http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml
Has it over the Bahamas on day 6 and slowly moves it into and over South Florida through day 9. I would discount these long term models if the GFS hadn't been so incredibly consistant with this storm.
12z GFS Over So Fla in 7-8 days
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CalmBeforeStorm
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12z GFS Over So Fla in 7-8 days
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Re: 12z GFS Over So Fla in 7-8 days
I think residents in Florida should start to make plans to get out.. The GFS has been trending Westward the whole time and now the European model has shifted West and mainly now all the models have a Westward movement.
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WeatherEmperor
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I would not be so quick to discount the GFS. In the past 3-4 runs it has become more and more consistant slowly and seems to be trending in a general south florida direction for the past few runs now. I would wait for another 2-3 runs to see if this is for real to be really concerned but its enough to keep my eyes open.
<RICKY>
<RICKY>
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ColdFront77
Sure the GFS has been consistent with the last several runs. That is one model of many forecast models (despite some of them not being worth anything).
This far out there can easily be changes with the consistency of the most established forecast track into south Florida from the next model runs throughout this week. They or most of them may shift in a group or for some reason split apart.
This far out there can easily be changes with the consistency of the most established forecast track into south Florida from the next model runs throughout this week. They or most of them may shift in a group or for some reason split apart.
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Guest
WeatherEmperor wrote:I would not be so quick to discount the GFS. In the past 3-4 runs it has become more and more consistant slowly and seems to be trending in a general south florida direction for the past few runs now. I would wait for another 2-3 runs to see if this is for real to be really concerned but its enough to keep my eyes open.
<RICKY>
I think the GFS is definitely more believable than average with this situation than it normally would be 7-8 days out. The motion of Frances is pretty dependent on that high to the north. These Bermuda highs tend to be longer lasting than your typical high that may build in behind a strong frontal boundary and the BH tends to generally stay where it is (maybe pushing west or east, but it tends to STAY in terms of a blocking feature). I personally believe what the GFS is saying is a pretty likely scenario at this point, IMHO.
I'm driving down from NY and will be in N FL around the 4th and plan to be in Miami the 6th to 8th. Am not totally disappointed that I'll likely miss most of the action in this case.
John
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