Frances Advisories

[Weatherboy1]

MW - I hope this doesn't sound stupid. But how long can a storm maintain such a strong intensity?

I can take a stab at this. Most major storms do not maintain Cat 4 or 5 strength continually for a period of days. Assuming atmospheric conditions don't change, they tend to fluctuate quite a bit due to eyewall replacement cycles and other forces. You could see a 115 mph storm go to 140 mph, then back to 125, then up to 135, etc. That said, Isabel maintained at least 135 mph winds for three straight days.

With regards to Frances, if she stays in a favorable environment -- and it appears she will -- there's no reason she can't maintain Cat 3/4 strength for a good, long while unfortunately.

[c5Camille]

too early to tell... way too early.
odds of a Florida, Ga, SC, NC, etc
are all about the same at this point....

if "if" were a skiff... we'd all be fishing...

[Guest]

To give any particular region the all clear when the thing is that far out is not a well thought out statement.

[MortisFL]

Isn't it a little too early to make that assumption?

[MortisFL]

...Nobody is out of the woods yet.

[MortisFL]

sorry about the mulitple posts...

[Stormcenter]

I now there is a lot of speculation on Frances moving toward the state of florida and the media here is starting to hype it up. However, latest model runs and the fact that we may have a Tropical Depression or even a storm form south of Bermuda increases the chances of Frances moving on a more Northwesterly track toward the Carolinas or points north.

While there is certainly always a chance that the storm would head in a beeline toward the state, the pattern itself is not setting up for this type of track.

As always comments are welcome

Actually as another poster noted due to Frances
very slow movement whatever develops by Bermuda may
be long gone by the time Frances has any chance of being
influenced. So I disgree with your Not A Florida storm post.

[PurdueWx80]

too early to tell... way too early.
odds of a Florida, Ga, SC, NC, etc
are all about the same at this point....

Exactly, it's not as if the models are even seeing these two potential systems yet. These storms do more than simply weaken the ridge. They will most likely be long gone by the time Frances is a player and any number of things could happen. There is even a chance these storms could strengthen the ridge as they pump heat into. That would send the storm further W or WSW at some point. Point is, no one should let their guard down one week out. It's the time to start paying more attention, instead of writing it off as a fish or a non-FL hit.

[Stormcenter]

too early to tell... way too early.
odds of a Florida, Ga, SC, NC, etc
are all about the same at this point....

Exactly, it's not as if the models are even seeing these two potential systems yet. These storms do more than simply weaken the ridge. They will most likely be long gone by the time Frances is a player and any number of things could happen. There is even a chance these storms could strengthen the ridge as they pump heat into. That would send the storm further W or WSW at some point. Point is, no one should let their guard down one week out. It's the time to start paying more attention, instead of writing it off as a fish or a non-FL hit.

Good post PurdueWx80.

[sunny]

Thank you for the info. Just not quite sure I like it

[Brent]

Frances could easily hold Cat 3 or Cat 4 for days, but it would likely go up and down. Intense hurricanes have to go through eyewall replacements so it's concievable it could weaken a bit while it's doing that, only to regain it a few hours later.

Now, a system will NOT stay a strong Cat 4 or Cat 5 for days.

[Guest]

wasnt isabel a cat 5/ sometimes cat 4 for 3 4 or 5 days?

[Guest]

too early to tell... way too early.
odds of a Florida, Ga, SC, NC, etc
are all about the same at this point....

Exactly, it's not as if the models are even seeing these two potential systems yet. These storms do more than simply weaken the ridge. They will most likely be long gone by the time Frances is a player and any number of things could happen. There is even a chance these storms could strengthen the ridge as they pump heat into. That would send the storm further W or WSW at some point. Point is, no one should let their guard down one week out. It's the time to start paying more attention, instead of writing it off as a fish or a non-FL hit.

True dat..there is going to be alot of waitin & seein being done.

[Brent]

wasnt isabel a cat 5/ sometimes cat 4 for 3 4 or 5 days?

It was a Cat 5 for about 60 hours if I remember correctly(became one twice).

[dixiebreeze]

Bump for good reads.

[dhweather]

Outstanding outflow, it's quite impressive.

[feederband]

as she goes nw to wnw when she hits the ridge if you are almost due west of her 9 days from now you will be having a very bad day........

[Guest]

I wouldnt rule out minimal hurricane status eventually, but for now Im thinking a strong tropical storm. The boat isn't that great idea... however I like the sub

[Air Force Met]

She will probably peak out and weaken...adn then go through another eyewall cycle and ramp up again.

It really is the luck of the draw as to when they will have eyewall cycles. Frances is far enough out there to actually go through 2 or 3 or them.

It's all about timing.

[Steve Cosby]

I wouldnt rule out minimal hurricane status eventually, but for now Im thinking a strong tropical storm. The boat isn't that great idea... however I like the sub

I think I'd be willing to bet money the Navy has put subs under 'canes numerous times in the past.

The relationship of sonar to water temperature (and churning) is probably too important to ignore.