*ALL* models are in good agreement now..

[dhweather]

this situation is getting more and more interesting

By Monday or Tuesday, folks will be going nuts over Frances.

Then of course, TD7 may be G really quick too.

It's looking more and more like Frances will head towards Florida,
and maybe into the GOM.

[Karebear]

Stupid question. Does this mean MD mets will quit worrying about Frances?

[dhweather]

I'd not say "no worries" for Maryland, but your odds are rapidly decreasing each advisory.

[Karebear]

Sounds good to me. Thanks.

[PurdueWx80]

Stupid question. Does this mean MD mets will quit worrying about Frances?

You should absolutely not stop worrying about Frances. That isn't to say you should go crazy and get yourself all worked up, but this storm is thousands of miles away still. There is PLENTY of time for small changes that the models may not see. This is particularly true because of the new TD 7 and what could happen with the low south of Bermuda. These two systems will no doubt modify the environment - most models don't have either of them now, and if they develop the models will have to catch up. Anyone from FL to New England is still fair game, as is the Gulf.

[Karebear]

Not to sound over panicky, but we learned from Isabel last year, so we have our supply kit so to say. Plenty of batteries, flashlights, etc. I even had my landlord trim up the trees. Kinda ticked him off, but hey too many trees went down during Isabel. I say take no chances.

[adelphi_sky]

I don't like the yellow line. I'm in the DC area and lost a tree and a huge branch just from Isabel. Scary.

[Guest]

so NC maybe out of the woods..

[ColdFront77]

I'm not entirely comfortable about that blue 1

The comfortability "rating" with the blue one should be the same as most, if not all of them for those of us in Florida who aren't keen on having this system.

[ColdFront77]

Stupid question. Does this mean MD mets will quit worrying about Frances?

When a tropical system (of any strength) is approaching land you shoulnd't totally not worry, or what ever similar word you would like to use. These system should be monitored throughout their lifetime in the highest potential landfall areas even the farthest time period out.

[chris_fit]

5 out of 7 of those models aim it towards FL

[hial2]

In my 37 years in S Fla,there has been only 3 hurricanes hitting the area..David grazed in 79, Andrew in 92 and Irene in 99..The many more that came near always turned parallel to the coast and hit somewhere in NC or went out to sea..So the odds are stacked against this storm to come this way..But you know, so are the odds for winning the lotto and someone is always winning it..

Only God knows what is going to happen!!

[EDR1222]

Important to remember, the past 37 years were nothing like the 40 years before it. Nothing is set in stone, but North Carolina is not even close to Florida in hurricane strikes over the long haul. Florida was constantly battered by intense hurricanes in the early part of the century. Two severe hurricanes in the late 1920's, and many other moderate ones. Several moderate storms in the 30's and then a flurry of activity all through the 1940's. Most of these were Atlatic storms that came in from the east.