Robert

Moderator: S2k Moderators
AL Chili Pepper wrote:The turn has finally occurred? What turn are you talking about? To the WNW? That would lessen the threat to Florida?
I'm leaning more toward FL than I was yesterday. The last runs that I saw of the NOGAPS and GFDL had Frances moving NW into a 1024 mb ridge. I think the cane will have a more northerly component by the time it reaches the Bahamas, but there's no way FL is off the hook. I'm thinking Space Coast.
Stormsfury wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Frances isn't experiencing much interfering wind shear, but there's a lot of dry air surrounding the hurricane. Likely, an eyewall replacement cycle is the more plausible solution. The WATL is a mess with Gaston now onshore in South Carolina, a potentially developing depression east of there ... an upper low carved out SE of Gaston from the outflow of Gaston and the southern end of Invest 98L, and another small upper low SE of the Invest ... I should also add, outflow on the Southern, and SE side is more restricted and if appears some easterly winds aloft are approaching Frances from the SE ...
Stormcenter wrote:I like reading evryones BOLD predictions as to where a storm that is still 1,500 plus miles away from the US coast is or is not going to make landfall. I'm here to tell you that NOTHING is said and done with this storm. If you think that then man you must have a direct line to the man above and I don't mean the head of the NHC either.
HollynLA wrote:I don't think it's safe to tell anyone along the east coast or in the GOM that they're "in the clear" or that they have "nothing to worry about". This storm is very tricky to forecast, so everyone should watch it closely because it's not going to pretty once it does make landfall. To constantly insist that it is going to "YOUR" area is obviously -removed-. This is going to be a very interesting week to say the least.
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