NHC mention of GFDL model in forecast

[kittcat]

The 11 am discussion mentions the GFDL...

"The GFDL model is beginning to show a little more northwesterly motion by the end of the forecast period. This track would be less threatening for SouthFlorida and the Keys."

I may be reading too much in this, but they don't mention something unless they think its going to happen.

However, when I look at this map....

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

the GFDL seems to be different from most of the others. Maybe they think the rest of the models are going to trend that way at the end of the forecast.

[Hyperstorm]

This is what I posted in another thread:

"It's basically a trick statement and there is a meaning behind it. It simply means that aside the GFDL (and NOGAPS for that matter), models do show a MAJOR threat to southern Florida..."

[HURAKAN]

In my opinion the GFDL doesn't have a good reputation, most of the time it changes course everyday or so.

[mobilebay]

This is what I posted in another thread:

"It's basically a trick statement and there is a meaning behind it. It simply means that aside the GFDL (and NOGAPS for that matter), models do show a MAJOR threat to southern Florida..."

I agree. The GFS has been on the money so far. They are keeping this thing over open water as long as possible. there is incredible agreement between the UKMET AND GFS. There track is more of a GUNA track.

[Derecho]

But the UKMET hasn't been very good this year. It had the farthest West track for Charley of the globals, by a pretty good margin. It was the one with all the FL Panhandle landfalls.

People need to stop microanalyzing the discussions like they're the Dead Sea Scrolls. There's no hidden meanings or devious tricks.

[Derecho]

I agree. The GFS has been on the money so far. They are keeping this thing over open water as long as possible. there is incredible agreement between the UKMET AND GFS. There track is more of a GUNA track.

They're keeping the 5 day position over open water, SHOCKINGLY.......because they think in 5 days Frances will still be over open water. I realize how crazy that sounds.

The UKMET model is much faster than the others. The GFS is much slower, and in 5 days, the latest run was still in the Eastern Bahamas.

[Hyperstorm]

Derecho:

Come on now, it's fairly logical. There's no need to "microanalyze" anything to get an idea of what's truly happening. It once again comes down to the logic.

You just don't want to be presented with anything that goes against what you think or say. Remember, it's everyone's opinions that count here in this board...not only yours.

[Anonymous]

But people shouldnt see this as forecasted to stay over water... reading the track is what burnt Port Charolette--There is a forecasted possibilliy of a landfalling cane in Central or South Florida within 5 days as the cone says

[mobilebay]

I agree. The GFS has been on the money so far. They are keeping this thing over open water as long as possible. there is incredible agreement between the UKMET AND GFS. There track is more of a GUNA track.

They're keeping the 5 day position over open water, SHOCKINGLY.......because they think in 5 days Frances will still be over open water. I realize how crazy that sounds.

The UKMET model is much faster than the others. The GFS is much slower, and in 5 days, the latest run was still in the Eastern Bahamas.

Your correct Derocho. What I'm saying is the GFDL has been to the right all along.(and been wrong). Problem I'm speeking of is everytime there is a shift of one tennth of a degree in Lattitude this board jumps all over. Fact is most of the models have been consistent for a long time now.The key is not it being over water but they way they have it going over water.

[Guest]

& they suddenly discredit the many models which do have it threatening South Fla.

[mobilebay]

& they suddenly discredit the many models which do have it threatening South Fla.

Thank you Mia. I"ve learned one thing. If there is any way this board can steer this thing up the east coast, Miami would be safe. There is some Powerful east Coast -removed- going on here. I've seen one line taken out of discussions and blown WAY out of proportion.(see above) remember every hurricane does not turn up the East Coast.

[ColinD]

& they suddenly discredit the many models which do have it threatening South Fla.

They mentioned those too.

His english was vague. Should have been written ...

"THE GFDL MODEL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL MODEL TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS."

[Derecho]

Your correct Derocho. What I'm saying is the GFDL has been to the right all along.(and been wrong). Problem I'm speeking of is everytime there is a shift of one tennth of a degree in Lattitude this board jumps all over. Fact is most of the models have been consistent for a long time now.The key is not it being over water but they way they have it going over water.

Here's the forecast track error so far for Frances for the models in question: (At 72 hours)

GFDL: 142 miles

GFS: 164 miles

UKMET: 238 miles

Of the global models, the UKMET has been by far, the worst, so far. Not a debateable issue...the Canadian and NOGAPS have been better as well.

[Derecho]

ROFLMAO.....

Nothing more hilarious than people I disagree with calling other people people I disagree with.

The problem I have is people that seem personally offended by any MENTION, indication, hint, etc. that Frances MIGHT not hit Miami, and fly into a panic and rage at any NHC track that doesn't point precisely at Miami.

It's rather curious that the mere suggestion the GFDL might be right, and the UKMET might be wrong, thereby makes someone an "East Coast Wishcaster."

Based on the GUNA performance, the most reasonable forecast right now is somewhere halfway in between the UKMET and GFDL. Which is where NHC has it.

Funny how the UKMET lovefest started right after it shifted to over Miami. For the first few days of Frances, it was way, way north.

