Ding-Ding-Ding! Model Map w/Eastbound 12Z GFS

[Scott_inVA]

folks,

this is a MAJOR development. If you're yapping "flip-flop" you do not understand downstream synoptic wx.

12Z is the first recent run following TPC leanings that Frances indeed recurves east of Florida. It seems to be getting the jist of the likely impending trof. That is a good thing.

IF IF IF this holds (and I believe it will eventually) the East Coast "Floydish" scenario will verify.

Map link: http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

Scott

[Suncat]

Oh heck! Just what we need on the heals of Gaston!!!

[B-Bear]

folks,

this is a MAJOR development. If you're yapping "flip-flop" you do not understand downstream synoptic wx.

12Z is the first recent run following TPC leanings that Frances indeed recurves east of Florida. It seems to be getting the jist of the likely impending trof. That is a good thing.

IF IF IF this holds (and I believe it will eventually) the East Coast "Floydish" scenario will verify.

Map link: http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

Scott

I hope it bears out, but I'm not convinced yet. It is based upon too many assumptive variables that must likewise bear out for this to happen.

[Brent]

While I don't completely buy it yet(want more runs and info showing it), I was just reading the archived Floyd advisories and this is disturbingly similar. They also originally pointed it right at Miami.

[LCfromFL]

If that track plays out, the whole eastern coast of FL will end up under watches and warnings - and we will have an evacuation nightmare ala Floyd. Every jog west counts with this lady.

Of note, the western edge of Grand Bahama Island is only 60 miles off the coast of FL - so if she split GBI as in this scenario, the whole coast of FL would feel effects (thankfully, from the weaker side - but still - what's the 'weaker' side of a cat 5 storm???)

[Derecho]

folks,

this is a MAJOR development. If you're yapping "flip-flop" you do not understand downstream synoptic wx.

12Z is the first recent run following TPC leanings that Frances indeed recurves east of Florida. Scott

That's reading far too much into NHC discussions and the forecast track, IMHO.

[dhweather]

It's still to early to tell! IT appears that the Bahamas are in for it, after that, there are
too many unknowns. By Tuesday, the models should have a better grasp.

[Anonymous]

While I don't completely buy it yet(want more runs and info showing it), I was just reading the archived Floyd advisories and this is disturbingly similar. They also originally pointed it right at Miami.

One good thing---Floyd was uncertain in the 3 day outlook range thus the evac nightmare....This is being hammered out in the 5 day outlook well before any evac's are even thought about--shows big advances in weather in past 5 years

[soonertwister]

I believe you'll find this disclaimer on every forecast/advisory put out by NHC...

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

[Scott_inVA]

That's reading far too much into NHC discussions and the forecast track, IMHO.

Why?

This is the first GFS run since 26Aug 18Z printing out a progged track east of FL. Given the likely downstream pattern and TPC's obvious (IMO) leaning toward recurvature invof eastern FL, we disagree John, if that is not perceived as a significant development.

Scott

[Guest]

Yeah, with this storm we have more technology than with floyd. But this storm is expected to probably be a cat 5 while riding up the coast- ukmet deepens it and so does nogaps. But one thing is for sure, and that is we need to watch this.

[Scott_inVA]

I believe you'll find this disclaimer on every forecast/advisory put out by NHC...

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

I keep stats on TPC and all the models I run here

For the record, TPC's margin of error with Frances at 96 hours is 128 miles. Given the disclaimer, that's pretty good.

[jaysonx]

It would not suprise me one bit to see this verify, as it happens more often than not when dealing with these types of storms. Just where it will hit though,it's way too earily to tell.

[spaceisland]

I watched Floyd march past us just a few miles off the coast while we sat it out in a shelter here in Brevard County... and I remember the uncertainty of tracks even 12 hours before it slid past. That latest model run makes a pretty sharp NWerly turn in the Bahamas... I suspect that a really huge storm will turn more like the Titanic...

[Wthrman13]

I watched Floyd march past us just a few miles off the coast while we sat it out in a shelter here in Brevard County... and I remember the uncertainty of tracks even 12 hours before it slid past. That latest model run makes a pretty sharp NWerly turn in the Bahamas... I suspect that a really huge storm will turn more like the Titanic...

This is a common misperception. Hurricanes are not solid objects that obey Newton's laws like solid objects do. They do not have inertia in the sense that a speeding train does. Hurricanes are processes in the atmosphere, not massive objects. The actual matter that is inside a hurricane at one moment is not there a short time later, having either blown out the top in the outflow (the air itself) or fallen to the ocean surface (the rain). Hurricanes are steered at the whim of the external atmospheric currents, and whatever they do, the hurricane "obeys". Of course, the hurricane itself does have an effect on the steering flow, and this could be considered a kind of "pseudo-inertia". If the steering flow abruptly weakens and/or changes direction for some reason, the hurricane can and will stop and make a sharp turn. It happens all the time.

[Floridacaner]

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
A lot can and will happen between now and day of potential landfall. 325 NM is a lot. I live in Palm Bay, FL which is about 180 miles North of Miami and about
180 South of Jacksonville.
We all want to know where this monster will go, but until about maybe the 2nd of September the models are gonna keep moving or maybe they won't. I'm about as sure as the models are.