Getting a grip about microshifts of the 5 Day NHC position..

[Derecho]

Talk about group psychosis...

There was no change in the NHC track at all from 11PM to 5AM, other than moving it ahead...there was a TINY TINY TINY shift northwards in the NHC 5 day position from 5PM to 11PM.....

And people are acting like it's been moved from Miami to Nova Scotia.

The lesson of Charley is not to have an obsessive focus on the track "line," and then with Frances we see multiple long threads upset with tweaking a FIVE DAY position a few pixels?

[x-y-no]

Yeah ... sometimes I think obsessiveness is one of the most basic human instincts. It's tough to just wait without speculating though ... an idle mind is the Devil's workshop and all that.

Did my shopping to top off supplies yesterday, and drove down to my parent's and made sure I knew where all the shutters are and cleared most of the potential missiles out of the yard.

I'm about as ready as I'm going to be.

[Dean4Storms]

I agree Derecho and all that line represents is the NHC trying to put an arrow down the middle between north models and south models. I would also suspect they are trying to keep it from looking like a dead-on target for Miami to keep people from panicking until they have more certainty of the track.

[HeatherAKC]

Agreed Dean. The NHC must keep the arrow off of Miami unti they are sure. We know better because we look at all of the model data. Trust me, most people in South Florida only know what the local met says. It's fine by me. Let them be sure where this thing is going. Alot of factors are in play and she could end up anywhere!!

[Aquawind]

I would expect any radical change in the path would occur tomorrow after the Upper Air Data flight data this afternoon is input along with the normal low level flights..My confidence in the NHC forecast will definately increase..and the NHC already is pretty confident of the current forecast..

[charleston_hugo_veteran]