Frances Advisories

[HeartofNC]

I am already preparing for Frances....

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, 3 majors in one month. Be safe everyone. We don't need another Charley, so hopefully we will at least be prepared. Good job HeartofNC. It never hurts to be prepared.

[HurricaneJim]

"Stay alert to this storm for those on the SE Coast and start making plans now to be safe."

We've got aa good preparedness thread started at UKWeatherworld/tropical

[dhweather]

I havent seen the NHC go as far as a CAT 5; anyone else? If they're gonna go out that far on the limb, tell us where it's gonna go too.

I don't reckon they need to call a storm a Cat 5. they can just say "major hurricane" and get folks' attention. And I imainge it's a lot easier to predict the intensity, owing to conditions at hand, than it is to predict direction based on events that have yet to occur.

Certainly (hopefully??) after Charley, folks realize that a "major hurricane" is just that and don't focus on a single point for landfall.

[ncweatherwizard]

Rather than quoting everyone; I'll just respond generally in random order.

If you would like to check out the verifications from last year go here:

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Check out the verifications for the two years which forecasts have been done in--yeah, really check out those intensity verifications...that ain't a fluke people.

I don't know how this was mixed up for an NHC product--the tan background, the disclaimer at the beginning, the experimental thing at the bottom--the name at the bottom.

Next forecast will be tonight, T.D. 7 forecast around 5PM.

[Hyperstorm]

Big Eyed.. My plans are most likely to just ride it out at my place..

Though I saw from Charley how scary that can be.. I wonder what my countie's EOC is thinking as they watch Frances churn

More importantly...what is your county's electric company thinking?

[Josephine96]

LOL Hyper...

It's taking 2 weeks to get power back from Charley for some people..

[ChaserUK]

LOL Jim - good to see you here.

Yes there is a lot of chatter about Frances. An amazing system this is becoming.

[Lowpressure]

Frances is starting to get the red donut around the eye like Isabel had last year. If she bombs out like Isabel, let's hope recon gets there early enough to record her at her peak intensity, not a day later.

[sunny]

MW - I hope this doesn't sound stupid. But how long can a storm maintain such a strong intensity?

[Hurricanehink]

Mmm... donuts....
Seriously, this thing is huge! It's just getting bigger, and I'm amazed that the dry air never affected it in its developing stages. I'm really hoping for a fish storm....

[Josephine96]

The big question is how strong will she get before she begins weakening..

Didn't Mitch reach about 180-190 before he finally made landfall and God for bid killed an unconfirmed amount of people in the Caribbean..

[Hyperstorm]

Frances is starting to get the red donut around the eye like Isabel had last year. If she bombs out like Isabel, let's hope recon gets there early enough to record her at her peak intensity, not a day later.

Bingo! I hate when that happens. I'm sure Isabel was stronger than the 915mb estimate on the post-analysis...

[Lowpressure]

The big question is how strong will she get before she begins weakening..

Didn't Mitch reach about 180-190 before he finally made landfall and God for bid killed an unconfirmed amount of people in the Caribbean..

Yes, and he camped out in the Nic/Honduran mountains for days. It was terrible for thousands.

[tropicana]

Wow, 3 majors in one month. Be safe everyone. We don't need another Charley, so hopefully we will at least be prepared. Good job HeartofNC. It never hurts to be prepared.

WOW yeah to be more specific... 3 majors in 23 days! Since ALEX attained major intensity on Aug 4th.

Incredible.

-justin-

[PurdueWx80]

Your right, Subtract 4 hours from UTC to get EDT. The 28 is the day of the month the flight is scheduled.

Thank you - I was thinking 6 hours back to central but that's not during Daylight Savings Time.

5 hours for CDT. Once the time changes, it'll be 5 hours for EST and 6 hours for CST.

Confused yet?

Unless you're in most of Indiana, which never changes, so it's always five. UNLESS you live near Chicago, Evansville or Louisville...then you change. LOL...now you should be confused.

[Guest]

Yeah, Mitch caused super flooding. Now that its intensifying even stronger and faster than forecasted, the short term question (within a week) is: will it reach cat 5?

[Guest]

Remember all the discussion on the news when Isabel hit Cat 5? Even if itthey didnt think it would hit land, they were talking about it so much!

[c5Camille]

if she can keep her forward speed... and
not encounter difficulty... weekening isn't
a given... all she needs is fuel... and there
is plenty of that to be had in the area... Keep
in mind that she hasen't even hit +80-82 water
temps yet...

[stormernie]

I now there is a lot of speculation on Frances moving toward the state of florida and the media here is starting to hype it up. However, latest model runs and the fact that we may have a Tropical Depression or even a storm form south of Bermuda increases the chances of Frances moving on a more Northwesterly track toward the Carolinas or points north.

While there is certainly always a chance that the storm would head in a beeline toward the state, the pattern itself is not setting up for this type of track.

As always comments are welcome