HUGE PROBLEM WITH NHC

[JTD]

I am not one to flip out....but this is outrageous.

Just listening to Storm2k radio. NHC is holding back the verification numbers from the general public. This storm is a greater threat to S. FLa than tonights 11 PM forecast discussion indicates.

NHC has the OBLIGATION to release ALL THE DATA IT HAS AVAILABLE.

IT SHOULD HOLD NOTHING BACK!

[WeatherEmperor]

They hold back information because they dont wanna cause a media and public panic. Think about it. A Cat 4-5 storm moving around and naming a landfall point right now would cause massive panic. The last thing the NHC needs is to look like complete morons if their forecast wont hold.

<RICKY>

[dixiebreeze]

Well, please give us the info you have.

[HeatherAKC]

Oh, come on now!

(Pssst.......You're flipping out!)

OK. I'll bite. What exactly leads you to believe this?

[MWatkins]

This is not exactly true...they may be hedging on the day 4 and 5 points to be sure they do not create a situation like we saw with charley where folks focus on a premature forecast point and go with it.

It's also possible that the database and the public forecasts were out of sync...but there may be some political reasons for slowing down the track some. That was the point we were trying to make there.

MW

[adelphi_sky]

They hold back information because they dont wanna cause a media and public panic. Think about it. A Cat 4-5 storm moving around and naming a landfall point right now would cause massive panic. The last thing the NHC needs is to look like complete morons if their forecast wont hold.

<RICKY>

I disagree. better to err on the side of caution than to give people LESS time to prepare. People need to be aware of what's out there and what the POSSIBILITIES are. Sure, it's 7 days away, but hey, "Here's what we're looking at now. Here's what it MIGHT look like 5 days from now." That empowers people to make their own decisions. Perhaps someone will listen, take heed, get their family out way ahead of time. And what if it just so happens the hurricane hits? That's one family that will live to see another day. Too much information is never a bad idea when it could cost lives.

[cape_escape]

I am not one to flip out....but this is outrageous.

Just listening to Storm2k radio. NHC is holding back the verification numbers from the general public. This storm is a greater threat to S. FLa than tonights 11 PM forecast discussion indicates.

NHC has the OBLIGATION to release ALL THE DATA IT HAS AVAILABLE.

IT SHOULD HOLD NOTHING BACK!

Something doesn't seem right here! SO, when do you think they will release the info?

[JTD]

OK, Mike. Now I get it. I just listened to your radio comments.

That made me feel better.

But, just philosophically speaking, nothing should be held back for "political reasons". If the NHC causes a panic, so be it. All the relevant information should be out there for the people who know how to use it properly.

I retract my comments with that little caveat.

[logybogy]

What are they holding back?

I don't understand.

[HeatherAKC]

By "political" reasons, do you mean elections on Tuesday? Just curious. If that's the case, all I can say is it's just WRONG!

[dhweather]

I am not one to flip out....but this is outrageous.

Just listening to Storm2k radio. NHC is holding back the verification numbers from the general public. This storm is a greater threat to S. FLa than tonights 11 PM forecast discussion indicates.

NHC has the OBLIGATION to release ALL THE DATA IT HAS AVAILABLE.

IT SHOULD HOLD NOTHING BACK!

Jason, there is no reason for the NHC to revel any information past
three days, as the error in model runs tends to be extremely large.
We saw how upset the public got with a 60 miles error with Charley
(even though the NHC had warnings up for the West coast of FL).
The "error" was not theirs anyway. The press took the model data
and made it prophecy, which was wrong to do.

IF they even made reference to South FLorida right now, there would be
nothing short of bedlam and chaos - something the area does not need
right now. People need to do what they've been told to do over the
years - get your supplies ready each year, and have plans in place.
Frances will move closer and we'll have better data in a few days.

Because of its intensity, once the NHC says it is a threat to the US,
folks are going to freak out and there could be a great deal of
civil unrest.

[Air Force Met]

OK, Mike. Now I get it. I just listened to your radio comments.

That made me feel better.

But, just philosophically speaking, nothing should be held back for "political reasons". If the NHC causes a panic, so be it. All the relevant information should be out there for the people who know how to use it properly.

I retract my comments with that little caveat.

They do hold back for political reasons sometimes. I heard that very statement (or one VERY close to it) come out of Bob Sheets' mouth once. His words to my ears. I almost passed out.

[Derek Ortt]

the only thing that has happened was the ATCF guidance has been cropped. This happens from time to time and will be fixed soon.
I have also mentioned to some NOAA HRD people about only relasing the public advisories, to eliminate the confusion that we have.

[JTD]

Two points:
1. There is not going to be civil unrest if a large hurricane hits. There was no panic during Floyd, Isabel, Lili or Opal.
2. No. The elections on Tuesday have nothing to do with it, Heather. I just take exception to trying to avoid a "panic".
3. The fact this may hit S. Fla is out there on the internet. The NHC isn't exactly keeping a secret, if they do.

[Derek Ortt]

Also,

there are some changes made between the initial OFCL that appears and the one that shows up in the advisories. There are revisions as later data becomes available

[dixiebreeze]

I have some mixed feelings about this -- but not very mixed. A government entity (and the NHC is one) has an obligation to level with the tax paying public.

We endure enough "nanny" government these days without being treated like dense children who can't handle such information.

I would have to lean toward letting the public know all the facts so they can make their own decisions about how to handle situations.

Can there really be "too much" information where life and property are concerned? I don't think so.

That said, I have no idea what the NHC is allegedly "holding back," so I wish someone would TELL US!

[dhweather]

There will be civil unrest if the NHC says it's coming
too soon. People in south FL remember Andrew,
and they will flip out if the official verbiage says
"South Florida".

[Air Force Met]

the only thing that has happened was the ATCF guidance has been cropped. This happens from time to time and will be fixed soon.
I have also mentioned to some NOAA HRD people about only relasing the public advisories, to eliminate the confusion that we have.

If you remember...the discussion used to be "Intergovernmental discussion"...not just a forecast discussion. You used to have to have some gov't connections to read them.

[frankthetank]

Either way SOME people are always going to want to blame someone else....

They might as well devulge all relevant information... the media hypes everything...it sells...thats why people need to come to sites like this... There are some very smart people that can teach others on this forum...i'm still learning...later

[dixiebreeze]

There will be civil unrest if the NHC says it's coming
too soon. People in south FL remember Andrew,
and they will flip out if the official verbiage says
"South Florida".

What sort of "civil unrest?" Protests?