Bastardi's poor TC formation prediction record: A Study

[Derecho]

Having a gotten a free trial sub to Accuweather for the humor value, I actually went through and resarched this one night I was bored, before Frances...intended to wait for a lull in the season to post, but given all the worshipful "kudos" to JB for "predicting" the formation of Gaston, I thought I'd toss out this reality check in a timely fashion.

I looked at every JB column from June 1 to July 31st...however, for whatever reason the AccuWx archive contains no colums for the last 6 days of each month (likely some sort of screwup by whoever does the website) so actually it's a record of June 1-24th, and July 1-25th, forecasts.

Of course, it would be nice if each TC formation prediction was of the nature of "In a box bounded by 20N, 30N, 60W, 70W, a named storm will form in the next 3 days" but of course, being a JB column, they aren't. The predictions vary in "strength" but most consist of the usual "Watch (the GOM, the Atlantic, etc.)" or an expression of "concern."

Most of these predictions are of a generally similar nature to JB's predictions "a week before" Gaston.

Of course, it's subscription site and copywright material. A quote of a few sentences here and there is usually considered "fair use."..but this is a few sentences, but from a LOT of different columns. I've attempted to pare them down as much as possible. I am convinced that if I was to paraphrase anything I'd be strung up by the JB cult. I have done my best to avoid taking anything out of context.

Note that EVERY single one of the predictions below was a FAILED prediction, as nothing formed till Alex on July 31st.

You may notice the predictions at the end of July sound LIKE they are predicting the formation of Alex, but they ACTUALLY are predictions for a little low that PRECEEDED Alex off the East Coast, and which made INVEST but never formed a TD, and never bothered anyone.

Unfortunately due to the archive problem JB's predictions of INVEST 90L in the GOM (which never became a TD) possibly reaching "115 knots" aren't avaliable.

Anyway, here goes:


June 1, 2004

“GULF MAY OPEN FOR FUNNY BUSINESS NEXT WEEK”

“…and this is something that will have to be watched for possible tropical troubles.”

June 2, 2004

“However, assuming I am right about this development, it means the pulse is coming across and will be in the Caribbean and Gulf around the 10th, so although the models do not show anything, I still hold that we will have to watch for possible early-season development around that time.”

June 4, 2004

“This does not change my thinking which is simply the period around and after the 10th is one to watch for development down there.”

June 6, 2004

“TROPICS: The Gulf will have to be watched starting later this week…..”

June 9, 2004

“The pot may start to boil in the gulf early next week…… Point is tomorrow is June 10th and the gulf may have to be watched as we go into the weekend into early next week.”

June 10, 2004

“The situation in the western Caribbean and Gulf is outlined below, and I am growing more nervous about this. The pattern aloft favors ridging in the wake of the upper feature backing away, and so the system has a chance to start feeding back and developing.”
June 11, 2004

“FRIDAY: PATTERN OVERVIEW - TROPICAL TROUBLEMAKER POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST”

June 14, 2004

“The overall trof split pattern, though, means that the wave east of the Windwards, though not likely to develop over the next 5-7 days, may be in a position to cause Gulf mischief in 7-10 days.”

June 16, 2004

“Now all that means is that for now, we do have to watch the gulf get again next week as the trof splits yet again.”
June 18, 2004

“This doesn't affect the idea that Gulf and western Caribbean will have to be watched next week.”
June 22, 2004

“The point is the western gulf will have to be watched over the next several days, until some semblance of normalcy returns.”

June 23, 2004

“That means that if we can get thunderstorms to persist over the western gulf, then we have to be a bit concerned. I may post a comment on this later Thursday, or perhaps earlier if I can see something to talk about with it. Still fronts in the gulf, with some intersection from tropical waves going by to the south are something that has to be watched.”

(No archived columns June 25-30.)

July 3, 2004:

“…it looks to me the only wave of concern now, east of the islands, is something the Gulf has to watch later this week.”

