the ridge now, the tropicals are forecasting various versions of a westerly, rather than WNW path. The other globals (UKMET, etc.) rely on different interpretations of the atmospheric environment.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 397 guests