5 day track ?

[jlauderdal]

How do you get a direct hit on miami/fll based on the NHC 5 day track? Looks like West Palm or N. I know o am focusing on a point and we would still be in the cone and all that but it seems to me they are looking a little N of here. Agree?

[ericinmia]

The NHC seems to be playing the political card, and not showing a true 5 day track...

They also claim the GFS is trending more northerly, however here is the new track loop...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

no northern trend there... or with the European model which has performed well with this storm...

The latest UKMET still claims a miami hit
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

The CNC goes ashore in miami, then curves northerly very quickly straight up the Fl coast... (unlikely, however the hit on miami is significant)
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation

The NOGAPS is predicting no high to build in... (that won't happen)
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nog ... =Animation

The GFDL is also predicting the high not to build in...
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation

here is the European model with a hit on miami...
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4082900!!/

hope that helps some...

Going by the models, and the current data i don't see why this storm would not hit somewhere in south fla. but i'm not met.
-Eric

[jlauderdal]

The NHC seems to be playing the political card, and not showing a true 5 day track...

They also claim the GFS is trending more northerly, however here is the new track loop...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

no northern trend there... or with the European model which has performed well with this storm...

The latest UKMET still claims a miami hit
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

The CNC goes ashore in miami, then curves northerly very quickly straight up the Fl coast... (unlikely, however the hit on miami is significant)
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation

The NOGAPS is predicting no high to build in... (that won't happen)
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nog ... =Animation

The GFDL is also predicting the high not to build in...
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation

here is the European model with a hit on miami...
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4082900!!/

hope that helps some...

Going by the models, and the current data i don't see why this storm would not hit somewhere in south fla. but i'm not met.
-Eric

if they arent giving us the true track than i have a problem with that. i know there are errors and cones but we should know exactly what they are thinking..i understand it if that is what they are doing but i dont agree withit. fyi, the eye is coming right over don shulas hotel..lol..i hope not my office is in miami lakes right by the police station

[TampaFl]

Great post ericinmia. Agree 100%. Does not look good for the of Florida, espeacially South and Central Fl. The CMC, UKMET, and EURO models is very disconcerning at this point.

Robert