July 6, 2004

“TUESDAY: PATTERN LOOKS LIKE AUGUST, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE VERDE'S L00KS ROBUST AND COULD CAUSE A FUSS
TROPICS: I made mention that back on Saturday, Garrett (my son) and I were watching the well-organized circulation that was trekking through Africa, and this looks to be the real deal. The time of the year is a bit early, but in 1996, Bertha popped, so it's not like this is unheard of. Of course, development to a depression or a storm (it probably is a depression now) is likely to wait till further west, but the point is the pattern is such that this is a watchable feature and could be a threat into the Gulf next week.”

July 7, 2004

“The system at 12 north and 32 west this morning continues westward with a well-defined signature. Once to 60 west (it should reach it Saturday night), it will start being of more concern. I don't believe GFS ideas that this will head up into the Atlantic, but I think a track near the islands, and into the Gulf for next week, is a much more likely idea. It's in the Gulf that I would be concerned for us getting development.”

July 8, 2004

“The African wave train is running, and the theory here is that for the last ten days of July and the first ten days of August, it may not be as active as what it is over the next week to ten days because of the above reasons”

(Editorial aside: the above turned out to be TOTALLY and hilariously wrong, with no development in the 10 days after July 8th, and a LOT of development from July 21 to Aug. 10.)

“The well-defined low- to mid-level system near 15 north and 40 west is in "no man's land" for development now, but once west of 60 west in three days it could be a player. I am watching this closely for possible late in the game development next week, and late in the game means close to our coast.”

July 9, 2004

“TROPICS: The front-running wave is near 15 north and 48 west this morning and I still have worries about this next week in the Gulf.”
“Despite the lack of convection, the well-organized, low-level system continues its westward march, and I feel this will be a player, directly or indirectly, in the Gulf next week. I am still thinking this has a chance to go, but at this time I am not more or less convinced than a couple of weeks ago.”

July 10, 2004

“The wave in the central Atlantic will be in the northwest Caribbean, I think, by Wednesday, and that is the system that I am concerned can be a player in the weather over the Gulf later next week.”

July 11, 2004

The tropical wave that I am concerned about for the Gulf for the mid and latter part of this week is still being sheared, but the convection is increasing. My worry is that the upper trof in front of it is splitting and a ridge is going to develop nearby and migrate westward to near the western tip of Cuba by Thursday. The strong eastern trof should slow the wave down and perhaps turn it up so it may have the ridge develop close by and helping it. In addition, the lack of a strong surface high over the eastern Gulf means the usual strong low-level southeast wind in advance of these waves that ruins any convergence on the western side so if it can survive that area over the southeast Gulf Wednesday through Friday is a place to watch.”

July 12, 2004

“WESTERN GULF PLACE TO WATCH IN CLOSE LATE WEEK FOR TROPICS, ALONG WITH AFRICAN WAVE TRAIN”

“So the Gulf is the place to watch mid and late week as far as anything that can be of concern to the coast.”

“However, the African wave train is alive and kicking. A very well-organized wave came off yesterday and is at 10 north and 21 west this morning, and what looks to be a bigger one is on its way off the coast for tomorrow. I will be showing the water vapor shot this morning, and there is more moist air available for both of these systems than the one last week. In any case, they will be tracked, as I do think we are going to see a development or two out of this current pulse of waves before it trends back down again.”

July 17, 2004

“The other noteworthy item is if the pattern idea I have is right, the southwest Atlantic, eastern Gulf and western Caribbean will be ripe for tropical development the mid and latter part of next week, and the models are sniffing this out.”

“This dovetails into zone 5, where the tropics may be a big problem this upcoming weekend. The trof split pattern later in the week farther west means that the tropical wave near 35 west in the Atlantic will be in the area primed for ventilation later in the week, and zone 5 may be affected this weekend by this.”

“A tropical system may enter the Gulf on the weekend. As trof splits ridging backing westward into the southeastern states from the east may force it slowly westward or northwestward into or through the Gulf, meaning a tropical troublemaker is possible midway through the week of the 25th here.”

July 18, 2004

“And I have no change from my ideas on the waves coming from the east and the idea that the Southeast and Gulf have to watch these closely. The westward movement of the waves is slowing and the trof backing in the means says to me that between 70w and 90w south of 35 north will become a nice area to ventilate tropical systems later in the week”

July 19, 2004

“Given the implications of the very cool air mass that comes down into the Plains and spreads out, the development of the trof over the nation's midsection, and the fact that a viable tropical disturbance near 11 north and 52 west is on the increase as it moves overall on a northwestward path over the next 5-7 days, there is reason for the coastal southeast to sit up and take notice. Should that system progress more to the south than I am thinking, then it's a Gulf problem.”

