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Air Force Met
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Josephine96
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sfwx
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"There is no logical answer but climatoligy...weather changes every friggin day...Patterns change ...You can not possibly predict landfall 10 days out...There is no way..Florida has taken thier hit this year and never in history and this is never that a Major hurricane has hit twice in one year....There's the facts people..History and common weather knowledge."
How long is "history"? Since records have been kept? Does it ever occur to you that we may be in a 1,000 year weather cycle? We base things on what has happened over the past 150 years. Big Deal!! Any area could get hit 5 years in a row and some more than once in a year. Don't let "recorded" history fool you.
Eric
How long is "history"? Since records have been kept? Does it ever occur to you that we may be in a 1,000 year weather cycle? We base things on what has happened over the past 150 years. Big Deal!! Any area could get hit 5 years in a row and some more than once in a year. Don't let "recorded" history fool you.
Eric
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southerngale
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DESTRUCTION5 wrote:cinlfla wrote:DESTRUCTION5, please give this man an answer I would love to read the facts.Give me some meteorological reasoning. It is OK to have an opinion...but please back it up with some facts other than I've seen this before.
There is no logical answer but climatoligy...weather changes every friggin day...Patterns change ...You can not possibly predict landfall 10 days out...There is no way..Florida has taken thier hit this year and never in history and this is never that a Major hurricane has hit twice in one year....There's the facts people..History and common weather knowledge!
I guess you missed this post. And I am confident in Perry's research.
SouthernWx wrote:I made a friend angry today....a buddy who also volunteers as a storm spotter and sometimes chases severe storms. Why?...because he is totally convinced that another major hurricane won't make landfall on the Florida peninsula in 2004.
His belief is "it can't happen....two major hurricanes have never struck Florida in the same season, so I don't believe it can happen". To begin with, two major hurricanes HAVE impacted the Florida peninsula in the same season before.....at least twice since 1845. In 1848, the Tampa Bay area was ravaged by two cat-3 hurricanes less than a month apart.
In September 1950, major hurricane "Easy" struck the Cedar Key and Bayport areas with 120 mph winds....followed six weeks later by small but intense hurricane "King", which slammed into Miami near midnight on October 17th, producing 150 mph gusts in downtown Miami. In 1964, hurricanes Cleo, Dora, and Isbell all impacted the Florida peninsula as cat-2 hurricanes. They could have just as easily been major hurricanes (in fact, hurricanes Cleo and Dora were both extremely close to cat-3 intensity at landfall).
In addition, I tried to convince my friend that it didn't matter whether Florida hadn't never been struck twice by major hurricanes in the same season or not (even though Florida has). There are plenty of examples in hurricane history of areas slammed twice or even more times by powerful hurricanes in the same year. In 1955, North Carolina was slammed by hurricanes Connie and Ione only weeks apart...both major hurricanes. In 1954, hurricanes Carol and Edna roared up the eastern seaboard....both cat-3 hurricanes upon reaching southern New England.....then in mid-October, powerful cat-4 hurricane Hazel accelerated up the eastern seaboard. Even though Hazel made landfall near the SC/ NC border, winds in excess of 100 mph occurred across most of the east coast beachfront areas....a 113 mph gust measured as far north as Central Park in the heart of New York City.
When it comes to severe weather, nothing is certain....there are no absolutes on what can and can't happen. Just because something hasn't ever happened before doesn't mean it can't or won't. Before April 3, 1974 there had never been a day in which 30 violent tornadoes touched down across the U.S. within an 18 hour period. Before Camille blasted ashore late on August 17, 1969 there had never been a cat-5 hurricane to make landfall on the Gulf Coast. Before 1957, there had never been a cat-4 landfalling hurricane in America before August....hurricane Audrey changed all that on June 27th of that year, and ended 400 precious lives in the process.
I've heard folks say things like "I'm not worried about a violent tornado striking Douglasville (my Georgia hometown), because it's never happened here". I try my best to tell them...there's always a first time. There had never been a F-5 tornado in the state of Pennsylvania either....at least not until the afternoon of May 31, 1985. There had never been a raging blizzard in Birmingham, Alabama...at least until it happened in March 1993.
No matter where you live along the U.S. coastline....take the rest of this hurricane season seriously. Take hurricane Frances seriously, even if you live in Punta Gorda or Boca Grande, Florida....don't say "there's already been one major landfalling hurricane here this season; we're safe until next year". That kind of logic can lead to you being buried in an early grave. Multiple major hurricanes have occurred in Florida before....and will again in the future.
If anyone doubts just how unpredictable intense hurricanes paths can be, just check out this link.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
That is the Atlantic hurricane chart for 1996....look at the small area about 600 miles due east of Miami, Florida near 25n/ 70w.
In that small area, at least four and possibly five major hurricanes passed over between July and October. If that had occurred 600 miles farther west, the Florida peninsula would have been bombarded by one major hurricane after another.
Never take major hurricanes for granted....never underestimate their power, and never think your safe because one major hurricane has already struck your state or area. Hurricanes don't read climatology books about what they should and shouldn't be able to do....they also don't place bets in Las Vegas. Hurricane Frances doesn't know the odds are stacked against her making landfall in southern Florida as a major hurricane.....neither will the hurricanes to follow the remainder of this season.
Link: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=38722
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Josephine96 wrote:Oh lord here we go again with this "so and so is safe" again stuff..
Nobody is "safe" until the storm is north of their latitude..
Not entirely true, We've seen storms come back on an area that thought they were in the clear, only to be clobbered, so no one gets a free pass, just because the storm is North of them a little ways . . . . It doesn't happen often, but it DOES happen. . . .
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north
HeartofNC wrote:Josephine96 wrote:Oh lord here we go again with this "so and so is safe" again stuff..
Nobody is "safe" until the storm is north of their latitude..
Not entirely true, We've seen storms come back on an area that thought they were in the clear, only to be clobbered, so no one gets a free pass, just because the storm is North of them a little ways . . . . It doesn't happen often, but it DOES happen. . . .
I love the whole assumption that you're "safe" because a storm is north of your latitude. What about Betsy? hahaha and what about the "Yankee Clipper" hurricane?
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