Dang.. in the Cone Again..

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Aquawind
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Dang.. in the Cone Again..

#1 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:07 am

Image

I hope it doesn't grow..
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#2 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:07 am

The 5-day cone is always large...
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#neversummer

Rainband

#3 Postby Rainband » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:08 am

I have a feeling me and Marshall and dixie and chad and...............will be soon :eek:
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#4 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:09 am

Brent wrote:The 5-day cone is always large...


lol..Well Said..it certainly doesn't reflect the size of the Storm..lol..Thanks for clarifying that..somebody mighta had a heart attack..lol
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#5 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:10 am

I hope it doesn't reflect the size of the storm. :eek:
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#6 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:11 am

Thanks, Rainband -- :eek:
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#7 Postby Anonymous » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:12 am

I think all of us over the Fla peninsula will be soon---and likely will remain there for the upcoming week :eek:
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#8 Postby ChaserUK » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:15 am

anyone else notice that the last 2 or 3 5 day tracks keep Frances the same distance from the coast?
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#9 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:16 am

ChaserUK wrote:anyone else notice that the last 2 or 3 5 day tracks keep Frances the same distance from the coast?


Actually... 120 hour position at 5am: 120HR VT 03/0600Z 25.0N 75.0W 125 KT

120 hour position at 11am: 120HR VT 03/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 125 KT

.5 degrees north and 1.5 degrees west.
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#10 Postby Windsong » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:26 am

I don't like this cone. It's dead center at ME. Guess I'll be evacuating... I hate it when that happens!!!!! I usually go to Orlando...not sure how smart THAT is this time. It is very hard to make evacuation plans when the path is still so broad, as it is easy to put yourself in harms way. It is also hard to get back if you go too far.

Of course, if it hits us head on, there won't BE anything to come back to anyhow. Judging the storm surge maps for Brevard County, the barrier islands will be history, and Ocean Front property will be along US 1.

The shelters here would not be able to withstand those winds. They would only protect from storm surge and that is all the Emergency Management people here will promise about them last I knew. And since the shelter locations have not changed, it is safe to assume that is still the case.

So, gotta make HOTEL plans...any suggestions?
Thanks,
Windsong
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Rainband

#11 Postby Rainband » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:30 am

Brent wrote:I hope it doesn't reflect the size of the storm. :eek:
I think I will come visit you Brent :eek: Florida may not be safe in a few days :eek:
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#12 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:31 am

Rainband wrote:
Brent wrote:I hope it doesn't reflect the size of the storm. :eek:
I think I will come visit you Brent :eek: Florida may not be safe in a few days :eek:


If this crosses South Florida and gets into the Gulf it may come here. :eek: :(
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#13 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:37 am

Well other than official shelters or out of State..stay away from the Storm Surge or low flood prone areas..west coast of Florida? It's all a guessing game for the whole SE US at this point so I would wait till after a few models runs with the upper air data included..imho.
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Rainband

#14 Postby Rainband » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:40 am

Wait and see is what we all have to do. I remember when Isabel was supposed to threaten florida and it turned. :wink:
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#15 Postby Windsong » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:41 am

Yep, you are right Aquawind. Kind of makes it hard to be proactive at this point. Guess I'll watch and wait and then wing it. Where is Bonita Beach?
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#16 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:43 am

SW Florida..Lee/Collier county borders..~5-6 miles inland..We gotta good Charley Brush..
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#17 Postby stormchazer » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:57 am

Rainband wrote:I have a feeling me and Marshall and dixie and chad and...............will be soon :eek:


Yep...me too I am afraid. Unlike many on this board today, a nice NW to N to NE swing would be fine by me. I've spent too much time a week ago carting ice to people with no roofs.
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.

Rainband

#18 Postby Rainband » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:00 am

stormchazer wrote:
Rainband wrote:I have a feeling me and Marshall and dixie and chad and...............will be soon :eek:


Yep...me too I am afraid. Unlike many on this board today, a nice NW to N to NE swing would be fine by me. I've spent too much time a week ago carting ice to people with no roofs.
I understand, I really am not as excited about Tropical Weather as I used to be. I love canes but I like it when they are either minimal or fish. Hope that makes sense, the humanatarian in me is superceding the weather enthuisiast :(
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#19 Postby snowflake » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:03 am

Dr. Lyons on The Weather Channel said that one out the two senerios would take Frances to the Carolinas.
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#20 Postby TampaFl » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:46 am

Which are??????????? :D
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