Yeehaw 2

[flyingphish]

Frances seems to want to move right. Maybe the stronger she gets..the more poleward she trends. And..she will be hungry for a weakness. Yes the weakness opportunity is in the making too.( approaching troughs to the northwest and "festering lows" upstream.") And ,she is a LONG way off yet! Also..everything on the "chalkboard" may be sent packing to the NNE..leaving the tropical weather cubbard bare for a bit. I certainly hope and think this system will be a fish. I hope Bermuda fares well and the Mariners. Nobody deserves to be hit by this storm..Nobody !! Also, Thanks Weathercaster VB Houtex for your objectivity. Weather speculation certainly encompasses more than pocket protectors,models and links. Nuff Said. Goodnight .

[Air Force Met]

You are right...weather speculation doesn't require any of that stuff. Weather forecasting on the other hand is a totally different story.

Some of us are attempting to forecast...not speculate or wishcast.

[JTD]

flyingphish, you haven't the foggiest clue of what you are talking about.

[mobilebay]

I tried to reason last night to no avail.

[B-Bear]

Frances seems to want to move right. Maybe the stronger she gets..the more poleward she trends. And..she will be hungry for a weakness. Yes the weakness opportunity is in the making too.( approaching troughs to the northwest and "festering lows" upstream.") And ,she is a LONG way off yet! Also..everything on the "chalkboard" may be sent packing to the NNE..leaving the tropical weather cubbard bare for a bit. I certainly hope and think this system will be a fish. I hope Bermuda fares well and the Mariners. Nobody deserves to be hit by this storm..Nobody !! Also, Thanks Weathercaster VB Houtex for your objectivity. Weather speculation certainly encompasses more than pocket protectors,models and links. Nuff Said. Goodnight .

This is the best example of -removed- I have yet seen on these boards. Despite the fact that virtually every single model is coming into agreement, you still think your scenario makes sense--because you want it to.

Get a grip. This storm is less and less likely to be a fish with every passing hour. Although it is still 7 to 8 days out, all of the conditions are favorable for it to move more westerly rather than northerly or easterly over time.

This one is hitting land somewhere. No doubt about it, in my opinion. Now, I realize that making such a bold statement is just about as crazy as what you've suggested, but at least I have the models on my side.

[Guest]

he was only really saying good luck to all of us on this side of the ocean so be nice .i hope it fishs myself doesn't look like it, but i have alittle hope inside myself that she does

[mobilebay]

he was only really saying good luck to all of us on this side of the ocean so be nice .i hope it fishs myself doesn't look like it, but i have alittle hope inside myself that she does

IT'S ok to hope and pray, but do not post it on here like it's a forecast. I hope I win a million dollars this week but that don't mean it's going to happen.. All people ask is to have at least something to back up your statement, if you seem so certain.

[Air Force Met]

It happens every year. Despite all the evidence...people come on here and say stuff that has no basis in facts. Last year people where -removed- Isabel into Fl because it was so strong and was going to create its own environment....despite the fact that every model had it turning. It got ugly and there was no reasoning with them until it turned.

In 2000, people were -removed- Helene (I think it was her) into central LA...even though there was this strong shortwave dipping down south that was certain to carry it into the panhandle of FL. And that wasn't even a debate with the models...you could see the shortwave in the water vapor loop digging due south! It was the worst case of -removed- I have ever seen.

I don't have a problem with people have a different opinion in their forecast. I have a problem when they post a forecast as a fact and all they have to back it up is their uneducated WAG....but its still fact in their eyes. Of course...even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while.

[Air Force Met]

he was only really saying good luck to all of us on this side of the ocean so be nice .i hope it fishs myself doesn't look like it, but i have alittle hope inside myself that she does

All we are saying is if you make a FORECAST...then back it up with some evidence. If you make a wishcast (either towards you or away from you)...that's fine too...but don't put it out there as a forecast. Especially don't...in one post...say a fish is in the making because of troughs upstream (which there aren't) and in the next breath say that weather speculation is more than looking at models. Speaking as a met...that kind of statement is just pure ignorance....and somebody who could never make it in the world as a forecaster.

[cape_escape]

It happens every year. Despite all the evidence...people come on here and say stuff that has no basis in facts. Last year people where -removed- Isabel into Fl because it was so strong and was going to create its own environment....despite the fact that every model had it turning. It got ugly and there was no reasoning with them until it turned.

