Ding-Ding-Ding! TPC steers to EC Off-Ramp

[Scott_inVA]

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

Adv 17 pulls the 96 and 120 positions more NW than previous packages.
End result is trend to NW is PROGGED through next Thursday.

GOM certainly is NOT...repeat NOT out of the woods (hell, we're not even in the woods yet).

Long Week Ahead.

Scott

[Brent]

Yes, very long week ahead.

I just hope we know where this is going inside of 3 days. I don't want some models to be pointing at Florida and some at SC/NC come mid-week.

[Air Force Met]

THink they are just keeping it offshore as long as possible. As soon as they predict a landfall...the media will go nuts. THey usually hold of on making a landfall forecast until the last possible moment.

[Scott_inVA]

Yes, very long week ahead.

I just hope we know where this is going inside of 3 days. I don't want some models to be pointing at Florida and some at SC/NC come mid-week.

Tuesday we know the weakness/wake left from Gaston and how the Ridge builds. Thursday we'll have a very good idea if/where landfall. Friday the likely panic begins. Next weekend is Labor Day Weekend...huge traffic to begin with, hundreds of thousands vacationing, hundreds of millions of $$ in tourism travel. All adversely affected.

Buy coffee in bulk, folks, you'll need it.

Scott

[Air Force Met]

Buy coffee in bulk, folks, you'll need it.

Scott

Well...there we have it. The understatement of the century

I don't think there is enough coffee to get us throught this next week. No sleep at all...especially for the couple of days prior.

I was a forecaster trainee at Ft Hood when Andrew came into Florida. I was up for 51 straight hours...and that was before the internet and all the data we have today. This is going to be brutal

[Guest]

THink they are just keeping it offshore as long as possible. As soon as they predict a landfall...the media will go nuts. THey usually hold of on making a landfall forecast until the last possible moment.

I agree with that,the last thing NHC wants to depict this early is a CAT 4/5 making landfall anywhere on the US.

[Anonymous]

No really earth shattering news, related to the 11:00pm forecast track.

I think Air Force Met summed it quite thoughtfully. No need for the NHC to make any landfall projections, with a 5 day forecast. It only creates unnecessary media hype.

In a nutshell. Nothing really new.

[Brent]

I was up for 51 straight hours...and that was before the internet and all the data we have today. This is going to be brutal

Yikes.

[Air Force Met]

I was up for 51 straight hours...and that was before the internet and all the data we have today. This is going to be brutal

Yikes.

The station chief looked at me after 48 hours at the station (no interent...so no data at the barracks)...and said "Son...go home....................that's an order. "

[Brent]

I was up for 51 straight hours...and that was before the internet and all the data we have today. This is going to be brutal

Yikes.

The station chief looked at me after 48 hours at the station (no interent...so no data at the barracks)...and said "Son...go home....................that's an order. "

[flyingphish]

Good news on the potential exit Ramp ! Thanks Scott.

[dhweather]

THink they are just keeping it offshore as long as possible. As soon as they predict a landfall...the media will go nuts. THey usually hold of on making a landfall forecast until the last possible moment.

FACT!

They will not let the paths even hint at the US on this one until they
are very confident on the landfall vicinity. Hence the extra P3 and
buoy infor to feed the models. It will be a long week next week.

[Scott_inVA]

No really earth shattering news, related to the 11:00pm forecast track.

I think Air Force Met summed it quite thoughtfully. No need for the NHC to make any landfall projections, with a 5 day forecast. It only creates unnecessary media hype.

In a nutshell. Nothing really new.

I strongly disagree.

Advisory 17 is the first projection that maintains a northern component (something they have been "bracing" people for in previous Discussions).
If this holds, they've, at least short-term, given up on the westward (read: Islands/GOM) solution.


I believe a key to this is a quick glance at progged 588s puts the southeast in the danger zone. NHC/TPC won't advertise any CONUS landfall this far out with good reason...no one knows where she's going right now.

Scott

[Storminole]

I don't think I agree with a NHC philosophy of holding off on a landfall prediction until the "last possible moment" lest they get it wrong and then get criticized for it. Seems to me that boils down to protecting their vanity ahead of performing their core mission to warn the public.

