Do models show a through that will spare FL from Frances?

[logybogy]

What is out there that will nudge this storm north? Anything? Why are people thinking this storm will hit the Carolinas?

Is there something in the models that indicate a more north movement or are people just pulling things out of the air?

[Derecho]

What is out there that will nudge this storm north? Anything? Why are people thinking this storm will hit the Carolinas?

Is there something in the models that indicate a more north movement or are people just pulling things out of the air?

Storms naturally move northwards of their own accord, even without a trough. It's called the Beta Effect.

To hit Florida, what you don't need is merely the absence of troughing, you need a really strong, anomalous ridge, with no weaknesses.

Frances is so far away, features in the Westerlies that could generate a trough before landfall are currently over Russia. Something to think about.

[TS Zack]

They have a Shortwave Trough over the Southeast in 2 days but it will shot out quickly and they do have a weakness that this system could ride up. Right now it doesn't look like that trough will pick the system up and push it North. After that a huge ridge will build in and Frances can only move West.

[SouthernWx]

There are a couple of model outliers that currently project Frances on a more northwestward path that would spare the sunshine state and increase the threat to the Carolinas.....HOWEVER, those are the ECMWF and A98. I don't have much confidence in the "Euro" at this time (it had trouble with Isabel at first last season)...and absolutely no confidence in the A98.

There are also a couple models that turn Frances due west and slam it into Puerto Rico and Hispanola...I also discounted them...

Why? I based my evening forecast on a model consensus that is very close to the NHC forecast track through 120 hours. Why do I continue a general WNW path for day 6 and 7 and project landfall in the central/ NW Bahamas and southern Florida? I see medium range model support of reinforcing high pressure building offshore the Northeast U.S....in fact, if this verifies as the GFS continues to insist, the hurricane may turn westward and pass south of mainland Florida into the GOM....either through the Lower Keys or Florida Straits (and if that occurs, we might see a 180+ mph hurricane with the "bathwater" sst's in that area).

Also, major hurricane climatology for early September dictates my concern of a powerful hurricane moving into southern Florida from the east or ESE....this hurricane reminds me of Donna, the great Sept 1947 hurricane, and the Great Miami hurricane....all of which approached SE Florida from a similar direction.

My current forecast isn't a "wishcast". I have plenty of friends who live in southern Florida...I have relatives who live near Sarasota and barely missed being slammed by hurricane Charley. I look at it objectively....and at this time, don't see indications that Frances will deviate from a WNW course until impacting Florida.

One more point....my forecast of 120 kts as Frances passes north of Hispanola and into the Bahamas is likely conservative. If the hurricane becomes extremely intense and large...150 mph or more, the outflow will serve to enhance, or strengthen the high pressure ridge to it's north. I saw both hurricanes Allen and Gilbert cause such an effect....

Some may say "well, Floyd was a monster hurricane and it recurved east of Florida"....but there was a fairly strong trough which caught and recurved Floyd. I see no model indications whatsoever of a similar type scenario in the offing....at least not at this time.

Just my .02 cents worth...

[Frank P]

that was an excellent analysis southernwx and I'm pretty much in agreement with it... its all about the high pressure ridge, if its strong and remains thoughout the forecast period by the time Frances reaches Florida, then that is where this thing is going.... I'm not sure what the confidence levels of the models are in predicting how strong a ridge will be and how long they will remain in effect.... but I've seen many hurricane over the years how, as has most posters who follow these things, a strong high pressure will dominate the steering currents and play a major factor in where the storms will go...

[obxhurricane]

Southernwx has many good points, and he may very well be right on track.

The only thing he missed is TD 7. TD 7 will play a big role for sure. This system will leave the western flank of the ridge "weak" through 84 hours at the very least...and maybe longer. In any case...I would expect Frances to track considerably further N than the GFS indicates...before turning W again...if indeed it does.

I would like to see a few more model runs before I cast my vote. I will say this...it seems favorable for this storm to strike land somewhere...just where? is the question...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Besides TD-Seven, what possible effects might the storm/area of convection near Bermuda have on the future track of Frances if it also develops over the course of the next couple of days? Could it weaken the western part of the ridge even more (when coupled with the effects of TD-Seven), and coupled with the effects of the departing TD-seven bump Frances that much further NW? Any thoughts?

[NorthGaWeather]

Southernwx has many good points, and he may very well be right on track.

The only thing he missed is TD 7. TD 7 will play a big role for sure. This system will leave the western flank of the ridge "weak" through 84 hours at the very least...and maybe longer. In any case...I would expect Frances to track considerably further N than the GFS indicates...before turning W again...if indeed it does.

I would like to see a few more model runs before I cast my vote. I will say this...it seems favorable for this storm to strike land somewhere...just where? is the question...

TD 7 will be out of the picture in a couple days. It may even act to strengthen the ridge as Purdue posted earlier.

[Patrick99]

I live in Miami, and I even *like* hurricanes....I just don't see this one, "at this time" impacting Florida. Right now, I just don't see that there's enough ridging to drive it that far west. Of course, this is obviously subject to change, but when I look at the water vapor loops right now, I don't see a clear path to Florida.

Let's take climatology....storms in this area over history have tended to take 1 of 4 general tracks:

1) Strong East Coast troughing - recurve in vicinity of Bermuda. I guess there's not much support for Frances doing this.

2) Weak troughing and/or weak ridging - recurve into Outer Banks or lazy NW movement toward SC/NC. I see this as the most likely scenario.

3) Vigorous Bermuda High - drive west or west northwest into Florida, into the GOM, second landfall from FL Panhandle to Louisiana. Judging from history, the mere presence of a Bermuda High does not guarantee a FL hit - a FL hit seems to require a *strong* high pressure sitting off the east coast. Is that strong high pressure going to be there when Frances nears? I guess that is the $1,000,000 question.

4) Very strong Atlantic ridging across the board - drive west into Antilles and Caribbean, W Cuba or Yucatan hit, Mexico or Texas.

When I look at historical tracks for storms in this area at this time of year, I also can't support a landfall in between Ft. Pierce and the GA/SC border. These storms seem to always a) recurve near Bermuda b) hit the Carolinas or c) drive west into S. FL or the Keys.

[LaBreeze]

Patrick99, I'm leaning towards choices a) or b). Choice c) just doesn't seem to be too likely at this time.

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ...........





hay all im very very scaried of frances now. look at this forcast track but untill it chances im going to be scaried!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[cape_escape]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_5day.html....................





hay all im very very scaried of frances now. look at this forcast track but untill it chances im going to be scaried!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't blame you one bit!

[Sean in New Orleans]

In answering the original question--nobody knows. All those weery residents in Florida can do is simply watch. I don't see Florida knowing if they are "out of the woods," until next Monday or Tuesday, at the earliest. I hope it steers clear of the US coastline. This is developing into a monster of a storm before our eyes.