Frances Advisories

[rbaker]

the ull is moving alot faster to the ne, so unless it slows down, don't expect any movement of Frances other than what tpc has been saying. In fact, it may have starting to vent the system, last several images are showing a much more circular eye, indicitive of a intensifying storm.

[Skywatch_NC]

Do you think that Frances will weaken before making a landfall? That is if she does make a landfall.

In all honesty, if Frances indeed approaches southern Florida (and I believe it will), the hurricane will likely intensify as it passes over the Gulf Stream just offshore.
I'm being conservative in forecasting 140-145 mph at landfall....with the heat content between SE Florida and the Bahamas, it could very well be 150 mph or higher (in the same intensity range as Floyd, Andrew, or the severe 1926 and 1928 hurricanes).

For those who are in the projected path....I have relatives in harms way also. Several first cousins live in Sarasota and Venice...and just as with hurricane Charley, I'm again very concerned about them

Perry I've got 2 first cousins and 1 second cousin in Sarasota, also.

[B-Bear]

Hopefully she'll peak and be on a down slope if (when) She Hits. However, when storms get under a ridge they tend to hold intensity or intensify. When they run out of ridge and feel trough (bagginess) they tend to weaken. Let's hope! Signed "getting concerned in Melbourne, FL."

Not only that, but this storm is not expected to recurve...which causes storms to lose intensity. With a WNW motion, it doesn't seem likely to diminish much. The only thing limiting this thing could be where it stands in eye-wall recycling when it moves in.

[kittcat]

Perry - I recall you have posted on the topic of a major hurricane hitting the populated areas of South Florida many times. I hope that your analysis does not come to pass.

Kathy

[Guest]

Can you elaborate on the jan trop storm? i dont remember it. I do remember the hurricane in the s.atlantic however. This thing is not only becoming more and more like Isabel (stadium appearance) but its also losing the outer banding and becoming more donut like.

[Guest]

That ULL is moving N/NNE & will be out of the picture

[Matthew5]

Here you go it is the January 19th tropical storm.
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... ages/Misc/
The Atlatnic over all is!
9 Named
5 hurricanes
3 Maj hurricanes

[simplykristi]

Hi All,
I know it is way too early to predict Frances' course. But I have read a couple of posts that make me think that Frances is going to hit South FL. Is this in the realm of possiblities?

[jlauderdal]

Hi All,
I know it is way too early to predict Frances' course. But I have read a couple of posts that make me think that Frances is going to hit South FL. Is this in the realm of possiblities?

yes

[lilbump3000]

To me with most of the models been almost fairly consistent with bring this system into south florida i think thats were the highest chance for landfall one to occur, then landfall two will most likely occur in the north central gulf since the models have been almost fairly consistent with that as well.

[JTD]

Very much so. In fact, the UKMET model just came out showing a direct hit on Miami, Florida as an intense hurricane (ala Andrew-though, probably much worse) IF it comes to pass.

I am still not sold on a US hit, yet. This WNW turn is not materializing and hence, I am still holding out the chance of a fish.

[GulfBreezer]

Great forecast Mike (as usual) very informative and easily understood...........You could have left out the part about it getting into the GOM though This is going to be a very long week ahead!!

[ColdFront77]

Does everyone feel that these forecast models will stay this consistent through the next one to seven days?? I don't.

[simplykristi]

I hope Frances does NOT hit south FL. I just hope Frances stays out in the open water.

It is hard to get hurricane info in this part of the US so I rely on the services of storm2k.org

[JTD]

What is the significance that Frances is still not heading WNW and perhaps even seems to be going more north than northwest even?

Is it time to seriously question the models showing a WNW and west turn? I mean this turn was supposed to begin today, right?

Also, is it time to seriously question whether the "zonal flow" mentioned in NHC discussions is going to come to pass?

I am thinking more and more Carolinas hit as the furthest south point that landfall could occur.

[lilbump3000]

Well looking at the lastest visible loops it seems towards the end she has made a west jog again.

[Agua]

Does everyone feel that these forecast models will stay this consistent through the next one to seven days?? I don't.

Complete ignoramous here, but it would be highly unsusual, wouldn't it? On the other side, I read over and over that the TPC is very, very good with large, developed storms.

[HURAKAN]

"Just a Beauty". That's unless it gets in your way, then the beautiful fades away.

Luck for everyone with this hurricane, even I wish luck to myself!

[jlauderdal]

"Just a Beauty". That's unless it gets in your way, then the beautiful fades away.

Luck for everyone with this hurricane, even I wish luck to myself!

nothing better than a perfectly constructed french girl

[WeatherEmperor]

"Just a Beauty". That's unless it gets in your way, then the beautiful fades away.

Luck for everyone with this hurricane, even I wish luck to myself!

nothing better than a perfectly constructed french girl

LOL! Ya damn right!!

<RICKY>