July 20, 2004

“Well, there are two potential trouble spots 4-7 days down the road as far as the United States goes. The strong wave near 15 north and 65 west is heading in a body and soul type idea northwestward and will have to do battle with Hispaniola. That means that until it gets by there, there is little chance for development. The question is what becomes of it. An interesting side possibility is that energy shooting out to its west now continues westward for the Gulf and is something that can throw a spark on whatever is going on with the front in the western Gulf this weekend. That is something that will have to be watched. The other is that the other part that emerges from the battle with Hispaniola heads north-northwestward into the waiting mish mosh of events near the coastal Carolinas this weekend. With the big high over the top at the surface, the trof split in the face of things, and energy of a tropical nature being entrained into the stalled frontal boundary, it certainly is something that has the potential to cause more wailing and gnashing of teeth for areas that don't need more rain. “

July 21, 2004

“Of course, trying to claim that would be saying I opted for a path into the Gulf before I opted against it, which is not the way I do things. But in any case, the Gulf is now more of a concern for true tropical shenanigans, but still the ideas for the mid and north Atlantic coast, as outlined before, have merit as far as the weekend is concerned”
“The Gulf and northwest Caribbean are back to my area of prime concern, meaning that the mischief on the middle and north Atlantic coast is of concern only because of indirect effects”.

July 22, 2004

“Look, this is like a pot boiling now, the tropics, especially with the retrogressive pattern. Folks over the western gulf still have to watch the wave, now weakened as a piece of the energy got drawn out, for with the weather map in the gulf next week that could still come back. And the energy that got drawn north ( and one must understand, all this is is a subtle intersection of the northern end of the wave with a pre-existing area, and its the extra heat that can send this off and running) well that is in an area that has to be watched as the trof lifts out, the ridge backs and the air is warming in the means over it. A slow north drift is likely the next couple of days and again the weather map is one that makes one suspicious”
“The surface map still looks like one that would make one worry about the Gulf as being the place to watch, specifically the western and central Gulf next week.”

July 23, 2004

“But the second part has fed into the old boundary offshore, and it's far south over warm water with a favorable outflow pattern over it, and a building ridge to the northeast. Moral is, the weather map is such that this has to be watched.”

July 24, 2004

“The situation off the southeastern coast is such that folks from North Carolina to the Canadian Maritimes have to stay in touch with this. We have a low-level circulation that is on the northwest edge of the cloud shield that is moving slowly north-northwestward into an area that will be very well ventilated with the upcoming pattern over the next few days. In addition, a strong southeast surge is going to arrive on the scene tomorrow. This is not at all evident in any numerical guidance, and the question is, will this set off development in the backyard of the Carolinas with a slow drift up the coast for Monday into Tuesday?

The mere mention here of this is going out on a limb given the current conventional wisdom, but boy, to me, there is plenty of room for concern for a variety of reasons: 1.) the weather pattern, 2.) the warm water, 3.) proximity to the coast for possible development. The first part of the wave intersection set off the thunderstorms, but now there is a nice surge coming into the system from the southeast. At first that will compete, but should it combine, and the energy concentrate, that will be the key tomorrow. I am concerned about this, though I can't make the call yet. Still, to me, it is something that folks should keep a close watch on.

The southern end of the original wave may also have its day, but in the western and central Gulf. It will get in there Monday and Tuesday, and again, the weather map with the offshore flow developing from the high to the north warrants concern for the western Gulf.”

July 25, 2004

I am concerned still for the mid and north Atlantic coast Monday and Tuesday. The center of the low that developed east of the Bahamas Friday is near 35 north and 72.5 this morning moving northwestward. This is about to come directly over the Gulf stream, and chances are it slows and turns more northward tonight and tomorrow. How much energy can feed in from the tropical wave to the south is of a concern. The morning pics reveal convection spreading over the center and it is certainly in water warm enough with a favorable outflow pattern to develop more on its own. The type of "surprise" may be akin to Henri in 1985, which suddenly developed in the Virginia coastal waters. Again, I seem to be way out on a limb even being worried about this, but it's certainly a trackable entity this morning. At the very least it will get drawn into the party in the East early this week.”

