Remember Andrew was suppose to turn NW

[Stormcenter]

For those of you thinking Francis will turn northward strike SC/NC just in case any of you forgot Andrew was also suppose come across a weakness in the ridge and turn northward before hitting SE Florida. Well the rest his history.

.

[Air Force Met]

Yep. If you extrapolated out their 3 day on the 23rd...It came in north of the cape. The forecast on the 20th was pointing it towards the carolinas.

Of course...modeling is a lot better now than it was then. We've come a long way, baby

[TLHR]

Ok....

Remember Floyd was supposed to come ashore at Daytone Beach?
Remember Charley was supposed to come ashore at Tampa?
Remember Fran was supposed to hit Charleston?

All 3 storms hooked to the right at the last minute.

Only the UKMET shows Frances coming to Florida.
The GDFL aims it at Maryland.

The real track will probably lie somewhere between the two...







...which is the Carolinas.

[jaysonx]

Ok....

Remember Floyd was supposed to come ashore at Daytone Beach?
Remember Charley was supposed to come ashore at Tampa?
Remember Fran was supposed to hit Charleston?

All 3 storms hooked to the right at the last minute.

Only the UKMET shows Frances coming to Florida.
The GDFL aims it at Maryland.

The real track will probably lie somewhere between the two...


...which is the Carolinas.

Heh yea, I was just thinking about Floyd... They even closed disney for a day in preperation of the storm.. How suprised Florida was to wake up the next day to sunny skies and 10mph winds at the beach.

Here is a nice storm track map for those that might not remember:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/archive/1999/storms/floyd/floyd.track.gif

Quite similar to the storm we are currently tracking I might add.... (not that it means anything when it comes to hurricanes, they do what they want).

However, the trend seems to be that storms like this eventually do turn north and impact SC / NC.

What I would like to know is, what would keep this storm from pulling a Floyd? In my years of tracking storms, it seems that it is a fairly rare event that a storm can make it all the way across the atlantic and directly impact Florida's eastern coast without having some interaction with a front / turning to the north...

[dhweather]

But MRF has it cross FL into the GOM toward
MS/LA. We just have to wait.

[TLHR]

"What I would like to know is, what would keep this storm from pulling a Floyd?"

If the ridge of high pressure hold, Frances would hit Florida.
If the ridge weakens, then Frances would curve to the right.

The latest NHC track does hint at the latter.

Regardless, everyone from Miami to Wilmington should monitor Frances.
Get supplies now.
The essentials will go quickly.

[NorthGaWeather]

Ok....

Remember Floyd was supposed to come ashore at Daytone Beach?
Remember Charley was supposed to come ashore at Tampa?
Remember Fran was supposed to hit Charleston?

All 3 storms hooked to the right at the last minute.

Only the UKMET shows Frances coming to Florida.
The GDFL aims it at Maryland.

The real track will probably lie somewhere between the two...







...which is the Carolinas.

Two of those tracks basicly have nothing to do with Frances as they weren't in the same position. Charley was forecast to hit south of Tampa and it did just that.

[Air Force Met]

Only the UKMET shows Frances coming to Florida.
The GDFL aims it at Maryland.

Incorrect. The GFS...BAMD...BAMM and LBAR also point it to that direction...Florida.

Oh...also...the 12z run of the Euro has it moving NW at the end of the period...when it's ese of Miami by only 150 miles....so it has it coming into Florida as well.

So...that's 6 models...not one.

Oh...yeah...the 00z run last night of the Canadian (only run that far out at 00z) has it coming into Miami and then riding up the entire east coast of Fl.

SO that's 7

[chris_fit]

Air Force Met...

You have a great character for a Met.

I love it! Great work. Keep it up :-D

[TLHR]

Ok....

Remember Floyd was supposed to come ashore at Daytone Beach?
Remember Charley was supposed to come ashore at Tampa?
Remember Fran was supposed to hit Charleston?

All 3 storms hooked to the right at the last minute.

Only the UKMET shows Frances coming to Florida.
The GDFL aims it at Maryland.

The real track will probably lie somewhere between the two...







...which is the Carolinas.

Two of those tracks basicly have nothing to do with Frances as they weren't in the same position. Charley was forecast to hit south of Tampa and it did just that.

The residents of Punta Gorda may beg to differ...

[hookemfins]

Ok....

