still think Carolina storm

[boca]

I still feel a Carolina storm not a FL storm due to Gaston in the mix.

[Guest]

Its still all up in the air at this point.. and remember, with a strong storms like Frances, they begin to create their own environments.

[BUD]

I have a bad feeling about this one.Reminds me alot of Hurricane Floyd.They also thought that Floyd was going to FL until they got the data from the Gulf stream 4 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric administration and found out it was going to turn.We will have to wait until we get that data so they can add it to the computer models. AND i hate waiting!!BUT with theses storms you have too

[storm4u]

when will the data be in?

[adelphi_sky]

What's so amazing is that this storm still hasn't reached passed the Virgin Islands. This will be a longgggggggg wait for sure.

[HURAKAN]

I have a bad feeling about this one.Reminds me alot of Hurricane Floyd.They also thought that Floyd was going to FL until they got the data from the Gulf stream 4 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric administration and found out it was going to turn.We will have to wait until we get that data so they can add it to the computer models. AND i hate waiting!!BUT with theses storms you have too

I also though about Floyd, so not sure of why it turned NNW, I went to read more about it and discovered that a trough was what deflected Floyd, now that makes the difference between Frances possible track and Floyd's track. Now we don't have a strong trough to change drastically the track of the storm, so I'm buy its track toward Florida.

[Aquawind]

I would welcome a few more wobbles and jogs north anytime now..

[Stormcenter]

I still feel a Carolina storm not a FL storm due to Gaston in the mix.

Sorry all I can say is just think Andrew, case closed.

[seahawkjd]

Yeah there was a pretty significant trough that fed off of Floyd. Just a tremendous wall of rain. Fortunately it also weakened Floyd a bit in the process.

[BUD]

True about the front that turn Floyd,but the local MET or calling for some kind of front by Tuesday maybe.BUT Also remind HUGO had no front and with Hurricanes like this they can move any where they want too!!We should know more by Monday.

[Patrick99]

I still feel a Carolina storm not a FL storm due to Gaston in the mix.

Sorry all I can say is just think Andrew, case closed.

But, this isn't an Andrew scenario. I remember what happened leading up to Andrew quite well. Do you remember, old Andy had the mother of all East Coast high pressure systems north of him. I remember very dry-for-August air, and deep easterly flow out ahead of Andrew at 15-20mph. I don't see that here with Frances yet. And throw Gaston in the mix....all I can remember during the 1995 and 1996 seasons was how all those hurricanes were causing "weaknesses in the ridge," and how the next hurricane in the pipeline was going to find the weakness left by the one before it.

Was that a 1995-1996 only rule? Does that rule not apply here in 2004?

Anyway, I just don't think the ridging is going to be of requisite strength to hit S. FL. We have seen this so many times before. These storms head in the "general" direction of FL, but they keep taking those little NW hiccups, and before you know it, they're on the road to SC/NC. If I end up being wrong, I will come back and gracefully tip my cap to those who hold the opposing view.

[boca]

patrick99 I agree with you

[BayouVenteux]

If I end up being wrong, I will come back and gracefully tip my cap to those who hold the opposing view.

Well, if you're wrong and they're right, you'd better fasten that cap to your head with a wrap of heavy duty duct tape, so you can find it afterward.

[Stormcenter]

I still feel a Carolina storm not a FL storm due to Gaston in the mix.

Sorry all I can say is just think Andrew, case closed.

But, this isn't an Andrew scenario. I remember what happened leading up to Andrew quite well. Do you remember, old Andy had the mother of all East Coast high pressure systems north of him. I remember very dry-for-August air, and deep easterly flow out ahead of Andrew at 15-20mph. I don't see that here with Frances yet. And throw Gaston in the mix....all I can remember during the 1995 and 1996 seasons was how all those hurricanes were causing "weaknesses in the ridge," and how the next hurricane in the pipeline was going to find the weakness left by the one before it.

Was that a 1995-1996 only rule? Does that rule not apply here in 2004?

Anyway, I just don't think the ridging is going to be of requisite strength to hit S. FL. We have seen this so many times before. These storms head in the "general" direction of FL, but they keep taking those little NW hiccups, and before you know it, they're on the road to SC/NC. If I end up being wrong, I will come back and gracefully tip my cap to those who hold the opposing view.

Keep on thinking that while you stock up on that extra water and batteries my fellow poster. I know nothing is for sure but the cards that are being delt at this moment do not look good for SE Florida coastline. By the way the High Pressure steering Frances is suppose actually strengthen as Frances moves toward Florida so the BEST case scenario would be for Frances to track WSW and miss Florida all together but maybe hit the Keys. But again this is ALL speculation at this moment so don't worry right now alot can change in 5-6 days.

[Brent]

It's either going to Florida or the Carolinas IMO. I'm still leaning strongly towards Florida, but that could change with this 5-7 days away.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I recall watching Bertha, Fran, Hugo, and Isabelle continue to "adjust" northward. Each for a different reason. Bertha, and Fran happened to roll into the cape fear and we were on Topsail Island. I can't help but think Frances will be pulled northward due to lifting of the ridging or a trough that no one has initailized yet?? Plenty of time for unforseens to have thier effect.

I have lurked long enough to note there is a lot technical expertise here. I am just now showing signs of organization.....

[KeyLargoDave]

[There was another "Florida is OK" topic that I can't find now. I was going to post this anyway and it makes sense here.]

What follows is pure extrapolation, not weather analysis. I'm not any kind of weather expert, but I am a sailor and long-time hurricane watcher, and what I'm doing here is just plotting on a chart using the NHC track.

Notice that at the end of the 5-day forecast, the storm track is bending more north. The change between the last two forecast positions is +1.6 degree North and + 3.4 West. The change between the two points before the last one is 1.2 North and 4.3 West.

By simply taking the track at the last forecast point, 120 hours out, and continuing the same track (not adding more bend), we get the following:

6 days (Fri 11 pm EDT) 25.6 N 77.4 W -- 193 miles due east of Key Largo
7 days (Sat 11 pm EDT) 27.2 N 80.8 W -- almost landfall, north of
West Palm Beach

PLEASE don't take this as a prediction, forecast, or anything other than a charting exercise. However, it does have some logic behind it, and it does somewhat make extreme South Florida seem more in the clear.

All I'm saying: If the storm is somewhere near where NHC says it will be in five days, and if it continues the same direction it has then for two more days, it will be well north of Dade-Broward-Palm Beach counties at landfall.
That means, if there is any weakness drawing it north at the 5-6-day point, it can only hit Florida even further north, or even miss.

On the other hand, if, big if, the high is rebuilding/rebuilt/especially strong at that point, I might be in big trouble. The highest latitude they predict now is is 24 N, in a bad spot for me.

I saw another message make some points about deep South Florida not being that easy a target. There's some truth there, even though we seem to always be in the sights, and two of the most terrible storms of the last 100 years and two or three others that were very bad have hit below 26 N.

Just some food for thought, especially for those at my latitude.

As always, if I messed up any math (or logic!), please post corrections.

Dave

[Sean in New Orleans]

I still feel a Carolina storm not a FL storm due to Gaston in the mix.

Sorry all I can say is just think Andrew, case closed.

I kinda don't--I see a trough in place to carry it further North. It also depends on how fast this system moves...the trough won't be there forever....

[Aquawind]

Do you actually see a trough..like a map..or do you think it will appear?