Poll: What will Recon find tomorrow?

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How strong will they find Frances to be?

Category 4 - 135mph winds
3
8%
Category 4 - 140-145mph winds
12
31%
Category 4 - 145-155mph winds
12
31%
Category 5 - 160 to 165mph winds
12
31%
 
Total votes: 39
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Valkhorn
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Poll: What will Recon find tomorrow?

#1 Postby Valkhorn » Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:05 pm

I heard that the recon will fly into Frances tomorrow. What do you think they will find? It seems like they will fly into it right after it gets another 12 hours or so to strengthen.
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#2 Postby Guest » Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:05 pm

I voted for category 5.
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#3 Postby stormchazer » Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:08 pm

I think a Cat 4 but I hope a Cat 5. Hurricanes don't hold peak intensity all that long normally, so I would love to see it peak out before it approached land.
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#4 Postby Matthew5 » Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:10 pm

I think if this keeps up. In no eye wall replacements at the time this will be a cat5.
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#5 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:10 pm

I don't know. Likely Cat 4, chance of a Cat 5 though. Depends on what the storm looks like tomorrow and if it's going through an eyewall replacement, etc.
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#6 Postby B-Bear » Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:13 pm

stormchazer wrote:I think a Cat 4 but I hope a Cat 5. Hurricanes don't hold peak intensity all that long normally, so I would love to see it peak out before it approached land.


Although I would agree that, historically, hurricanes only hold their intensity for a limited amount of time, I have never seen any reason offered for this being a phenomenon of hurricanes, but rather a factor relative to the existence of condusive conditions. As far as I can tell, hurricanes will maintain their intensity for as long as conditions are favorable for them to retain that intensity. Eye-wall recycling can diminish the intensity, as can shear and coolers SSTs. Unfortunately, this storm is only going to be getting into warmer and warmer SSTs as it approaches land, and there remains no forecast for shear in the foreseeable future. So it looks like this thing might remain a monster, with only recurviture and eye-wall recycling left as possible factors for diminishing its strength.
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#7 Postby wx247 » Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:38 pm

Upper end of the cat. 4 scale.
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#8 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:40 pm

Strong 4
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#9 Postby Janie34 » Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:56 pm

Category 4 - 145-155mph winds
Category 5 - 160 to 165mph winds


I wonder how a storm of approximately 158 MPH winds would be classified?
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#10 Postby Valkhorn » Sat Aug 28, 2004 6:15 pm

Well the NHC won't make a new advisory at 158mph, it'll be either 155 or 160, not 158 :P

That is if it's that strong of course.
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#11 Postby OtherHD » Sat Aug 28, 2004 6:16 pm

158 rounds up to 160. Would be cat 5.
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#12 Postby feederband » Sat Aug 28, 2004 6:19 pm

a monster :grr:
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#13 Postby Lowpressure » Sat Aug 28, 2004 6:53 pm

150-155 mph
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