FL is Safe...Trust me..

[Josephine96]

LOL.. I think we're all people I disagree with in some regard at 1 time or another

[Air Force Met]

LOL

I still think it's possible it could be a fish, but it looks unlikely to me. The models would have to be wrong with that ridge.

Yep...they would have to totally miss something that would break that ridge. That would be a major model bust and the chances of that happening are a lot less than them being right.

[kevin]

Yep...they would have to totally miss something that would break that ridge. That would be a major model bust and the chances of that happening are a lot less than them being right.<<

Even with the two systems which might develop to the north?

[Brent]

Yep...they would have to totally miss something that would break that ridge. That would be a major model bust and the chances of that happening are a lot less than them being right.<<

Even with the two systems which might develop to the north?

Unless those two systems are still around in a week, they will have no impact IMO.

[DESTRUCTION5]

DESTRUCTION5, please give this man an answer I would love to read the facts.

Give me some meteorological reasoning. It is OK to have an opinion...but please back it up with some facts other than I've seen this before.

There is no logical answer but climatoligy...weather changes every friggin day...Patterns change ...You can not possibly predict landfall 10 days out...There is no way..Florida has taken thier hit this year and never in history and this is never that a Major hurricane has hit twice in one year....There's the facts people..History and common weather knowledge!

[Air Force Met]

Since when do the many people I disagree with give their meteorological reasoning? I think we should be fair on this.

And that doesn't mean I didn't appreciate Air Force Met's insights, because I do. =) Just don't want people going rabid over this guy, and then when someone like Air Force Met questions a wishcaster they say 'Well I can have my own opinions' or 'Well I wasn't really predicting a category 2^8 hurricane'

My hearburn is this: There are a lot of lurkers here and most don't know the diff of who anyone is. When anyone comes on here and says don't worry...it WILL do this or that...then they need to be prepared to back it up...especially when it differs than the forecast models.

Saying a storm WILL do something is not giving an opinion...it is giving a fact and all facts should be backed up. Anything less is like having a fight with my wife: She unloads her "feelings" about something which usually cannot be supported by facts....and is usally disproven by facts.

So...many times I feel like I'm debating with my wife...my facts...her "feelings." Maybe that explains my hostility

[mf_dolphin]

And never is recorded history have the same exact weather patterns existed that are in place today and for the next week. To say Florida or any other place is safe at this point in time is just not backed by facts.

[LCfromFL]

I think it's silly to make absolute statements about anything when a storm is this far out...

'Frances will be a fish!'

'Frances will be a FL issue!'

'Frances will be a SC/NC issue!'

'Frances will be a GOM issue!'

...any are possible. And it's waaaaaaaaay to early to declare with any certainty - at all - any of these things.

So let's all focus on what we know- and we can speculate on what we think will happen - but let's frame those speculations as just that - speculations.

Now hug your neighbor, all join hands and join me in a round of kum-by-ya...

[Air Force Met]

Yep...they would have to totally miss something that would break that ridge. That would be a major model bust and the chances of that happening are a lot less than them being right.<<

Even with the two systems which might develop to the north?

Because of her slow movement, I think they will be out of the way by the time any weakness could influence her. Synoptically, they will move in and then north...pull out to the northeast. Then...in response...the ridge builds back in. Add to that the heat that is being injected into the ridge by the longwave trof to the west...and you have an even stronger ridge. If she was moving at 15-20 kts...then she may be there in time to take the weakness...but she's not and she won't. The ridge will be built back in a couple of days before Frances gets there.

[Air Force Met]

I think it's silly to make absolute statements about anything when a storm is this far out...

'Frances will be a fish!'

'Frances will be a FL issue!'

'Frances will be a SC/NC issue!'

'Frances will be a GOM issue!'

...any are possible. And it's waaaaaaaaay to early to declare with any certainty - at all - any of these things.

