Frances Advisories

[alicia-w]

I thought several of our real no-kidding mets (on this board), said the CMC was USELESS.

[chadtm80]

Definatly not West in the last couple of hours.. NNW more like it..

[ncweatherwizard]

Remember, 135kts is a max Cat. 4, and 140kts is a Cat. 5. As for your later period track, give me another day, and I may decide which side of the fence to get on.

[alicia-w]

Very interesting! But a key point to keep in mind is this:

"Many storms that went through the two boxes did not hit Southeast Florida. But, he said, "We want people to get all excited when a storm goes through the box. You'd better pay attention. They have plenty of time to become major hurricanes."

[Stormcenter]

I think it goes into NC, but I do think a cat 5 is possible. I'm not saying it would hit as a cat 5 though. The NHC never says a system will go cat 5.

Don't take offense to this but I'll believe it when I see it as to the 135 mph knot winds prediction. As I stated in another post I still think a lot can happen based on Frances current position and rate of movement. So in football terms it's only the middle of the 1st quarter and there is alot can change still.

[Josephine96]

I heard about the box a lot last year.. I think it's an interesting phenomenon

[tropicsgal]

Very interesting article. Never heard of this hebert box before.

[c5Camille]

Andrew didn't get in the box...
so... ?

[AussieMark]

yes it is interesting.

Interestingly enough Charley went through Herberts Box 2.

[chris_fit]

Also interesting how France's is wobbling a little to the north now to avoid this thing. :-D

Frances still lookin like an Andrew to me in terms of track

[SunnyThoughts]

Its amazing when you refresh a sat loop what you might see lol. I do agree NW movement right now.

[Ola]

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 11


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 27, 2004



The motion is now 300/09. Frances remains on track and has begun to
slow down. A northwestward jog may occur...but it is expected to be
short-lived as the weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north
of Frances is forecast to quickly fill in as the shortwave trough
noted in water vapor imagery along 52w longitude continues to zip
along eastward.

[Trader Ron]

135 knots is really a borderline Cat 5..

[RevDodd]

I havent seen the NHC go as far as a CAT 5; anyone else? If they're gonna go out that far on the limb, tell us where it's gonna go too.

I don't reckon they need to call a storm a Cat 5. they can just say "major hurricane" and get folks' attention. And I imainge it's a lot easier to predict the intensity, owing to conditions at hand, than it is to predict direction based on events that have yet to occur.

[canegrl04]

The most difficult thing to do is predict a hurricane's intensity.Who would have ever thought Charley would've been a strong cat 4?Or that Andrew would be a cat 5? Anything is possible.Frances could be a 5.

[WeatherEmperor]

No offense or anything man, but Id rather put my faith in the NHC forecasts, but I really commend your forecasting efforts nonetheless.

<RICKY>

[Josephine96]

Isabel was at 160 mph at 1 point last year then she weakened..

[Rainband]

Holy cow, they'll step out and make an intensification forecast but not one for direction? I havent seen the NHC go as far as a CAT 5; anyone else? If they're gonna go out that far on the limb, tell us where it's gonna go too.

That was a NHC forecast

[MWatkins]

Since I will probably not get a chance this afternoon to answer some questions that have been asked elsewhere...I'll do my best to anticipate these questions in the following S2K update format. This is not official information...but does consider that Frances will stay close to the NHC forecast track and within the associated cone of uncertainty. Also...forecast errors at 5 days are 300 nautical miles...and hurricanes are not points but large weather systems.

CURRENT INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT

Currently...Frances appears to be moving to the WNW to NW near 10 MPH. This motion has been anticipated by the global models and the NHC for some time and does not represent any change in thinking in terms of the ultimate track of this system. Stronger hurricanes do wobble...so short-term jogs to the N then W are completely possible and should not be read as a true change in motion.

Intensification appears to have leveled off just a bit from earlier today...however...given the very impressive outflow and warm sea-surface temps ahead of the system intensification to a category three hurricane should occur within the next 12 hours. Frances is expected to remain a dangerous Category 3 hurricane throughout the foreseeable future...but could very well be stronger than that by day 5.

5 DAY FORECAST MOTION

Frances should continue moving to the northwest for another 2 days time...thereafter...it will begin bending back to the west in response to a building 500MB ridge. The GFS guidance currently coming out suggests that the track should stay clear of Puerto Rico on the northeast side...but there is still considerable uncertainty about that...so residents there should still watch Frances closely over the weekend.

The system currently located near Bermuda is expected to move to the west over the next 3 days or so. At this time significant intensification is not expected but this system could become a tropical depression or tropical storm. However...neither this system...nor the one expected to move inland over SC in a couple of days...are expected to have any direct impact on the track of Frances. These systems will be too far removed...and in fact have been modeled/represented in the GFS guidance in some form over the past few days. These features are expected to clear out of the pattern well in advance of Frances.

EXTENDED MOTION

Beyond 5 days...of course...forecast errors are quite high. However...looking at the pattern presented by the global models...the Atlantic ridge will strengthen and push Frances to the west. The 6Z GFS...for example...had Frances missing Florida to the SOUTH in the extended period. The 00Z European model places a well-developed hurricane in the south/east Bahamas and a well-established 500MB ridge spanning into the southeast US. So...a possible threat to the US east coast seems very possible. It is too early to tell where...specifically. This system COULD pass into the gulf if it crosses Florida south of 28N...but that is a LONG way off.

MISC QUESTIONS

Q:When will this impact the US if it does at all?: A:It still appreas this could be another 8 days from the US coast...however...we could see the system impact the US East Coast sooner if the forward motion is faster than officially forecast.

I will update this post with model information as it comes out (after 4PM today probably). Of course...other Storm2K forecasters may tack on to this update as well.

MW

[chris_fit]

Nice Thanks