[mobilebay]

Your correct Derocho. What I'm saying is the GFDL has been to the right all along.(and been wrong). Problem I'm speeking of is everytime there is a shift of one tennth of a degree in Lattitude this board jumps all over. Fact is most of the models have been consistent for a long time now.The key is not it being over water but they way they have it going over water.

Here's the forecast track error so far for Frances for the models in question: (At 72 hours)

GFDL: 142 miles

GFS: 164 miles

UKMET: 238 miles

Of the global models, the UKMET has been by far, the worst, so far. Not a debateable issue...the Canadian and NOGAPS have been better as well.

Lets all wave the all clear in Miami because one model has it turning. I think those numbers are not accurate. Let me dig up some info.

[ColinD]

Here's the forecast track error so far for Frances for the models in question: (At 72 hours)

GFDL: 142 miles

GFS: 164 miles

UKMET: 238 miles

Of the global models, the UKMET has been by far, the worst, so far. Not a debateable issue...the Canadian and NOGAPS have been better as well.[/quote]

Interesting

[jlauderdal]

ROFLMAO.....

Nothing more hilarious than people I disagree with calling other people people I disagree with.

The problem I have is people that seem personally offended by any MENTION, indication, hint, etc. that Frances MIGHT not hit Miami, and fly into a panic and rage at any NHC track that doesn't point precisely at Miami.

It's rather curious that the mere suggestion the GFDL might be right, and the UKMET might be wrong, thereby makes someone an "East Coast Wishcaster."

Based on the GUNA performance, the most reasonable forecast right now is somewhere halfway in between the UKMET and GFDL. Which is where NHC has it.

Funny how the UKMET lovefest started right after it shifted to over Miami. For the first few days of Frances, it was way, way north.

its all one big conspiracy...nhc is trying to trick everyone with their tracks and the govt is screwing arounf with model output to confuse everyone.

[mobilebay]

ROFLMAO.....

Nothing more hilarious than people I disagree with calling other people people I disagree with.

The problem I have is people that seem personally offended by any MENTION, indication, hint, etc. that Frances MIGHT not hit Miami, and fly into a panic and rage at any NHC track that doesn't point precisely at Miami.

It's rather curious that the mere suggestion the GFDL might be right, and the UKMET might be wrong, thereby makes someone an "East Coast Wishcaster."

Based on the GUNA performance, the most reasonable forecast right now is somewhere halfway in between the UKMET and GFDL. Which is where NHC has it.

Funny how the UKMET lovefest started right after it shifted to over Miami. For the first few days of Frances, it was way, way north.

its all one big conspiracy...nhc is trying to trick everyone with their tracks and the govt is screwing arounf with model output to confuse everyone.

Thats just it, there is no confusion. Almost all the models take it toward the Miami area.

[Derecho]

Lets all wave the all clear in Miami because one model has it turning.

Nice fictional strawman there...take long to build?

(For the benefit of those who may not understand the term, in a debate a "strawman" is a fictional person, holding an extreme position that their opponent has never even remotely stated, that a person creates to argue against since it can be easily beaten and makes them look good.)

Please point out where either myself, or NHC, waved an all clear in Miami because one model has it turning?

There IS that imbecile in the other thread claiming there's no threat to South Florida......that isn't the position of myself or NHC.

The ones with the extreme, ridiculous position are the people who believe that Frances is permanently locked in on a direct south Florida hit, and any mention of any other possibility is wrong, can't be accurate, and should be flamed (that's NOT a strawman I'm creating, it's what I believe is an accurate summary of many posts here this morning.)

BTW, my model verification numbers are automatically calculated by a beta version of the "Stormtrakker" software.....

They're specific to Frances only (what I posted.) I really doubt you'll find up to the minute numbers for Frances model verification on the web somewhere.

You could do it by hand, but it's a long, tedious process.

I can give you the Charley numbers if you want them.

[mobilebay]

Lets all wave the all clear in Miami because one model has it turning.

Nice fictional strawman there...take long to build?

(For the benefit of those who may not understand the term, in a debate a "strawman" is a fictional person, holding an extreme position that their opponent has never even remotely stated, that a person creates to argue against since it can be easily beaten and makes them look good.)

Please point out where either myself, or NHC, waved an all clear in Miami because one model has it turning?

There IS that imbecile in the other thread claiming there's no threat to South Florida......that isn't the position of myself or NHC.

The ones with the extreme, ridiculous position are the people who believe that Frances is permanently locked in on a direct south Florida hit, and any mention of any other possibility is wrong, can't be accurate, and should be flamed (that's NOT a strawman I'm creating, it's what I believe is an accurate summary of many posts here this morning.)

BTW, my model verification numbers are automatically calculated by a beta version of the "Stormtrakker" software.....

They're specific to Frances only (what I posted.) I really doubt you'll find up to the minute numbers for Frances model verification on the web somewhere.

You could do it by hand, but it's a long, tedious process.

I can give you the Charley numbers if you want them.

Your correct Derocho. Should not have directed my frustration on you. Its just all this east Coast hype is driving me CRAZY.