Turn to the West to commence shortly

[stormernie]

It starting to look like Frances will commence that anticipated turn to the west in the next 6 hours. Satellite pictures show that the structure of the storm is becoming more west east oriented and this is a indicator for a turn in the near future. I won't be surprise to see this happen by early evening tonight.

[crazycajuncane]

I'm watching as well. Still more NW than anything.

[ColdFront77]

I highly doubt there will only be a turn to the west through it's trek.

[vacanechaser]

looks to me to be north north south oriented.. no turn to the west yet...

[Anonymous]

No doubt about that. You can always tell a storm's imminent change in direction, by looking at it's overall symmetry. The upper level steering, tend to distort the geometry (shape) of a storm, which is an indication of the steering flow. I always look for the overall shape of a storm, in a way to try and determine its projected current path. This is something I have observed over the years of following tropical systems.

[HouTXmetro]

I agree. based on the latest few loops Frances has indeed turned back to a w-wnw motion. Conversely, It's funny to see how far Frances is and people are already getting their panties in a bunch and predicting direct hits for certain areas. Earl is a prime example of how these long range models don't mean shat.

[golter]

i must be looking a wrong sats, i see nothing to hint a west turn. most models have her crossing below 20N and 60 west, to make that she would have to turn very soon.

[Guest]

Oh yeah, I remember Earl. Some people (including me) said it would get into the gulf and be a huge hurricane. That didn't exactly pan out....

[lilbump3000]

You must be looking at wrong ones because she does seems to be on a more WNW than NW movement right now.

[HouTXmetro]

i must be looking a wrong sats, i see nothing to hint a west turn. most models have her crossing below 20N and 60 west, to make that she would have to turn very soon.

Check this loop out. It could very well be a jog west but the west jump is quite clear.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Agua]

Over the last 6.5 hours, the overal motion has been ever so slightly west of northwest.

[golter]

I it has moved a certain direction for more than 2 or 3 hours, I dont put too much stock in it. My response was more about the east/west elongation versus a north/ south one.

[Wthrman13]

Actually, most of the dynamical models dissipated Earl, or didn't depict it very well at all to begin with. Of course, dissipate is exactly what it did.

[cycloneye]

Certanly it is taken a more westnorthwest track but is this the anticipated turn or it is a wobble?I guess we have to wait for more frames to see a definite trend.

[Guest]

UH OH its coming for me! That last frame is a turn not a wobble.

[lilbump3000]

To me since 17:45UTC time, it has been moving more to the W to WNW.

[chris_fit]

Defintely more western component in the last few hours... say 280

[lilbump3000]

I maybe going out here, but i say this is not what the northern islands wanted this system to do. It does not look like a wobble, but more of a W to WNW movement. I say the northern islands and PR to keep a close eye on this system.

[rbaker]

agree, its not nw like it was this morning, more of a wnw movement, just like they said, and it hasn't hit the 18.0 n parrallel yet.

[lilbump3000]

I think this turn has happened way to early than they forecasted. I cant wait to see the new track in a lil bit.