Gaston Advisories

[FLGuest]

It seem the center or "eye" of Gaston is showing up pretty good on the Charleston, SC long range radar....

[ColdFront77]

Link -----> Charleston, South Carolina National Weather Service Doppler Radar Loop

[Charleston_eye]

Any one that has an informed/educated opinion on Gaston Strengthening to cat 1 before landfall.

Thanks in advance!

[snowflake]

The Weather Channel's Dr. Steve Lyons says it will only be a Tropical Storm. The biggest threat will be the rain.

[Charleston_eye]

I take the WC with a grain of salt, but rain is OK by me. Wind was my concern, despite being 20 miles inland.

Thanks for the reply.

[seahawkjd]

Its definetely possible. More likely if it parallels the coastline and goes in further up obviously. REally doesn't make much difference though does it? The biggest thing with this storm will be rain whether its a minimal hurricane or a decent to strong tropical storm. We've had so much rain this month....

But anyway, time after time when a storm gets near the gulf stream it strengthens more then they thought it would. Everything from Bonnie, the first one, to Fran restrenghening, to I think Floyd did a bit too, to more recently Alex exploding before it hit Hattaras.

[Pebbles]

I agree with probably tropical storm. Though Cat 1 is not totally out of the question ...just unlikely IMHO.

[STORMSURGE]

While everyone focuses on Frances, our guy Gaston just may get bigger than previously thought and just slip under the radar, pun intended

[cape_escape]

I sure hope not!

[seahawkjd]

Is it bad when being in a watch area becomes a norm more then an exception? lol

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM GASTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

...GASTON DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD...RECON APPROACHING...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF CITY
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO FERNANDINA
BEACH FLORIDA.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

GASTON IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING WESTWARD. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF GASTON NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL REACH GASTON WITHIN
THE HOUR.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF GASTON.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...31.3 N... 78.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

[vacanechaser]

the recon should be in the area shortly..

[crazycajuncane]

Gaston is now moving once again. His winds are 40 mph. I see it possibly being a big rain maker, but the time it needs to grow and it's proximity to land won't make it a strong Hurricane.

BUT, crazier things have happened. I was about to make my own post about poor Gaston and mention it should be a good rain maker for the Carolinas. Let's just hope thats all it stays at.

[cape_escape]

I just read somewhere that TD's can be just as deadly as a hurricane because of all the water they can dump...scary!

[Derek Ortt]

minimal cat 1 is very much possible, especially if recon finds that the radar trend sof organization are in fact occurring

[Pebbles]

You really think so Derek? Of course you do or you wouldn't of posted that ...ask a silly question... *decides to keep a closer eye on the storm*

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

BUMP

[cycloneye]

28/1745 UTC 31.3N 78.8W T3.5/3.5 GASTON -- Atlantic Ocean
28/1745 UTC 17.8N 52.3W T6.0/6.0 FRANCES -- Atlantic Ocean

Both intensifying Frances to 115 kts Below is wind chart.

MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS
2 30 KTS 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars

[vacanechaser]

it is certainly a likelyhood... the gulf stream waters can do some impressive things with these systems... look how quickly it developed yesterday.. what makes you think that would just stop... never underestimate that happening... Charley was a great example of people under estimating a storm.. strenght and track...

[lilbump3000]

I knew frances will be up to 6.0 but gaston up to 3.5, thats a strong tropical storm almost hurricane.