Model Runs

[TampaFl]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

[snowflake]

The Hurricane Alley websites long range model track takes it into Mississippi and then to Tennessee.

[LCfromFL]

The NHC 5 day map shows more of a turn to the right at 120 hours - which would put an extrapolated position well north of S FL. Not sure if the long range forecasts are, in fact, starting to look to a turn with her - ala Floyd and Irene - or if this will be more of a steady WNW direction at that point - which is then much worse for N FL/GA.

Only time will tell....

[Lowpressure]

I just posed that question to Mike on another post.

[BayouVenteux]

The NHC 5 day map shows more of a turn to the right at 120 hours - which would put an extrapolated position well north of S FL. Not sure if the long range forecasts are, in fact, starting to look to a turn with her - ala Floyd and Irene - or if this will be more of a steady WNW direction at that point - which is then much worse for N FL/GA.

Only time will tell....

In the morning WXAMERICA email I just read, Larry Cosgrove is of the opinion that because the anticyclone is forecast to be pushed E by the weakness covering the MS and TN Valleys, and as there's a strong full-latitude trough progged to move into the midwest and midsouth later in the week, light steering winds are going to pull Frances NNW into the GA/SC area by Sat. a.m. as a Hugo-strength and size storm, impacting Savannah, Greenville, and Spartanburg big time.

[hial2]

The forecast map is already wrong..It doesnt take in account the present due west movement..

I dont know about NC in a week or so, but if I lived in PR I would be very concerned looking down at the barrel of a loaded weapon

[Derecho]

The Hurricane Alley websites long range model track takes it into Mississippi and then to Tennessee.

That's just the 0Z GFS.....so they are still tossing out maps without labeling the models?

[quickychick]

Yes, and it's annoying as hell. What's the general feeling about Hurricane Alley? I used to check it out quite a bit, but now for some reason always come away from it feeling disgruntled. Storm2K is much mo' bettah.