Frances Advisories

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B-Bear
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Re: This is interesting, concerning Frances.......

#1881 Postby B-Bear » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:25 am

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

THE HURRICANE IS IN STEADY STATE AND HAS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
REPRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A LARGE EYE. BECAUSE THERE
IS LESS INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE...THE T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED A LITTLE BIT...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY NOT BE
AS STRONG AS A FEW HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 115 KNOTS UNTIL DIRECT MEASUREMENTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE BECOME AVAILABLE LATER TODAY. AT THIS POINT...FRANCES COULD
EITHER INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE OR COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. NEVERTHERLESS..IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AS AN INTENSE HURRICANE.

AS THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL HAS BEEN FORECASTING...FRANCES IS NOW MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280
DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPANSION OF THE DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY OCCURRING. THIS
PATTERN WOULD STEER THE HURRICANE BETWEEN THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...UK...CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS
WHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND MOVING THE HURRICANE DANGEROUSLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFDL MODEL IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.


FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 18.6N 54.7W 115 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 18.8N 56.1W 120 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 19.5N 58.5W 120 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 20.0N 61.0W 120 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 20.5N 63.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 21.8N 68.7W 120 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 23.5N 72.6W 125 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 125 KT
[/b]


That is NOT a forecast. That is an observation of a model's forecast. ;)
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#1882 Postby lilbump3000 » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:27 am

Dont set this forecast in stone, we are still days away from knowing were exactly this system is going. What i recall during previous discussion, i might be wrong but they were not even paying attention to the GFDL model, now all of a sudden they jumping all over the GFDL model. Hmmmmmm we shall see what happens.
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Re: Frances #8 obviously left but same net result; SC/NC str

#1883 Postby mobilebay » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:30 am

ncweatherwizard wrote:http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/2004/frances.html

Of course, I'm to the left now, but I'm also saying that the islands are in the clear--granted they will get some wind, rain, and heavy surf, but they'll be safely on the south side of the circulation...expect tropical storm conditions. By stroke of luck with the situation, the track forecast kind of mends itself in the later forecast periods, basically, I'm still coming to the same general spot later, despite the movement farther south...i.e. errors may easily be larger in the short term than in the long term---I do that a bit too much.

Now for Florida...do watch the storm, but you know I'm going to tell you to relax..as it's looking more and more like an FL hit is unlikely...it could obviously still happen, but areas farther up the coast should really keep an eye peeled.

At least I'm confident enough to have cancelled my vacation for next weekend. :)

This is the biggest HOMER forecast I've ever heard. GIve be a break. ONe freakin model has ot headed your way.
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Why is Frances weakening/not intensifying?

#1884 Postby JTD » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:03 am

Same question as title.

Also, is it running into to some strong shear?
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Anonymous

#1885 Postby Anonymous » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:08 am

Eyewall replacement cycle---A normal cycle that happens regurlarly and when it complets, it is stronger than before usually
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Anonymous

#1886 Postby Anonymous » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:08 am

Eyewall replacement cycle---A normal cycle that happens regurlarly and when it complets, it is stronger than before usually
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ericinmia
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GFDL is moving francis too fast...

#1887 Postby ericinmia » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:10 am

This is the reason for why it is predicting it to find the weakness in the ridge.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation
-Eric
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Gastons Impact on Francis Track?

#1888 Postby EDR1222 » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:11 am

It will be interesting to see if Gastons departure to the north then northeast actually fuels the Atlantic Ridge to strengthen further. Some mets on here said that is a possibility.
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#1889 Postby JTD » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:12 am

Are you sure there is no shear? Someone mentioned shear up to 30 kts last night.

Any chance this storm could get sheared apart like Andrew?
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#1890 Postby MSRobi911 » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:12 am

Yes quickychick it was her. We get 2 stations out of Mobile and them. They all tend to ignore us in Pascagoula....you know, we are at the outer edges of the three stations.

I wish we still got WWL, but alas our great cable company said we couldn't have it anymore :)
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#1891 Postby janswizard » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:13 am

That's a little too close for comfort, Perry. I'm at 27.28 80.21. And knowing the company I work for, they won't close the dang building and let us go home.
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Note: Opinions expressed are my own. Please look to the NHC for the most accurate information.

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Re: GFDL is moving francis too fast...

#1892 Postby mobilebay » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:14 am

ericinmia wrote:This is the reason for why it is predicting it to find the weakness in the ridge.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation
-Eric

I agree eric. However this model has been to the right all along. The other models are very defiant on coming into agreement with it. They have been on a steady coarse toward South florida. If the other models begin to turn I will believe the GFDL.
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#1893 Postby sunflowerkist » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:19 am

jason0509 wrote:Are you sure there is no shear? Someone mentioned shear up to 30 kts last night.

Any chance this storm could get sheared apart like Andrew?
We can only hope. I would not mind waking up to TD-Frances at all.
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#1894 Postby ericinmia » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:20 am

i agree...

What i meant to portray was that the most likely reason for why its tacking it more northerly is because it is taking it too quickly toward the coast.

Even the intialization for Gaston doesn't take Frances that much north.
-Eric
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#1895 Postby x-y-no » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:22 am

Last edited by x-y-no on Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Another view of Frances track....

#1896 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:22 am

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#1897 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:23 am

The turn has finally occurred? What turn are you talking about? To the WNW? That would lessen the threat to Florida?

I'm leaning more toward FL than I was yesterday. The last runs that I saw of the NOGAPS and GFDL had Frances moving NW into a 1024 mb ridge. I think the cane will have a more northerly component by the time it reaches the Bahamas, but there's no way FL is off the hook. I'm thinking Space Coast.
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#1898 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:24 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Frances isn't experiencing much interfering wind shear, but there's a lot of dry air surrounding the hurricane. Likely, an eyewall replacement cycle is the more plausible solution. The WATL is a mess with Gaston now onshore in South Carolina, a potentially developing depression east of there ... an upper low carved out SE of Gaston from the outflow of Gaston and the southern end of Invest 98L, and another small upper low SE of the Invest ... I should also add, outflow on the Southern, and SE side is more restricted and if appears some easterly winds aloft are approaching Frances from the SE ...

Image

Image
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#1899 Postby Downdraft » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:27 am

Unless Frances goes further south and gets ripped in the heart of the hurricane graveyard, (eastern Caribbean) nothing will keep this storm from weakening. Heck, wait till it hits the gulf stream.
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#1900 Postby sgastorm » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:28 am

I think Dr. Avila favors the GFDL model if I am remembering his discussions over the last few years correctly.
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