“ And we have the latest in well-organized waves southwest of the Cape Verdes this morning. Since there is nothing to turn any of these waves northward (one notices they are all making it across rather than turning up) again over the next week to ten days, at the risk of hype, may suddenly turn active.”

(Editorial note: note how the above is a direct contradiction to his failed July 18th “pattern recognition” prediction of a slow end of July/Early August.)

“The original tropical wave will cross the Yucatan today and get into the Gulf tomorrow. This is a pain in the neck, for as the cool front comes southward over the next couple of days, it leads to offshore winds along the Texas coast and large-scale southeast winds in the eastern Gulf and again a favorable overall environment for development.”

“The wave near Puerto Rico is moving west-northwestward, and that has to be watched, because again, we are in a pattern that is like a pot boiling where the lid can suddenly pop off.”

“Zone 4: We have to look to the Tropics. A deep and sustained flow is the big story here from Africa. The first wave in the pipe line is discussed in the tropical section above and that should be near Florida Tuesday or Wednesday. The pattern, backing ridge and upper lows cutting off and spinning allowing for better pockets of ventilation, is something that is conducive to enhanced tropical activity. It's a matter of tracking waves now and trying to figure out if one is going to pop and affect Florida. But eyes in Florida should look east and southeast over the next 10-15 days.”

[stormchazer]

Expect a slam from Steve in LA.

[seahawkjd]

I guess this answers my question about the NHC being conservative. If you always take a chance and go out on a limb, you are going to be remembered for your stunning failures instead of the couple that you figure out before anyone knew what was happening.

[mf_dolphin]

ADMIN Note:
This topic is fine as long as it doesn't deteriorate into a bash fest. If it does suspensions may ensure. Just a word to the wise.....

[OtherHD]

I guess this answers my question about the NHC being conservative. If you always take a chance and go out on a limb, you are going to be remembered for your stunning failures instead of the couple that you figure out before anyone knew what was happening.

You would think that, but the reality is that JB is hailed as the supreme weather god even though his formation forecasts bust FAR more often than they end up correct. Add to that the fact that he continually lambasts the NHC (and Derecho needs to post these comments as well, if there are any) for "missing the boat" or whatever, when in reality THEIR forecast history is superior to JB's. Everyone has their hits and misses, of course, but when it comes to reputation, JB is very overrated, and the NHC is far too underrated. That's my opinion.

[seahawkjd]

I'm just making a connection to a previous post I made asking why the NHC is always underrating storms. Joe Bastardi always seems to go to the extremes of what might happen and therefore he becomes contriversial and he gets knocked a lot more for his failures then when he gets it dead on. Personally I think he gives a lot of good insight and if nothing else its an entertaining read.

[USAwx1]

Having a gotten a free trial sub to Accuweather for the humor value, I actually went through and resarched this one night I was bored, before Frances...intended to wait for a lull in the season to post, but given all the worshipful "kudos" to JB for "predicting" the formation of Gaston, I thought I'd toss out this reality check in a timely fashion.

I looked at every JB column from June 1 to July 31st...however, for whatever reason the AccuWx archive contains no colums for the last 6 days of each month (likely some sort of screwup by whoever does the website) so actually it's a record of June 1-24th, and July 1-25th, forecasts.

Of course, it would be nice if each TC formation prediction was of the nature of "In a box bounded by 20N, 30N, 60W, 70W, a named storm will form in the next 3 days" but of course, being a JB column, they aren't. The predictions vary in "strength" but most consist of the usual "Watch (the GOM, the Atlantic, etc.)" or an expression of "concern."

Most of these predictions are of a generally similar nature to JB's predictions "a week before" Gaston.

Of course, it's subscription site and copywright material. A quote of a few sentences here and there is usually considered "fair use."..but this is a few sentences, but from a LOT of different columns. I've attempted to pare them down as much as possible. I am convinced that if I was to paraphrase anything I'd be strung up by the JB cult. I have done my best to avoid taking anything out of context.

Note that EVERY single one of the predictions below was a FAILED prediction, as nothing formed till Alex on July 31st.