So let's all focus on what we know- and we can speculate on what we think will happen - but let's frame those speculations as just that - speculations.

Now hug your neighbor, all join hands and join me in a round of kum-by-ya...

Bravo. That is what I am saying. There is a big difference when you say "might because of A, B and C" and when you say "WILL...with no supporting data." Especially to those who know nothing about meteorology and don't know the differnce between an informed hypothesis and a WAG.

[kevin]

Okay, thats pretty solid. Its kind of odd the forecasts are seeming to be more cut in stone lately. NHC nailed Charley days before landfall, and now this storm is getting progged to go into the Bahamas. Hopefully history doesn't repeat itself.

[c5Camille]

Kevin wrote "NHC nailed Charley days before landfall, and now this storm is getting progged to go into the Bahamas. Hopefully history doesn't repeat itself."

that's just it... Frances is NOT progged to go into the
Bahamas... It's progged to be SW of there...

the NHC doesn't prog out 6 to 10 days...

[Air Force Met]

Okay, thats pretty solid. Its kind of odd the forecasts are seeming to be more cut in stone lately. NHC nailed Charley days before landfall, and now this storm is getting progged to go into the Bahamas. Hopefully history doesn't repeat itself.

Here's another way to look at this. Take a look at the 5 day position and track....still moving at about 285. Now...look at where it is. What would have to happen to make it turn so sharply to the NW then N then NE in order that is misses the east coast? That would have to be a very sharp turn...and a really storng trough. Now ask yourself...are the global models totally blind and cannot see that huge trof that has to be there in order to turn this? I think not.

[ChaserUK]

I just don't see a fish either. No way, not a chance.

[joseph01]

...but please back it up with some facts

Or something else.

If destructions is wrong, I say he should send every participant in this thread a check for $10.00.

Joseph

[Guest]

...but please back it up with some facts

Or something else.

If destructions is wrong, I say he should send every participant in this thread a check for $10.00.

Joseph

In that case I'm just dropping by this thread to say hello & make an easy 10 bucks...Thanks

[Huckster]

DESTRUCTION5, please give this man an answer I would love to read the facts.

Give me some meteorological reasoning. It is OK to have an opinion...but please back it up with some facts other than I've seen this before.

There is no logical answer but climatoligy...weather changes every friggin day...Patterns change ...You can not possibly predict landfall 10 days out...There is no way..Florida has taken thier hit this year and never in history and this is never that a Major hurricane has hit twice in one year....There's the facts people..History and common weather knowledge!

The weather does not keep records and it has no axe to grind. It has no quota for storms nor does it have a limit. Assuming the pattern was correct, and there were 5 category 5 hurricanes ready and loaded, there's no reason why they could not all hit the same place (of course, that would be some sort of sick fantasy world where SST's did not drop either). The fact is, like you said, weather patterns do change, and that is the cause for concern with Frances. The pattern is totally different from that which brought Charley into Florida. Charley got picked up by a trough and moved NNE. Frances, if it hits Florida, would likely ride the ridge westward. If the weather patterns never changed since Charley, Frances would not be a concern. This is just a whole new and different scenario.

Anway, two major hurricanes did hit Florida in 1964, Dora and Isbell. And there have been several other years when multiple hurricane strikes have occurred in Florida and elsewhere.

[Brent]

...but please back it up with some facts

Or something else.

If destructions is wrong, I say he should send every participant in this thread a check for $10.00.

Joseph

In that case I'm just dropping by this thread to say hello & make an easy 10 bucks...Thanks

ROFL!!!!

AFM is right. Just look at the NHC track. As soon as I saw the 5-day position I knew this wasn't going to recurve. The track would have to be off badly for it to miss the U.S.

[Pebbles]

Just click the PayPal button below and donate my $10 to S2K

[joseph01]

In that case I'm just dropping by this thread to say hello & make an easy 10 bucks...Thanks Very Happy

Okay...now I'm thinking $10.00 for each post.