Frances Advisories

[Josephine96]

Yes Fego.. the Alert Mode continues for you guys

[Stormcenter]

Unfortunately history does not influence a storm in progress. If the ridge builds and maintains as forecast it doesn't look good for the east coast right now.

What area of the East coast are you referring to? Remember I did not rule out a Andrew type scenario and as matter a fact in their 11am discussion the NHC seems to be more concerned about a more long term westerly track.

[Josephine96]

Yes the NHC does seem concerned about the Westerly track..

[TLHR]

Georgia rarely get a hurricane because of its location.
North Carolina gets hit so often because it juts out into the Atlantic.
Floyd was the last hurricane to really threaten GA.
I think Floyd was the first time in nearly 100 years that Savannah was placed under an evacuation order.

[Weatherboy1]

And this is my point. There is nothing coming down to break open that ridge. All the action is in the western US and high zonal flow will continue through next week. The ridge will only get stronger given the digging trof in the western US.

I've obviously been following this system closely given the developing synoptic situation and the fact I live in SE FL. What is your best educated guess at what latitude this thing will start getting steered west-ward. And, how strong of a ridge are we talking about? One that could drive the storm due W a la the GFS? Or one that will result in a more WNW path?

I know it's too early to talk about a landfall area. But I am curious if we're looking at more of a potential Georges (1998 -- generally WNW over the islands) track or Andrew (1992 -- due W and even slightly S of W at one point).

[Stormcenter]

I would put
my $ on the out sea scenario right now. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I think you would lose some $ if you did. Here's why.

1) As the NHC pointed out yesterday, the ridge that will be to Frances' north next week is going to be pretty flat...and oriented W-E because of the zonal flow north of it. 2) There are NO major short wave troughs forecasted by any global models expected...matter of fact...there are very few minor ones...the pattern is high zonal over the eastern US. 3) The major longwave trof that is digging into the western US next week will serve to only pump the ridge over the east coast next week...so what we see tha globals doing makes sense.

Bottom line...I think you wuold lose your $ because the odds of something appearing in that zonal pattern that is not forecast...and something that is storng enough to turn the pattern from high zonal to low zonal over the central or eastern US...is low.

Air Force Met you're right based on the "current" weather pattern I would lose my $ and after reading the 11am discussion I'm tilting more to the Andrew type path. Which does
NOT bold well for Florida again especially southeast Florida.

[Air Force Met]

I've obviously been following this system closely given the developing synoptic situation and the fact I live in SE FL. What is your best educated guess at what latitude this thing will start getting steered west-ward. And, how strong of a ridge are we talking about? One that could drive the storm due W a la the GFS? Or one that will result in a more WNW path?

I think that 25N is the westward latitude. The ridge is really not overly powerful...but it is flat and extends westward for a good distance...and there is nothing in the forecast that will cause a big break...so...w-wnw looks like the option for now. With its slow movement...we are talking 7-10 days away...and something could change by that time. If it picks up speed in 3 days are so...a Florida landfall is a better bet. If it continue to move slow...then my bet is further up the coast.

[Josephine96]

I just checked out the NHC's experimental 5 day track.. and with that westward movement apparently continuing.. It looks like Frances will be making a beeline for either South Florida or even the peninsula..

I know we have several days to watch it.. But the thought of going through 2 major hurricanes {possibly} in less than a month is just a tad bit nerve racking lol

[dixiebreeze]

track for the time being? Looks that way on IR right now. Looks more westerly. Could be my imagination. Thoughts anyone?

[alicia-w]

Where are the tampa bay indians????
And please dont say anything about the "seminole hard rock casino"

Actually there were Indians in the area around the 15th century or earlier, the Timucuans.

http://www.timucuan.org/inthename.html

[ncweatherwizard]

Again, the intensity is on the high end of the scale here. The track forecast is basically the same. I'm not going to etch anything in stone here, but if you're Florida..relax, I won't make a sure call yet, but I seriously can't see this going that far maintaining its direction.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html

[boca]

Dixie my imagination says the opposite Frances is moving more northwest than west.

[golter]

I see a more nnw than anything else.

[alicia-w]

Holy cow, they'll step out and make an intensification forecast but not one for direction? I havent seen the NHC go as far as a CAT 5; anyone else? If they're gonna go out that far on the limb, tell us where it's gonna go too.

[Guest]

yeah, although it could just be a wobble. I do agree with nnw/nw at this time.

[Guest]

I think it goes into NC, but I do think a cat 5 is possible. I'm not saying it would hit as a cat 5 though. The NHC never says a system will go cat 5.

[alicia-w]

I meant for this storm.

[SunnyThoughts]

Dixie, we must have the same imagination, because it does look a little more westward to me also. Probably just a jog, im sure we'll see the stairstep motion continue in the coming days as well. Eye certianly is looking nice on satellite.

[btangy]

97L and 98L are also complicating factors. If the models are incorrect in the timing of that meager trough (and it is very meager) capturing those two systems, that may induce some northward motion in Frances in the post-5 day time frame. The 00Z UKMET hints at this right at 144 hrs. This will be more likely if one of the systems strengthens.

Also, the CMC shows Frances picking up quite a bit of forward motion by day 4. A very fast moving hurricane north of the islands (see Debby in 2000) could cause a decoupling of the LLC and upper level circulation. Not likely, but something to look out for if Frances gets caught in some strong low level westerly flow.

[kittcat]

Some of you may be aware of the Hebert Box. Many major hurricanes that have hit Florida have travelled through this box first. Here's an article that explains in further detail.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... 03box.html