12Z GFS from Yesterday

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Air Force Met
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12Z GFS from Yesterday

#1 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:04 am

It is interesting to note that if you go back and look at how the GFS has perfromed...well...its pretty good.

At 12z yesterday...til 12z today...it was almost dead on. Matter of fact...it even showed the northward component stopping b/w 06 and 12z...which it has done.

IF you go back to the 27 Aug/12z run...it showed pretty much the same thing....that b/w 6 and 12z today, the northward motion would end. The 48 hour verification point is also only about 50 miles off...and it's not because of N/S...its east/west...meaning the system has moved just a little bit faster than forecast.

Some had asked earlier how the GFS was doing. Well...it's almost spot on and even forecasted the turn west at the right time.

Draw your own conclusions.
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ameriwx2003
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#2 Postby ameriwx2003 » Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:07 am

Agreed AFM.. the GFS , the UKMET and the EURO are really close to each other right now with the track.. what worries me even though I live in inland Central Florida is the wind field will be much larger with Frances then with Charley
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#3 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:08 am

You are right on Air Force, the GFS and LBAR have done very well with Frances thus far. The latest GFS wants to bring Frances on more of a close swing to the islands. Let's wait and see it she moves a little south of due west.
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#4 Postby ColinD » Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:11 am

Best link to the GFS output?
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#5 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:13 am

ColinD wrote:Best link to the GFS output?


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

or

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
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#6 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:19 am

Here's another one I like.........

http://weather.cod.edu/models/
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rainstorm

#7 Postby rainstorm » Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:30 am

does the fact that gaston sped up and will get out of the way sooner mean a more west track for frances?
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