Remember Floyd was supposed to come ashore at Daytone Beach?
Remember Charley was supposed to come ashore at Tampa?
Remember Fran was supposed to hit Charleston?

All 3 storms hooked to the right at the last minute.

Only the UKMET shows Frances coming to Florida.
The GDFL aims it at Maryland.

The real track will probably lie somewhere between the two...
...which is the Carolinas.

First off; The GFS has been fairly consistent in keeping Francis moving W to WNW. The last several runs have her close to S. Fl next weekend.

Now on to the notion that storms are "supposed" to hit an area. Total BS. Charlie hit where he was supposed to hit. In fact, the ETA had Charlie hitting Ft Myres area that day.

Floyd was not "supposed" to hit Daytona nor Miami. ONLY reason the FL east coast was under a warning was because the NHC was unsure how close to the coast he was going to come before the move to the N.

The forecast track is a guidance and a blend of all the models. The media takes off with the exact projected track but anywhere in the shaded area is a possibility and thus warnings go to other areas N and S of the track.

[Derecho]

For those of you thinking Francis will turn northward strike SC/NC just in case any of you forgot Andrew was also suppose come across a weakness in the ridge and turn northward before hitting SE Florida. Well the rest his history.

False, if you're referring to NHC.

Every NHC forecast track was towards the US, and then close in, towards Florida. It was never forecast or expected to turn away; some of the forecast tracks RIGHT before landfall were N of where it ended up (but by fairly small distances, relatively speaking) but were still towards S. Florida. It was never forecast to hit SC/NC by NHC.

[Air Force Met]

For those of you thinking Francis will turn northward strike SC/NC just in case any of you forgot Andrew was also suppose come across a weakness in the ridge and turn northward before hitting SE Florida. Well the rest his history.

False, if you're referring to NHC.

Every NHC forecast track was towards the US, and then close in, towards Florida. It was never forecast or expected to turn away; some of the forecast tracks RIGHT before landfall were N of where it ended up (but by fairly small distances, relatively speaking) but were still towards S. Florida. It was never forecast to hit SC/NC by NHC.

True...but there were 2 forecasts on the 21st that if you extrapolated them out...they came into GA. That was the only two that did not hint at Florida...or take it there after 3 days.

[Derecho]

The residents of Punta Gorda may beg to differ...

The residents of Punta Gorda, and/or the media, seem to be under the strange impression that Tampa is about 500 miles from Punta Gorda, when it's actually 50 miles from the South edge of Tampa Bay.

EVEN IF CHARLEY had followed the NHC track perfectly, Punta Gorda still would have experienced winds over those considered safe for mobile homes.

[Air Force Met]

EVEN IF CHARLEY had followed the NHC track perfectly, Punta Gorda still would have experienced winds over those considered safe for mobile homes.

What's that? 5 Kts?

[rsm]

Hello all. I am new to this website and find it fascinating.

If I can add something here. When Charley was passing just north of Cuba I was sitting in Venice, FL. We were watching the Tampa NBC afffiliate weather and they had a system called VIPIR. Steve Jerve who is Channel 8's MET. said that 20 computer models had Charley going in just north of Tampa, but this one model or forecasting program called VIPIR had Charley going through Charlotte Harbor- Which it did.

Has anyone ever heard of this system elsewhere or give any credence to it's true abilities?

Thanks.

[chris_fit]

Welcome!!!!!! Glad you joined.

VIPIR is not an actual model, it's some kind of software that works with other models?? Correct me if I'm wrong met's.

[Derecho]

If I can add something here. When Charley was passing just north of Cuba I was sitting in Venice, FL. We were watching the Tampa NBC afffiliate weather and they had a system called VIPIR. Steve Jerve who is Channel 8's MET. said that 20 computer models had Charley going in just north of Tampa, but this one model or forecasting program called VIPIR had Charley going through Charlotte Harbor- Which it did.

Has anyone ever heard of this system elsewhere or give any credence to it's true abilities?

Thanks.

VIPIR isn't a computer forecast model. It's a system that local TV stations subscribe to to show fancy-schmancy 3-D graphics of radars and whatnot.

From various reports, it seems to me various local TV stations have used the MM5 model and falsely described it as "our" model..as if the station had its own computer model; it happened to perform very well for Charley on the short-range forecast, and I suspect this is what you were shown; not certain whether the station was deceptive or you misheard what he said.

The MM5 has some usefulness as a short-range model but it's no supermodel or anything, and you can't judge a model on one storm.