The turn has happen a little earlier then thought. Which is why the new Gfs is much more to the south. The new Gfs doe's not get this system above 20 north, through the 82 hour time period. But what it doe's show it going through the northern leewards. Then into Pr. Then into Hati!. Which Hati will likely distroy Frances, or at least do what it did to Georges in 1998. That is weaken it to a cat1 or cat2 from cat4 or cat5. I also believe that there is enough of a high to the north to steer the system mostly to the west over the next 60 to 72 hours. Then we have to look at what the weakness that is left behind from Gaston which in all likely hood will be long gone. But later around 96 to 120 hour time period theres a slim chance of a west-northwest track. As a whole "most" of the hurricane models point to south Florida at this time. I'm going to go north of the Gfs computer model maybe getting this above 20 north at around 62 west. In I expect the enviroment around the system to remain very favable.
Here is the Gfs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 66_m.shtml
00z Gfs
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Matthew5
Matthew5 wrote:I think it will be a little more south of the Nhc track after 48 to 60 hours. Then a slight turn to the west-northwest making landfall in southeastern Florida on Friday night. So no landfall on Hati not a chance!
Whew! Thought you were losing it there for a minute, my friend. LOL
I just can't see this thing going due west long enough to get into PR and Haiti now.
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