Track Confusion

[Myersgirl]

After checking out the projected track and comments this morning, I can't tell if this is better or worse for South Florida. It looks better but sounds worse!!

[Brent]

Well... the NHC track shows it better for South Florida, BUT I won't get all cozy yet. Numerous models still barrell this into the Miami area.

[wx247]

After checking out the projected track and comments this morning, I can't tell if this is better or worse for South Florida. It looks better but sounds worse!!

Just keep paying attention. The fact that you know that Frances is possibly headed in that general direction puts you miles ahead of the general population.

[LCfromFL]

I think it's way to early to tell. Long term forecasts are prone to LARGE errors (like =/- 300 miles). I think the thing to do with Frances - is watch and wait. The next few days will have better forecast tracks (particularly once the hurricane hunters and high-altitude aircraft starts their runs - that important data will make the model runs more accurate).

[Myersgirl]

For the first time , our area is asking questions and paying attention. I certainly know of a lot of things that I will add to my preparation list!!! We just got power back last week.

[Derecho]

Well... the NHC track shows it better for South Florida

Cmon, not you too? Why is everyone interpreting any NHC track that has the end movement extrapolation not within .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 degrees of arc of crossing Miami them somehow saying South Florida won't be hit?

[wx247]

We just got power back last week.

Wow... sorry to hear that!

[stormcrow]

I am working here in Ft Meyers and for the 1st time I am watching a hurricane approach where I am (instead of being at my putor 2700 miles away) and I am already nervous. I have been to the aftermath of 2 many canes, I know what they can do. I am learning what people go through, do I have supplies, should I plan to run, and which way, at what level would I stay put. Last year in tulsa watch the tornado that went through OKC approach, I felt less nerous then I do today.

[Brent]

Well... the NHC track shows it better for South Florida

Cmon, not you too? Why is everyone interpreting any NHC track that has the end movement extrapolation not within .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 degrees of arc of crossing Miami them somehow saying South Florida won't be hit?

LOL, well, it does show a WNW to NW motion when it is crossing 25 N/75 W, IF IF IF IF IF that continues it would go more towards Central FL.

I'm sure that will change a bunch of times though.

[jlauderdal]

Well... the NHC track shows it better for South Florida

Cmon, not you too? Why is everyone interpreting any NHC track that has the end movement extrapolation not within .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 degrees of arc of crossing Miami them somehow saying South Florida won't be hit?

Derecho's 0 key on his computer is now stuck in the down position. I have an extra i can send you. Actually I would feel better if the track was right on miami since they rarely hit a 5 day track perfectly. we are falling into the charely trap here by focusing on a point.