Long-Range Forecasts Unreliable???
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Long-Range Forecasts Unreliable???
If these long-range forecasts are so unreliable, why do they even exist? What's their purpose?
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Uggh...that's the GFS forecast.
Every forecast track should be properly labeled with what model it is.
The GFS is a global model running out 16 days, which means it's a worldwide forecast for 16 days. You CAN track tropical systems through 16 days on it, but it wasn't designed for it. And just because a track exists, beyond 6-7 days, it shouldn't be taken seriously.
What one CAN do with the 8-16 day forecast is forecast, in a general sense, weather/climate for an area (how much rain, average temperature) which has some use in commoddities markets, etc.
Every forecast track should be properly labeled with what model it is.
The GFS is a global model running out 16 days, which means it's a worldwide forecast for 16 days. You CAN track tropical systems through 16 days on it, but it wasn't designed for it. And just because a track exists, beyond 6-7 days, it shouldn't be taken seriously.
What one CAN do with the 8-16 day forecast is forecast, in a general sense, weather/climate for an area (how much rain, average temperature) which has some use in commoddities markets, etc.
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