Gaston Advisories

angilbas · #61 Postby **angilbas** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:44 pm

Best-case scenario ... Gaston's associated upper-level trough retains enough of a presence to deflect Frances away from the Bahamas (and maybe other land masses to the west). This possibility is mentioned in Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 15 at the National Hurricane Center.

-Tony

frankthetank · #62 Postby **frankthetank** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:45 pm

What is the actual size of Frances (miles across) and how does this compare to AVG (whatever that is) hurricanes...i'm just wondering if it hits homestead, fl (FOR EXAMPLE) does it effect miami-key west...?????

Do hurricanes get bigger as they age/smaller??

thanks....

vacanechaser · #63 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:45 pm

000
URNT11 KNHC 281818
97779 18184 70326 80000 03000 03022 24192 /0014 40320
RMK AF861 0107A GASTON OB 02

cape_escape · #64 Postby **cape_escape** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:48 pm

YIKES!!!!

Matthew5 · #65 Postby **Matthew5** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:52 pm

32.6/80.0 at 22 knots

#66 Postby **seahawkjd** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:53 pm

Is all this info from recon or sat estimates?

#67 Postby **seahawkjd** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:57 pm

So I'm really confused. Is it 22 kts or 45 kts or 55 kts? lol

vacanechaser · #68 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 2:00 pm

yes 2 obs so far.. i got one of them.. an inbound leg.. look for the other post... post recon here.. we will have someone brak it down..

#69 Postby **seahawkjd** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 2:02 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks like its getting its act together

Guest · #70 Postby **Guest** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 2:02 pm

cape_escape wrote:I just read somewhere that TD's can be just as deadly as a hurricane because of all the water they can dump...scary!

Yes, I remember Alison in Houston. Was a weak TS, but a depression for days in that area and dumped 3 feet of water. I think it dumped well over a foot in the first couple days! :sun:

OtherHD · #71 Postby **OtherHD** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 2:04 pm

nikolai wrote:wow ships takes it to 85kts eventually... we may have a little situation developing here.

Of course, it takes it to 85 kts when it's over land. Use DSHIPS in this situation. It factors land into the intensity forecast.

OtherHD · #72 Postby **OtherHD** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 2:05 pm

I think TD 11 in 1999 killed over 500 people in Mexico.

#73 Postby **seahawkjd** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 2:07 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Is it just cloud shearing or is gaston moving a little more north of due west now?

vacanechaser · #74 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 2:08 pm

vacanechaser · #75 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 2:09 pm

Guest · #76 Postby **Guest** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 2:10 pm

Its definitly gettinh better organized.

Benlanka · #77 Postby **Benlanka** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 2:16 pm

Edit: VORTEX data message
URNT12 KNHC 281852
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/1852Z
B. 31 DEG 17 MIN N
78 DEG 54 MIN W
C. NA
D. 60 KT
E. 001 DEG 20 NM
F. 078 DEG 59 KT
G. 354 DEG 27 NM
H. EXTRAP 996 MB
I. 23 C/ 311 M
J. 26 C/ 301 M
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/01
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF861 0107A GASTON OB 04
MAX FL WIND 59 KT N QUAD 1843Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
RADAR SHOWED GOOD BANDING W-NE QUADS.

#78 Postby **seahawkjd** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 2:19 pm

So its a depression?

Guest · #79 Postby **Guest** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 2:20 pm

ROFL!! Gaston is a itty bitty baby! lol its not even a tropical storm!

OtherHD · #80 Postby **OtherHD** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 2:21 pm

I'd wait for the first vortex message to make calls on intensity. I wouldnt htink it would be just a TD at 1004 MB...

Gaston Advisories

Gaston may save people from Frances

I'm confused about gaston

nice bomb over Gastons center

ooppss..

Gaston recon results: 60kts and pressure 996hPa

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