Hermine Advisories

[Derecho]

Hereby proving I'm not a blind shill for NHC.

No idea what they're thinking. Perhaps just waiting for Gaston to be inland and they'll do it at 5PM..or concerned it may go poof suddently.

Haven't seen any NHC model runs for 98L since yesterday, mysteriously...

[Matthew5]

It looks like a tropical depression to me. Over the last hour it seems to have formed convection over the center. It is still moving west!

[dixiebreeze]

Hereby proving I'm not a blind shill for NHC.

No idea what they're thinking. Perhaps just waiting for Gaston to be inland and they'll do it at 5PM..or concerned it may go poof suddently.

Haven't seen any NHC model runs for 98L since yesterday, mysteriously...

I'm surprised, too. It will surely be a TD by 5 p.m.

[bobbisboy]

BUMP

[Matthew5]

Its blowing up good now! It is showing signs of banding.

[Scott_inVA]

Hereby proving I'm not a blind shill for NHC.

No idea what they're thinking. Perhaps just waiting for Gaston to be inland and they'll do it at 5PM..or concerned it may go poof suddently.

Haven't seen any NHC model runs for 98L since yesterday, mysteriously...

Yep. Yep.

Were Gaston not coming inland and an agressive RECCO schedule slated for Frances, TD #8 would have been a done deal. I think it's reasonable a likely fish invof a landfalling Tc could cause confusion; thus they sat on it.

But *poof* go the Invest 98L NHC models...that's something I do not understand. It's not at all uncommon to have three concurrent Invests running, I don't get it

Scott

[Steve Cosby]

But *poof* go the Invest 98L NHC models...that's something I do not understand. It's not at all uncommon to have three concurrent Invests running, I don't get it

Aren't ya'll kinda starting to see the first signs of a budding Congressional investigation forming here? There have been at least a few head scratchers this year with this being the latest.

[Matthew5]

It will be a tropical depression at 5pm if not a tropical storm!

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

steve lyons said a fish

[Steve Cosby]

steve lyons said a fish

Except for the fact it seems to be moving due west:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[Hyperstorm]

This has been said so many times already. This system will be a problem to the Canadian Maritimes (if at all). The system is forecast to move northward soon due to the same trough...yes the same trough...that is pulling Gaston northward. Don't worry. It will not come close to the Carolinas or any part of the US for that matter...

[wx247]

That really isn't the point though. If it is a TD it should be named on regardless of any other factors IMHO.

[HURAKAN]

[lilbump3000]

Your correct, 08L.Noname is up.

[senorpepr]

Tropical Depression Eight-L
29/1800Z
32.0N 70.7W
35mph
1010mb

[wx247]

30 kts...

[cycloneye]

FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082004) ON 20040829 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040829 1800 040830 0600 040830 1800 040831 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.0N 70.7W 33.6N 72.3W 35.7N 73.0W 38.2N 72.0W
BAMM 32.0N 70.7W 33.7N 72.6W 36.0N 73.8W 38.6N 73.6W
A98E 32.0N 70.7W 33.5N 72.1W 35.2N 72.0W 37.8N 70.5W
LBAR 32.0N 70.7W 33.7N 71.8W 36.1N 72.2W 39.0N 71.5W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040831 1800 040901 1800 040902 1800 040903 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 41.0N 68.5W 46.8N 52.3W 50.9N 27.9W 52.2N 7.5W
BAMM 41.2N 70.4W 46.3N 53.9W 50.9N 29.9W 55.6N 11.4W
A98E 40.6N 66.8W 47.7N 50.4W 50.8N 22.6W 46.2N 10.2W
LBAR 42.6N 68.5W 49.3N 48.2W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 56KTS 56KTS 50KTS
DSHP 52KTS 56KTS 56KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.0N LONCUR = 70.7W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 30.7N LONM12 = 69.0W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 29.7N LONM24 = 67.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

First advisory at 5 PM.

[Brent]

Thanks Luis.

[Matthew5]

Its about time

[PurdueWx80]

Taking it pretty close to MD and DE....looks like some "Fujiwara" action as Gaston will most certainly be interacting w/ it by then.