A Definate Wobble West

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Nimbus
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#21 Postby Nimbus » Fri Aug 27, 2004 8:31 pm

I seem to remember reading somewhere that as storms spin up they have a tendency to track right and as they spin down they track left. By morning we should have a better idea of what the track will be.
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#22 Postby Guest » Fri Aug 27, 2004 8:37 pm

Nimbus wrote:I seem to remember reading somewhere that as storms spin up they have a tendency to track right and as they spin down they track left. By morning we should have a better idea of what the track will be.

Many powerful storms have tracked west for days while intesifying..It depends on the steering currents & how how strong they are.
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#23 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 27, 2004 8:40 pm

Dean...oh yeah. If they thought it was going to pass within 70 miles of some Islands...you bet.

It is certainly something they are having to consider.
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#24 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 27, 2004 8:46 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:A definite (very quick) turn back to 280-290, so much so that the eye wall got tilted from the upper structure. If this track continues tonight a hurricane watch will be needed by early morning Sat. for the islands.


If it stayed moving at 285..it would pass about 70 miles NE of the Islands...and about 120 miles NE of PR.


Tropical Storm Force winds would defintely affect the islands and PR in that case.
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#25 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 27, 2004 8:48 pm

Nimbus wrote:I seem to remember reading somewhere that as storms spin up they have a tendency to track right and as they spin down they track left. By morning we should have a better idea of what the track will be.


:roflmao:

Andrew turned straight west and intensified the whole time.
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#26 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 27, 2004 8:51 pm

OK...just did an analysis of movement over the last two hours.

It started off at 15.99/50.03 and is now at 16.16/50.39

That is a movement of 23 nm at a 294 bearing. So...it is moving WNW at about 12 kts over the last 2 hours.
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#27 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 27, 2004 8:57 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek:
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#28 Postby JTD » Fri Aug 27, 2004 9:00 pm

Air Force Met wrote:OK...just did an analysis of movement over the last two hours.

It started off at 15.99/50.03 and is now at 16.16/50.39

That is a movement of 23 nm at a 294 bearing. So...it is moving WNW at about 12 kts over the last 2 hours.


Just as NHC predicted.
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#29 Postby zoeyann » Fri Aug 27, 2004 9:01 pm

So it's more than a wobble? Because if it is more than a wobble I wonder what potential it would have on the track if any. The forecast had it moving NW for at least one more day. What does that mean for the islands.
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#30 Postby Frank P » Fri Aug 27, 2004 9:02 pm

just finished watching the IR loops and it sure hints of a WNW track at the moment....
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#31 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 27, 2004 9:05 pm

IF IF IF it's WNW and not a wobble, it means it'll be south of the NHC track and CLOSER to the islands.
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#32 Postby LowMug » Fri Aug 27, 2004 9:06 pm

The last IR Floater image shows an even more pronounced wobble to the left than what we have been observing the last 2 hours or so...I say another hour of this and we definitely have a bearing change and cause for some early alarms to start sounding whether they be crying wolf or not...all in the name of saving lives and property
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#33 Postby bigmike » Fri Aug 27, 2004 9:08 pm

glad to see we have the nhc forecast staff on this thread :roll:
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#34 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 27, 2004 9:10 pm

bigmike wrote:glad to see we have the nhc forecast staff on this thread :roll:


Uh... we're just basing this on satellite imagery. I said IF it is not a wobble. I didn't say the NHC track is wrong.
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#35 Postby JTD » Fri Aug 27, 2004 9:11 pm

bigmike wrote:glad to see we have the nhc forecast staff on this thread :roll:


Totally uncalled for. Very rude.
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#36 Postby OURAGAN » Fri Aug 27, 2004 9:15 pm

Another Wobble West between 1:15UTC and 1:45UTC
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#37 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 27, 2004 9:16 pm

If this movement continues overnight they will have to put up some watches in the morning and I'll bet Recon. is flying out late tomorrow or very early Sunday.
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#38 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 27, 2004 9:17 pm

3 more hours of a more west movement 285-290 instead of NW 300-305 earlier will indicate a trend not a wobble.
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#39 Postby LowMug » Fri Aug 27, 2004 9:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:3 more hours of a more west movement 285-290 instead of NW 300-305 earlier will indicate a trend.


It has been trending the last 2 hours (I think so anyway) if not than so be it...but are you saying from this point on and 3 hours later would be a trend or is it a rule that about 5-6 hours indicates a trend...thanks
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#40 Postby bigmike » Fri Aug 27, 2004 9:21 pm

jason0509 wrote:
bigmike wrote:glad to see we have the nhc forecast staff on this thread :roll:


Totally uncalled for. Very rude.[/quote

Would you like a hanky?
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