You may notice the predictions at the end of July sound LIKE they are predicting the formation of Alex, but they ACTUALLY are predictions for a little low that PRECEEDED Alex off the East Coast, and which made INVEST but never formed a TD, and never bothered anyone.

Unfortunately due to the archive problem JB's predictions of INVEST 90L in the GOM (which never became a TD) possibly reaching "115 knots" aren't avaliable.

Anyway, here goes:


June 1, 2004

“GULF MAY OPEN FOR FUNNY BUSINESS NEXT WEEK”

“…and this is something that will have to be watched for possible tropical troubles.”

June 2, 2004

“However, assuming I am right about this development, it means the pulse is coming across and will be in the Caribbean and Gulf around the 10th, so although the models do not show anything, I still hold that we will have to watch for possible early-season development around that time.”

June 4, 2004

“This does not change my thinking which is simply the period around and after the 10th is one to watch for development down there.”

June 6, 2004

“TROPICS: The Gulf will have to be watched starting later this week…..”

June 9, 2004

“The pot may start to boil in the gulf early next week…… Point is tomorrow is June 10th and the gulf may have to be watched as we go into the weekend into early next week.”

June 10, 2004

“The situation in the western Caribbean and Gulf is outlined below, and I am growing more nervous about this. The pattern aloft favors ridging in the wake of the upper feature backing away, and so the system has a chance to start feeding back and developing.”
June 11, 2004

“FRIDAY: PATTERN OVERVIEW - TROPICAL TROUBLEMAKER POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST”

June 14, 2004

“The overall trof split pattern, though, means that the wave east of the Windwards, though not likely to develop over the next 5-7 days, may be in a position to cause Gulf mischief in 7-10 days.”

June 16, 2004

“Now all that means is that for now, we do have to watch the gulf get again next week as the trof splits yet again.”
June 18, 2004

“This doesn't affect the idea that Gulf and western Caribbean will have to be watched next week.”
June 22, 2004

“The point is the western gulf will have to be watched over the next several days, until some semblance of normalcy returns.”

June 23, 2004

“That means that if we can get thunderstorms to persist over the western gulf, then we have to be a bit concerned. I may post a comment on this later Thursday, or perhaps earlier if I can see something to talk about with it. Still fronts in the gulf, with some intersection from tropical waves going by to the south are something that has to be watched.”

(No archived columns June 25-30.)

July 3, 2004:

“…it looks to me the only wave of concern now, east of the islands, is something the Gulf has to watch later this week.”

July 6, 2004

“TUESDAY: PATTERN LOOKS LIKE AUGUST, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE VERDE'S L00KS ROBUST AND COULD CAUSE A FUSS
TROPICS: I made mention that back on Saturday, Garrett (my son) and I were watching the well-organized circulation that was trekking through Africa, and this looks to be the real deal. The time of the year is a bit early, but in 1996, Bertha popped, so it's not like this is unheard of. Of course, development to a depression or a storm (it probably is a depression now) is likely to wait till further west, but the point is the pattern is such that this is a watchable feature and could be a threat into the Gulf next week.”

July 7, 2004

“The system at 12 north and 32 west this morning continues westward with a well-defined signature. Once to 60 west (it should reach it Saturday night), it will start being of more concern. I don't believe GFS ideas that this will head up into the Atlantic, but I think a track near the islands, and into the Gulf for next week, is a much more likely idea. It's in the Gulf that I would be concerned for us getting development.”

July 8, 2004

“The African wave train is running, and the theory here is that for the last ten days of July and the first ten days of August, it may not be as active as what it is over the next week to ten days because of the above reasons”

(Editorial aside: the above turned out to be TOTALLY and hilariously wrong, with no development in the 10 days after July 8th, and a LOT of development from July 21 to Aug. 10.)

“The well-defined low- to mid-level system near 15 north and 40 west is in "no man's land" for development now, but once west of 60 west in three days it could be a player. I am watching this closely for possible late in the game development next week, and late in the game means close to our coast.”