In 2000, people were -removed- Helene (I think it was her) into central LA...even though there was this strong shortwave dipping down south that was certain to carry it into the panhandle of FL. And that wasn't even a debate with the models...you could see the shortwave in the water vapor loop digging due south! It was the worst case of -removed- I have ever seen.

I don't have a problem with people have a different opinion in their forecast. I have a problem when they post a forecast as a fact and all they have to back it up is their uneducated WAG....but its still fact in their eyes. Of course...even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while.

I'm just glad that there are others like you on here to help we novices sort through it all! Thank you!

[frankthetank]

I'll save this post and bring it up in a week...we'll see how accurate his assumptions are.... good night and good luck.... everyone say your Recurvature God Prayer....

Now i lay me down to sleep....
blah blah blah
If South Florida should get hit before i wake...
you know the rest...



this might look familiar by then...

[flyingphish]

Here is your forecast: My eleven year old understood it but ..The longer away from land a strong storm is the greater the chance it will move poleward..Duh..stronger ones in particular. I think it is called an Alpha or Beta..but I did not go there yet as she is only 11. Ok..Get that one ? Then there is climatology. I could make millions betting on fish alone. Too lofty for you? Sorry..most storms are fish. Now you get into the time of season when weather is in transition. Troughs appear on a more regular basis AND other weather tropical systems can evolve..almost overnight..undetected by Models.(can you believe that ?) That is my final answer..Over and Out !

[vbhoutex]

Weather forecasting is indeed a science. Science should/does ALWAYS include every bit of technology we have at our disposal and hopefully understand how to use to help us generate a forecast, as well as past experience that helps us understand better what the science is telling us.

As AFM said SPECULATION is another thing and IMO flying in the face of ALL CURRENT EVIDENCE is not a smart move, especially when the "forecast" is dealing with a PROBABLE MONSTER HURRICANE.

With that said I will always support a persons right to express their opinion and/or forecast as long as it is done in a respectful manner and can be backed up by some fact.

Mr. Phish provides us with some things to speculate about that are not that totally outlandish, but which IMO are not supported as even being probable in the current scheme of things. TD7/Gaston? has the possibility/probability of eroding the ridge some over the next few days. The distance, physical and time-wise between the two systems makes this a moot point. The system South of Bermuda is the other "festering low" he refers to. Again, distance and time frames make the probability of this system affecting Frances' future track somewhat remote. For there really to be an influence from this disturbance on Frances a couple of things would have to happen. 1. Frances would have to speed up, which is not expected or probable and 2. The 2nd system would also have to become a strong storm in order to erode the already(after TD7 exits in a couple of days)strongly rebuilding/rebuilt ridge enough to make a difference. The probability of these two things happening simultaneously is at best remote.

And as far as the chalkboard being swept clean as we approach the height of the hurricane season-NOT A CHANCE!!!!

[mobilebay]

Here is your forecast: My eleven year old understood it but ..The longer away from land a strong storm is the greater the chance it will move poleward..Duh..stronger ones in particular. I think it is called an Alpha or Beta..but I did not go there yet as she is only 11. Ok..Get that one ? Then there is climatology. I could make millions betting on fish alone. Too lofty for you? Sorry..most storms are fish. Now you get into the time of season when weather is in transition. Troughs appear on a more regular basis AND other weather tropical systems can evolve..almost overnight..undetected by Models.(can you believe that ?) That is my final answer..Over and Out !

That is the scariest thing I've ever heard!

[B-Bear]

Here is your forecast: My eleven year old understood it but ..The longer away from land a strong storm is the greater the chance it will move poleward..Duh..stronger ones in particular. I think it is called an Alpha or Beta..but I did not go there yet as she is only 11. Ok..Get that one ? Then there is climatology. I could make millions betting on fish alone. Too lofty for you? Sorry..most storms are fish. Now you get into the time of season when weather is in transition. Troughs appear on a more regular basis AND other weather tropical systems can evolve..almost overnight..undetected by Models.(can you believe that ?) That is my final answer..Over and Out !

You know what, all things being equal--you're right, storms, and especially stronger storms, do recurve north due to the beta effect. But there's a little thing called "physics" that you're ignoring. If a ridge, and especially a strong ridge as predicted, builds to the north of this storm, it won't go north. It's spinning motion will cause it to hit the ridge and bounce west. So your forecast is apparently based upon the assumption that the forecast ridge will not form. If it doesn't, then you may be right. But at this point, EVERY model has that ridge building and becoming very strong. If that happens, there is no way in hell that storm goes out to sea.

Please correct me if I'm wrong on this, Mets.