Frances #6--CONUS threat included; and more aggressive...

[ncweatherwizard]

Audio will come out in a few minutes, to try to better explain this situation, but do take a read here.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html

[ncweatherwizard]

Audio now up.

Click the page to the forecast and scroll to the link at the bottom of the forecast page.

[Anonymous]

Not to shoot your projections down, but I see big desscrepancies in your forecast positions and the NHC positions. With this said, why should someone believe your forecast? Why are your projected positions so different from the NHC positions?

I have seen you posts on here NUMEROUS times before with your projections and forecast for other storms, and they always appear to be so far off from what the NHC projects, it makes me wonder what your real objective is.

Here are the NHC projections for Frances. Compare them to yours and explain why and how, yours can be so different!

initial 28/0300z 16.3n 50.5w 100 kt
12hr VT 28/1200z 17.2n 51.7w 105 kt
24hr VT 29/0000z 18.3n 53.3w 110 kt
36hr VT 29/1200z 19.1n 54.9w 115 kt
48hr VT 30/0000z 19.8n 56.8w 115 kt
72hr VT 31/0000z 20.9n 60.9w 115 kt
96hr VT 01/0000z 22.1n 65.4w 115 kt
120hr VT 02/0000z 23.5n 70.0w 115 kt

These are yours.

INIT 16.5N 50.3W 105KTS
12HR 17.5N 51.8W 115KTS
24HR 18.7N 52.9W 120KTS
36HR 20.1N 54.1W 125KTS
48HR 21.6N 56.1W 130KTS
72HR 22.8N 59.9W 130KTS
96HR 23.5N 64.1W 135KTS
120HR 24.4N 68.6W 140KTS

[*StOrmsPr*]

do you think the islands (PR,USV,BVI) are in the clear!! do we have to be concerd about Frances here in PR??


thanks in advance!

[Brent]

do you think the islands (PR,USV,BVI) are in the clear!! do we have to be concerd about Frances here in PR??


thanks in advance!

His track is well north of the islands.

[lilbump3000]

With his track trend she will most likely go out to sea according to him.

[ncweatherwizard]

With his track trend she will most likely go out to sea according to him.

Actually, that's not what I said in the forecast.

[lilbump3000]

I know thats not what you said in the forecast. Trust me i read it, but anyway just keep on doin with you do.

[ncweatherwizard]

Not to shoot your projections down, but I see big desscrepancies in your forecast positions and the NHC positions. With this said, why should someone believe your forecast? Why are your projected positions so different from the NHC positions?

I have seen you posts on here NUMEROUS times before with your projections and forecast for other storms, and they always appear to be so far off from what the NHC projects, it makes me wonder what your real objective is.

Here are the NHC projections for Frances. Compare them to yours and explain why and how, yours can be so different!

initial 28/0300z 16.3n 50.5w 100 kt
12hr VT 28/1200z 17.2n 51.7w 105 kt
24hr VT 29/0000z 18.3n 53.3w 110 kt
36hr VT 29/1200z 19.1n 54.9w 115 kt
48hr VT 30/0000z 19.8n 56.8w 115 kt
72hr VT 31/0000z 20.9n 60.9w 115 kt
96hr VT 01/0000z 22.1n 65.4w 115 kt
120hr VT 02/0000z 23.5n 70.0w 115 kt

These are yours.

INIT 16.5N 50.3W 105KTS
12HR 17.5N 51.8W 115KTS
24HR 18.7N 52.9W 120KTS
36HR 20.1N 54.1W 125KTS
48HR 21.6N 56.1W 130KTS
72HR 22.8N 59.9W 130KTS
96HR 23.5N 64.1W 135KTS
120HR 24.4N 68.6W 140KTS

Actually, I don't see that much of a difference there throughout the period, and especially in the net result at 120 hours--where those coordinates are very close to each other relative to time.

I will say though, that the biggest difference is caused by our uses of model guidance...NHC seems to use it a bit more intensely than I do. Not that I ignore it, but I don't mind throwing out a model with a legit reason--and that's not including not matching my track--I'll throw how a track for systematic or synoptic reasons in most cases.

In this particular situation, I have had the ridge re-establishing itself slower than the models have anticipated--I may end up sliding left, but if I do, I don't think it will be much. Right now I'm not concerned with it terribly--I've been dead on track for four forecasts now--and really if you think about it, the farther south this thing goes...the better for CONUS (more room to make a turn).

[ncweatherwizard]

do you think the islands (PR,USV,BVI) are in the clear!! do we have to be concerd about Frances here in PR??


thanks in advance!

No worries whatsoever; you're fine.

[Guest]

I like your forecast. You don't hide anything (namely the intensity) like the NHC usually does.

[*StOrmsPr*]

do you think the islands (PR,USV,BVI) are in the clear!! do we have to be concerd about Frances here in PR??


thanks in advance!

No worries whatsoever; you're fine.

Ok thanks for answering my questions!!
just in case i will be watching her till she cross 20n you never know!!LOL

[Derek Ortt]

Just because someone gets a different forecast doesnt mean that they are wrong and NHC is right. NHC has and will be wrong in the future. It means that the analysis of the same data can yield two different interpretations, suggesting some uncertainty on future happenings (FYI: I am right of NHC in the latest forecast)