July 9, 2004

“TROPICS: The front-running wave is near 15 north and 48 west this morning and I still have worries about this next week in the Gulf.”
“Despite the lack of convection, the well-organized, low-level system continues its westward march, and I feel this will be a player, directly or indirectly, in the Gulf next week. I am still thinking this has a chance to go, but at this time I am not more or less convinced than a couple of weeks ago.”

July 10, 2004

“The wave in the central Atlantic will be in the northwest Caribbean, I think, by Wednesday, and that is the system that I am concerned can be a player in the weather over the Gulf later next week.”

July 11, 2004

The tropical wave that I am concerned about for the Gulf for the mid and latter part of this week is still being sheared, but the convection is increasing. My worry is that the upper trof in front of it is splitting and a ridge is going to develop nearby and migrate westward to near the western tip of Cuba by Thursday. The strong eastern trof should slow the wave down and perhaps turn it up so it may have the ridge develop close by and helping it. In addition, the lack of a strong surface high over the eastern Gulf means the usual strong low-level southeast wind in advance of these waves that ruins any convergence on the western side so if it can survive that area over the southeast Gulf Wednesday through Friday is a place to watch.”

July 12, 2004

“WESTERN GULF PLACE TO WATCH IN CLOSE LATE WEEK FOR TROPICS, ALONG WITH AFRICAN WAVE TRAIN”

“So the Gulf is the place to watch mid and late week as far as anything that can be of concern to the coast.”

“However, the African wave train is alive and kicking. A very well-organized wave came off yesterday and is at 10 north and 21 west this morning, and what looks to be a bigger one is on its way off the coast for tomorrow. I will be showing the water vapor shot this morning, and there is more moist air available for both of these systems than the one last week. In any case, they will be tracked, as I do think we are going to see a development or two out of this current pulse of waves before it trends back down again.”

July 17, 2004

“The other noteworthy item is if the pattern idea I have is right, the southwest Atlantic, eastern Gulf and western Caribbean will be ripe for tropical development the mid and latter part of next week, and the models are sniffing this out.”

“This dovetails into zone 5, where the tropics may be a big problem this upcoming weekend. The trof split pattern later in the week farther west means that the tropical wave near 35 west in the Atlantic will be in the area primed for ventilation later in the week, and zone 5 may be affected this weekend by this.”

“A tropical system may enter the Gulf on the weekend. As trof splits ridging backing westward into the southeastern states from the east may force it slowly westward or northwestward into or through the Gulf, meaning a tropical troublemaker is possible midway through the week of the 25th here.”

July 18, 2004

“And I have no change from my ideas on the waves coming from the east and the idea that the Southeast and Gulf have to watch these closely. The westward movement of the waves is slowing and the trof backing in the means says to me that between 70w and 90w south of 35 north will become a nice area to ventilate tropical systems later in the week”

July 19, 2004

“Given the implications of the very cool air mass that comes down into the Plains and spreads out, the development of the trof over the nation's midsection, and the fact that a viable tropical disturbance near 11 north and 52 west is on the increase as it moves overall on a northwestward path over the next 5-7 days, there is reason for the coastal southeast to sit up and take notice. Should that system progress more to the south than I am thinking, then it's a Gulf problem.”

July 20, 2004

“Well, there are two potential trouble spots 4-7 days down the road as far as the United States goes. The strong wave near 15 north and 65 west is heading in a body and soul type idea northwestward and will have to do battle with Hispaniola. That means that until it gets by there, there is little chance for development. The question is what becomes of it. An interesting side possibility is that energy shooting out to its west now continues westward for the Gulf and is something that can throw a spark on whatever is going on with the front in the western Gulf this weekend. That is something that will have to be watched. The other is that the other part that emerges from the battle with Hispaniola heads north-northwestward into the waiting mish mosh of events near the coastal Carolinas this weekend. With the big high over the top at the surface, the trof split in the face of things, and energy of a tropical nature being entrained into the stalled frontal boundary, it certainly is something that has the potential to cause more wailing and gnashing of teeth for areas that don't need more rain. “

July 21, 2004

“Of course, trying to claim that would be saying I opted for a path into the Gulf before I opted against it, which is not the way I do things. But in any case, the Gulf is now more of a concern for true tropical shenanigans, but still the ideas for the mid and north Atlantic coast, as outlined before, have merit as far as the weekend is concerned”
“The Gulf and northwest Caribbean are back to my area of prime concern, meaning that the mischief on the middle and north Atlantic coast is of concern only because of indirect effects”.

