5AM advisory..... NHC TRACK ADJUSTED SOUTH!

[ericinmia]

....Frances moving toward the northwest with no change in
intensity...

interests in the northern Lesser Antilles and the northeastern
Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of Frances over
the next several days.

At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 17.0 north...longitude 51.3 west or about 695
miles...1115 km...east of the Leeward Islands.

Frances is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph ...19 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours with a
gradual turn to the west-northwest thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...185 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles...165 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb...28.41 inches.

Repeating the 5 am AST position...17.0 N... 51.3 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 962 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am AST.

Forecaster Avila

[ericinmia]

there has been little change in the cloud pattern associated with
Frances. The eye is not as distinct as few hours ago and convection
is not as strong as earlier. I was tempted to lower the winds but
the Dvorak estimates still support 100-knot winds at this time.
Although the hurricane is not showing any signs of strengthening at
this time...and is heading toward an area of strong upper-level
southwesterly winds...most of the global models suggests that the
shear will decrease over the next few days. Therefore...
intensification is still possible.
The expected turn more to the west has not materialized yet and in
fact global and the GFDL models suggest that the westward track
should not begin for another 24 to 36 hours. The hurricane is
moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 10 knots. Global
models continue to develop a strong and large subtropical ridge to
the north of the hurricane creating a pattern that would force the
hurricane on a more west-northwest or even westward track. The UK
model is now closer to the GFS solution bringing the hurricane
dangerously westward just north of Puerto Rico and the Bahamas
during the next 4 to 5 days. The official forecast is a little bit
to the south of the previous one and very close to the latest GFS
and the UK model solution.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 28/0900z 17.0n 51.3w 100 kt
12hr VT 28/1800z 18.0n 52.5w 105 kt
24hr VT 29/0600z 19.0n 54.3w 110 kt
36hr VT 29/1800z 20.0n 56.5w 115 kt
48hr VT 30/0600z 20.5n 58.5w 115 kt
72hr VT 31/0600z 21.0n 63.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 01/0600z 22.0n 68.5w 115 kt
120hr VT 02/0600z 23.0n 72.4w 115 kt

[ericinmia]

The official forecast is a little bit
to the south of the previous one and very close to the latest GFS
and the UK model solution.

uh-oh... i was hoping they would have something better to say, that would counteract what we had found thorugh some of the models.


Their New official track will be south of this old one:


-Eric

[James]

At least they didn't say that CAT 5 status was a possibility, as they have in previous advisories.

[TS Zack]

I don't like the last line! They are going with the GFS model !NOT GOOD

[WeatherEmperor]

Looking very very bad for south florida. the more time goes by the more i begin to worry about Frances.

<RICKY>

[Aquawind]

Looking very very bad for south florida. the more time goes by the more i begin to worry about Frances.

<RICKY>

Agreed..Were gonna have a Real tough time if another Major comes through...GFS and UK..ugh..

Dang that graphic is ugly..I remember when I was in the cone..Heads UP Islanders!!

[Derek Ortt]

if miami is ever the landfall point at 5 days, then we are the safest place in the usa to be

[WeatherEmperor]

if miami is ever the landfall point at 5 days, then we are the safest place in the usa to be

lol just admit it. you forecast the system to go a bit further north while it is becoming more apparent that it will head a bit further south.

<RICKY>

[Aquawind]

Well we need to remember..Landfall point is nothing..It's the cone baby...especially 5 days out..

[TS Zack]

Ouch that track hurts.

[jlauderdal]

if miami is ever the landfall point at 5 days, then we are the safest place in the usa to be

ok derek, you stole my line forma few weeks ago..LOL. this is looking like a a strike from the keys to daytona if you ask me...no sign of that ridge getting taken down by anything.

[WeatherEmperor]

if miami is ever the landfall point at 5 days, then we are the safest place in the usa to be

ok derek, you stole my line forma few weeks ago..LOL. this is looking like a a strike from the keys to daytona if you ask me...no sign of that ridge getting taken down by anything.

I second that. All of Florida needs to watch this.

<RICKY>

[Matthew5]

Calling this the second coming of Debby is not telling the story. Debby was a weak cat1 hurricane with 65 knot winds. This is a cat3 hurricane that might become a cat4 over the next few days. This is like racing a horse against a race car!

[jlauderdal]

Calling this the second coming of Debby is not telling the story. Debby was a weak cat1 hurricane with 65 knot winds. This is a cat3 hurricane that might become a cat4 over the next few days. This is like racing a horse against a race car!

we are just comparing tracks not intensity..every cane is different.

[mobilebay]

if miami is ever the landfall point at 5 days, then we are the safest place in the usa to be

I don't see how you can bash the NHC 5 day forecast like this. Their 5 Day track with Charley was great. I guess I need to delete the NHC website from my favorites and put yours there since you know everything.

[ColdFront77]

Derek isn't bashing the National Hurricane Center... he is saying that typically when a 5 day forecast track shows one place it tends not to make landfall at or very near that location. i.e. the models have a good chance of changing at least slightly to moderately.

[mobilebay]

Derek isn't bashing the National Hurricane Center... he is saying that typically when a 5 day forecast track shows one place it tends not to make landfall at or very near that location. i.e. the models have a good chance of changing at least slightly to moderately.

Yes I believe he was. What he was saying, if you are in the the area of the 5 day strike zone you would be safe because the forecast would be that bad. Thats what scares me. Most people believe exactly what he thinks. The forecast will allways change and there area will not be affected.

[jlauderdal]

Derek isn't bashing the National Hurricane Center... he is saying that typically when a 5 day forecast track shows one place it tends not to make landfall at or very near that location. i.e. the models have a good chance of changing at least slightly to moderately.

Yes I believe he was. What he was saying, if you are in the the area of the 5 day strike zone you would be safe because the forecast would be that bad. Thats what scares me. Most people believe exactly what he thinks. The forecast will allways change and there area will not be affected.

ok lets end this. first of all nhc says 5 dya track has error of 300 miles so based on that you would be in good shape. second, it has become a south florida thing to want to be on the 5 day track because we have been so many times and we avoid getting hit which is what we want. ortt is not bashing nhc..he has friends over there.

[Aquawind]

I hardly call it a bashing when NHC admits the 5 days forecast is like 300 miles margin or error.. It has been discussed on the board..I equate it to more of a joke like jlauderdal has mentioned routinely in the past..The line has been a joke for years to everyone but the people who actualy verify thier forecasts..especially 5 day out or beyond in this case..

The 5 day forecasts are a new thing for NHC as well..

It's all about the Cone imho..