00Z GFS slight differences

[btangy]

New GFS keeps TD7 meandering around a little bit longer. Still shows strong high latitude zonal flow in the long range and a very strong upper level ridge with a huge area of 588+dm heights at 500mb level pretty much from the SE US to Africa. Ridge in the east is not as amplified day 7/8 (which is what the ECMWF also trended to from its 00Z run to its 12Z run), but despite this, the GFS thinks the high to the north will hold Frances on a W/WNW course albeit a little north of its 12Z position, so NHC can claim the GFS is converging toward its forecast track in its next discussion.

[vbhoutex]

You have moved clear across the country!!! When did this happen?

[btangy]

When I started graduate school. Moved to a place that actually has weather. Almost forgot what it was like!

[ericinmia]

it does seem that GFS has taken the same track recently for the past few runs...

Thats not a good sign for us in south fla, and those in the gulf. Esp. LA... GFS seems to have it out for you.

This sounds sort of like andrew all over again.

Here is the loop for the new 00z gfs run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

-Eric

[MWatkins]

New GFS keeps TD7 meandering around a little bit longer. Still shows strong high latitude zonal flow in the long range and a very strong upper level ridge with a huge area of 588+dm heights at 500mb level pretty much from the SE US to Africa. Ridge in the east is not as amplified day 7/8 (which is what the ECMWF also trended to from its 00Z run to its 12Z run), but despite this, the GFS thinks the high to the north will hold Frances on a W/WNW course albeit a little north of its 12Z position, so NHC can claim the GFS is converging toward its forecast track in its next discussion.

Also noticed it is much slower in kicking out TD7 which seems to be the weakness slowing the hurricane north of the DR...UKMET is gonna be interesting.

MW

[mobilebay]

New GFS keeps TD7 meandering around a little bit longer. Still shows strong high latitude zonal flow in the long range and a very strong upper level ridge with a huge area of 588+dm heights at 500mb level pretty much from the SE US to Africa. Ridge in the east is not as amplified day 7/8 (which is what the ECMWF also trended to from its 00Z run to its 12Z run), but despite this, the GFS thinks the high to the north will hold Frances on a W/WNW course albeit a little north of its 12Z position, so NHC can claim the GFS is converging toward its forecast track in its next discussion.

So what you are saying is the ridge to the north will not be as strong on day 7 and 8, and could allow for a more northerly motion at that time?