July 22, 2004

“Look, this is like a pot boiling now, the tropics, especially with the retrogressive pattern. Folks over the western gulf still have to watch the wave, now weakened as a piece of the energy got drawn out, for with the weather map in the gulf next week that could still come back. And the energy that got drawn north ( and one must understand, all this is is a subtle intersection of the northern end of the wave with a pre-existing area, and its the extra heat that can send this off and running) well that is in an area that has to be watched as the trof lifts out, the ridge backs and the air is warming in the means over it. A slow north drift is likely the next couple of days and again the weather map is one that makes one suspicious”
“The surface map still looks like one that would make one worry about the Gulf as being the place to watch, specifically the western and central Gulf next week.”

July 23, 2004

“But the second part has fed into the old boundary offshore, and it's far south over warm water with a favorable outflow pattern over it, and a building ridge to the northeast. Moral is, the weather map is such that this has to be watched.”

July 24, 2004

“The situation off the southeastern coast is such that folks from North Carolina to the Canadian Maritimes have to stay in touch with this. We have a low-level circulation that is on the northwest edge of the cloud shield that is moving slowly north-northwestward into an area that will be very well ventilated with the upcoming pattern over the next few days. In addition, a strong southeast surge is going to arrive on the scene tomorrow. This is not at all evident in any numerical guidance, and the question is, will this set off development in the backyard of the Carolinas with a slow drift up the coast for Monday into Tuesday?

The mere mention here of this is going out on a limb given the current conventional wisdom, but boy, to me, there is plenty of room for concern for a variety of reasons: 1.) the weather pattern, 2.) the warm water, 3.) proximity to the coast for possible development. The first part of the wave intersection set off the thunderstorms, but now there is a nice surge coming into the system from the southeast. At first that will compete, but should it combine, and the energy concentrate, that will be the key tomorrow. I am concerned about this, though I can't make the call yet. Still, to me, it is something that folks should keep a close watch on.

The southern end of the original wave may also have its day, but in the western and central Gulf. It will get in there Monday and Tuesday, and again, the weather map with the offshore flow developing from the high to the north warrants concern for the western Gulf.”

July 25, 2004

I am concerned still for the mid and north Atlantic coast Monday and Tuesday. The center of the low that developed east of the Bahamas Friday is near 35 north and 72.5 this morning moving northwestward. This is about to come directly over the Gulf stream, and chances are it slows and turns more northward tonight and tomorrow. How much energy can feed in from the tropical wave to the south is of a concern. The morning pics reveal convection spreading over the center and it is certainly in water warm enough with a favorable outflow pattern to develop more on its own. The type of "surprise" may be akin to Henri in 1985, which suddenly developed in the Virginia coastal waters. Again, I seem to be way out on a limb even being worried about this, but it's certainly a trackable entity this morning. At the very least it will get drawn into the party in the East early this week.”

“ And we have the latest in well-organized waves southwest of the Cape Verdes this morning. Since there is nothing to turn any of these waves northward (one notices they are all making it across rather than turning up) again over the next week to ten days, at the risk of hype, may suddenly turn active.”

(Editorial note: note how the above is a direct contradiction to his failed July 18th “pattern recognition” prediction of a slow end of July/Early August.)

“The original tropical wave will cross the Yucatan today and get into the Gulf tomorrow. This is a pain in the neck, for as the cool front comes southward over the next couple of days, it leads to offshore winds along the Texas coast and large-scale southeast winds in the eastern Gulf and again a favorable overall environment for development.”

“The wave near Puerto Rico is moving west-northwestward, and that has to be watched, because again, we are in a pattern that is like a pot boiling where the lid can suddenly pop off.”

“Zone 4: We have to look to the Tropics. A deep and sustained flow is the big story here from Africa. The first wave in the pipe line is discussed in the tropical section above and that should be near Florida Tuesday or Wednesday. The pattern, backing ridge and upper lows cutting off and spinning allowing for better pockets of ventilation, is something that is conducive to enhanced tropical activity. It's a matter of tracking waves now and trying to figure out if one is going to pop and affect Florida. But eyes in Florida should look east and southeast over the next 10-15 days.”