Can't see how an "early warning" can create more panic than a late warning will. And I think there is good reason right now to believe (and the NHC itself believes) that Florida is threatened with an Andrew-level hurricane event (or worse) during the latter portion of next week. Is simply declaring that danger--and what they believe may happen--something that the NHC is unwilling to do?

It's true that there isn't a reason to predict a precise landfall point, but I would favor an early "broad cone" to help jolt people into early action. In this case at least, it may not matter much because (after Charley) I have no doubt that the Florida media is about to go bonkers over the approaching storm, with or without the NHC on board.

But I still don't agree with the philosophy of withholding ominous forecasts from the public until they're "sure" they're gonna unfold. That level of certainty comes too late in the game for densely populated areas where millions might have to evacuate.

[NC George]

Well, it costs over 1 million dollars per day for every mile of beach that is evacuated, and that is here in NC. It is probably more in Florida especially on Labor Day Weekend. So a cost/benefit analysis must be made about when is the appropriate time to issue evacuation orders, to minimize the overall economic impact on the area.

As to the evacuations, you aren't supposed to have millions of people heading totally out of the potentially stricken area. Heck, have you tried to leave the area after a Dolphins game. That's only 75,000 people. You are only supposed to travel out of the way of the storm surge, or if you inhabit a less than substantial structure i.e. mobile home. This should be a 10-25 mile trip, not a several hundred mile journey. Remember the people from Tampa Bay that went all the way to Orlando, only to be affected by the storm there. If they had stayed near Tampa, they would have not been affected at all.

[stormcloud]

I would tend to think that even now, tourism for the entire state of Florida for next weekend is already being affected, landfall or not.

[Janie34]

This is getting more ominous with every passing hour. A powerful hurricane, possibly a Cat 5 later, eyeing Florida or the SE coast with Labor Day weekend approaching rapidly. This is going to be a nightmare somewhere.

[Scott_inVA]

Well, it costs over 1 million dollars per day for every mile of beach that is evacuated, and that is here in NC. It is probably more in Florida especially on Labor Day Weekend. So a cost/benefit analysis must be made about when is the appropriate time to issue evacuation orders, to minimize the overall economic impact on the area.

As to the evacuations, you aren't supposed to have millions of people heading totally out of the potentially stricken area. Heck, have you tried to leave the area after a Dolphins game. That's only 75,000 people. You are only supposed to travel out of the way of the storm surge, or if you inhabit a less than substantial structure i.e. mobile home. This should be a 10-25 mile trip, not a several hundred mile journey. Remember the people from Tampa Bay that went all the way to Orlando, only to be affected by the storm there. If they had stayed near Tampa, they would have not been affected at all.

Your Orlando Charley comment reminds me of Fran. Tons of people came inland and their homes were totally missed. We had 8" of rain and sustained 45MPH winds with gusts to 60MPH. Power outages, flooding...the whole thing. Sometimes that happens.

"The path of least regret" dictates how landfall information is shared with the public. Sometimes there are watches and warnings for areas NHC probably knows won't get hit...but that causes the least harm. Conversely, they face a bigger problem in that most people (including media and us) totally zero in on the landfall point and ignore the "cone". so, TPC uses the least regret approach meaning they'll cover as much area as practical to protect lives. Charley was an excellent example. Landfall in the cone, hurricane warnings posted and it was supposed to hit Tampa and few south of the exact landfall location evacuated. Then the media, Accuweather and the public rip them for doing their job.

Scott

[Guest]

Accublunder had no right to rip into the NHC. They don't exactly do a stellar job of forecasting either. But I do think that the NHC is pretty good. The main problem with this hurricane if it hits on labor day will be the tourists. Labor day is the last weekend before school in most of the Northeast (at least for me it is) and tourists cram the beaches to get those last few days of vacation. The problem will be that not only the residents evacuate, but the millions of tourists try and get out too. Gridlock.

[NJCane]

Has anyone reads LC's discussion today? He states a Georgia landfall and has the facts to back it up, still says FL is definetly possible.