Strong Front next weekend to save Central Gulf?

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CAT5Tiger
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Strong Front next weekend to save Central Gulf?

#1 Postby CAT5Tiger » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:32 am

I was looking over the 15 day outlook this morning from accuweather and it has the Baton Rouge area in the mid 80s/60s for Labor Day. This means a substantial front must be forecast to move in. Looking at where the hurricane will be next Friday, I don't see how it can continue west into the gulf. I know this forecast could change but I just wanted to know if the models were picking up on a strong trough around labor day. Thanks.
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#2 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:34 am

In your post you mention that the trough you mentioned is forecast in the 15 day period? Maybe its true and all but isnt Frances supposed to make her impact on the US east coast within 7-9 days?

<RICKY>
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#3 Postby B-Bear » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:35 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:In your post you mention that the trough you mentioned is forecast in the 15 day period? Maybe its true and all but isnt Frances supposed to make her impact on the US east coast within 7-9 days?

<RICKY>


That's true. But then she will likely be traveling several days beyond that into the Gulf if the models pan out. But I think predicting a trough 15 days down the road is pretty shakey anyway.
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#4 Postby lilbump3000 » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:36 am

Looking out 15 days in a weather forecast is just like looking at the GFS model for a tropical system 15 days out.
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#5 Postby CAT5Tiger » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:39 am

I was looking at the possibility of Frances going across south Florida and into the gulf. In this scenario the 2nd hit would be in the 11-13 day time frame and if the trough digs down into the gulf there could be a south Florida then panhandle hit. This is all just speculation but one thing is certain, when a location has frontal passage it is safe. Thanks.
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#6 Postby tdess02 » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:41 am

It is loking more likely that Francis will cross over Florida and enter the Gulf. After that, it depends on how strong the high is and how far it's western edge slides across. This is a similiar pattern to when Andrew made it into the Gulf with the exception of another tropical system to its North. As stated in previous post, everyone from Florida and North need to monitor and maybe later in the period, the Gulf coast.
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#7 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:44 am

In that case I am clueless. I would be a complete fool to even try and speculate what would happen if it entered the Gulf. For now lets just watch Frances as she harmlessly spins herself out in the Atlantic. Im sure by Monday morning or so we can have a great idea on where it could land(maye sooner)

<RICKY>
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#8 Postby wx247 » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:47 am

I would be very nervous if I lived in the Bahamas for sure... regardless of the where it hits in the US.
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#9 Postby skyking » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:15 am

I live on the Space coast and my son lives in New Orleans
do I have to worry. :(
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#10 Postby Pebbles » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:19 am

skyking wrote:I live on the Space coast and my son lives in New Orleans
do I have to worry. :(


You both need to continue to keep an strong eye on Frances. I wouldn't start worrying quite yet... in a couple days more will be known.
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