Can we please refrain form doing this nightly?

[Air Force Met]

Is this all you do? Post negative stuff about JB? You think you could be a little more original. Why don't you put out your own forecast. Get out there and tell us exactly how everything is going to go down. There have been plenty of posts on Frances and her track...and I haven't really seen you share your opinion. Is that so you can bash JB's opinion without haveing to defend on on your own?

It must be very dark and gloomy in your world...because I never really here you say anything good about anything or anyone. I guess every Don Quixote has to attack his windmill.

[Hurrilurker]

Can we please refrain form doing this nightly?

Can we please refrain from quoting 200 lines of a message to post a single line of your own?

[dougjp]

You've entered into Bastardi's usual domain with your thread.

[Steve Cosby]

It's still useful information to whomever uses it.

The non-sterodial muscled one has a number of "private" clients that rely on this type of information. For example, a shipping company would see the reference to avoid such and such area. Or one of the drillers in the gulf might alert their helo pilots to be ready for a few extra flights. If it does bust, it still provided enough lead time to whomever to deal with the consequences.

JB is not out there creating mass havoc and paranoia except to those that pay for his knowledge - and they know what they are getting and they know what to do with it.

[KWT]

leave him alone,he's got Gaston spot on,way before anybody else said it would happen.

He also predicted ex-bonnie to head towards the U.K,just after it had formed,which is very early and extrmely accurate.

[Rainband]

ADMIN Note:
This topic is fine as long as it doesn't deteriorate into a bash fest. If it does suspensions may ensure. Just a word to the wise.....

Good idea, can't say they weren't warned

[drezee]

Moderators,
Can he be officially considered a troll?

[Steve Cosby]

Moderators,
Can he be officially considered a troll?

Trolls don't post 200 lines of quotes to support their point.

Derecho chose the right handle, that's for sure.

I get kinda defensive when I see JB bashing because I pay for that side of AW. Actually, JB is as much a comedian as anything (the point-counter point videos are sometimes hilarious). I subscribe because of the better observational and radar stuff - I live in the tornado alley area and I want one good source where I can get the information I want/need in a form I can deal with. JB is just a side benefit.

[donsutherland1]

Several points to put this into its proper perspective:

1) There is a great difference in terms of difficulty between nowcasting, issuing short-range forecasts concerning existing systems, and discussing the far medium-range and longer-range.

2) Discussion of possibilities is not the same thing as an actual forecast. JB's column is about discussion of possibilities with occasional forecasts included. JB's forecasts are mainly for clients.

So that it is clear, the following are examples of speculation vs. a forecast:

Speculation: I am concerned that the SSTAs will tend to promote significant blocking in the month ahead and this could lead to...

Forecast: A storm will develop in the Gulf of Mexico and sweep up the Eastern Seaboard. Warmer air will cause the snow to change to rain in the immediate coastal plain, including the Washington, DC to New York metropolitan areas.

It should not be difficult to distinguish between the two.

3) Forecasts and discussions should not be treated as the same thing. If one assumes that they are synonymous, then one is providing a picture that is not representative.

Discussions/speculation is about what could occur. Forecasts are about what is likely to occur.

Judging discussions as if they were forecasts suggests a difficulty distinguishing between the two. Hopefully, the above can help reduce some of that confusion.

4) Credit should be given where credit is due. While some of JB's earlier concerns did not materialize, his concern about the possibility of what became Tropical Storm Gaston did materialize.

5) TPC has done a great job, on average. One should judge each performance based on its own merits. Some might have disagreements with TPC, JB, etc. That's fair. But this does not mean that such disagreements necessarily translate into bad performance.

[x-y-no]

Whatever. I find it quite strange that you would go to all this effort to document his "failures". The fact is that if you try and look ahead as far as he does, you're going to have a lot of busts. He's pretty up front about it when he does bust. More to the point, he's always reaching for more, and he explains what he's doing to try and improve.

If you don't see any value in JB's product, don't buy it. Personally, I find his columns and videos quite useful and educational. Isn't the free market a wonderful thing?

P.S. ditto on what donsutherland said about discussions vs. forecasts.