My Landfall Call Is...

[MWatkins]

My landfall call is...

Gotcha.

If somebody good at statistics could look into this I would appreciate it...but so far...I challenge ANYONE to give me a count of members making landfall forecasts that fall into the following categories:
1. Landfall in the same general area as where they live
2. Landfall elsewhere

Don't need an exit poll to give me the result...it will be 254 to nothing. And the twisted thing is...the people who are affected by this storm get the "honor" of "bragging rights". I really really hope this thing turns and affects no one so everyone is wrong. Unless I forecast that...then I would be right and make a lot on enemies along the way.

Unfortunately...that probably isn't going to happen...and I'm not forecasting that to happen.

There is a reason the TPC/NHC does not issue 7 day forecasts. That reason is this...and it deserves it's own line in all caps for special emphasis:

THE MODELS ARE NOT THAT GOOD AFTER 72 HOURS...AND COMPLETELY SUCK AFTER 120 HOURS.

You read that right. And I'm probably guilty of hyping this up by posting model run right after they come out late at night. I'll tone that down.

Right now a variance of oh...120 nautical miles to the west would bring the model furthest to the east right into SE Florida. A variance of the west most model (of the same 120 nautical miles) would bring the eye on a path toward Cape Hattaras. But...nobody is telling you that here...cause by and large people are reading the OBJECTIVE guidance SUBJECTIVELY. And if you gave me a deal that guarenteed that your forecast...or the TPC forecast...or any model would be within 120 nautical miles in 5 days...and if you were wrong you would give me $100...I would get rich.

And even worse...this is all going to change tonight after recon gets into the system and the NOAA jet flies around it.

It's still a discussion board...so we'll discuss. The way I do this is I just stop looking at the track as gospel after 72 hours and read the trend at 96 and 120. And congrats to anyone who gets their landfall...because your forecast will be correct.

Oh...and the precious GFDL is slower and a little left of the previous run.

MW

[Rainband]

Great post Mike.

[B-Bear]

Nice, Mike.

[kevin]

Well said MW!

[ericinmia]

nice post...

yeah the GFDL is slowing, and GFS seem to be pausing Frances in the bahamas for a little while...

GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

GFDL:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

-Eric

[Anonymous]

Mike I always read your posts. You have summed up beautifully what I wanted to say. AND, of all people, you are NOT one of the posters I would even remotely consider a hyping type.

Just the way I see it.

I also always read what Air Force met. has to say, as well as Derek Ortt. You guys are always insightful and worth reading.

Thank you!

[Guest]

Yea, that was a pretty good/informative post. The thing that may be bad about the hurricane hunters today is that they will find it in an eye wall replacement cycle.

[Stratosphere747]

When will the NOAA plane be in there and when should we some info??

[Geoff Stormcloud]

I noticed what is lining up behind frances.

[snowflake]

This is a great website.

[rbaker]

and that's why I personally do not and have not gone out beyond the 72 hrs. forecast, because of large errors. TPC even admits it on there disclaimers as well as most other websites SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS, DO NOT PLAN FOR FORECASTING

[scogor]

As always, Mike, your comments are dead on!! Makes it tough to plan for a Labor Day weekend anywhere in our neck of the woods though...

[MSRobi911]

Mike

You should include in your data collection the number of views this thread gets.....220+ in 17 minutes.

[Brent]

I actually expected a prediction.

I'm gulity of focusing WAY too much on the 5-day point, but I will not forecast this to affect me(I'm inland by 300 miles anyway) unless all the models are pointing at me in the last 72 hours before the hit.

[southerngale]

Great post Mike.

We really appreciate everything you do here.

[SFLgirl]

As usual, another great post from you Mike!!

[The Dark Knight]

Nice post Mike!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[AL Chili Pepper]

Swish! 2 points for Mike.

Still looks like Space Coast though.

[msbee]

Great post MIke
important points for us all!

[SeaBrz_FL]

I agree with all above, Mike -- your well-respected posts have always used the best data available and most of us realize this is Mother Nature and not perfect science. That said, your early call on the unexpected NE turn of Charley gave many people in the new path many more hours to prepare and my Orlando/Titusville friends are fans for life.

Don't think I said it before, but BIG THANKS!

-- SeaBrz

"Not wishing harm on the Carolinas, but hoping the 004082906 GFDL stays true."