12 UTC UKMET=Away from South Florida now more north

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FRANCES ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 54.5W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062004



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 29.08.2004 18.7N 54.5W MODERATE

00UTC 30.08.2004 19.6N 56.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2004 20.3N 59.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2004 21.0N 61.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.08.2004 21.9N 64.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.09.2004 22.7N 68.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2004 23.2N 70.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.09.2004 23.8N 73.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 02.09.2004 24.6N 75.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 03.09.2004 25.6N 77.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.09.2004 26.5N 79.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.09.2004 27.9N 80.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.09.2004 29.5N 81.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

Another model that goes away from south florida.Yesterday it was a bee line towards Miami.

[Weatherboy1]

that's only 100 miles or less off the east coast of FL. Granted it's a big shift from yesterday to the E ... and the convergence of models with a track off the coast is encouraging for us South Floridians (although, unfortunately, not good for those further up the coast). But this could be a very close call. In fact, I'm somewhat worried we could end up with a Charley all over again ... with an official track showing a path further up the coast or off the coast of FL -- but a big threat that a small wobble screws up the forecast and brings this thing on land.

[cycloneye]

Let's hope that it misses the whole US east all together and be a big fish out to sea.

[logybogy]

I don't think this latest run of UKMet is accurate. Look at how far northwest it takes the storm the next 24 hours. Isn't Frances going almost due west?

[KeyLargoDave]

It's moved North, but doesn't it still show a landfall on Saturday on the Space Coast?

200409/4 27.9 80.5

Isn't that almost onshore north of Palm Beach?

Dave

[Guest]

But that probably not going to happen cyclone..... How strong is the UKMETS definitiions for intense/strong/moderate? because a category four hurricane is by no means moderate. I know the nogaps deepens this system explosivly as it heads towards the U.S.

[Derecho]

It has a landfall in 6 days at Melbourne, Florida.

For a 6 day forecast, "Way More North" and "Away From South Florida" would be the track shifting from Miami to Cape Hatteras, not shifting from Miami to Melbourne.

People have got to stop changing what are fairly minor shifts in models or NHC forecasts in the grand scheme of things into an enormous deal.


Note: EGRR in the map below is the UKMET, AVN is the GFS; everything updated as of 12Z, I deleted A98E, the BAMs, etc. to reduce clutter.

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[B-Bear]

Nicely done, Derecho.

[flyingphish]

Very encouraging report ! Thanks for all your updates. Hopefully the news keeps getting better.

[B-Bear]

Very encouraging report ! Thanks for all your updates. Hopefully the news keeps getting better.

Perhaps I'm wrong, but I don't necessarily think it was presented as encouraging news, but rather to show that the new forecast models are not all that different from what they have been previously. A wobble here or there could put this storm into Miami, or up into the Carolinas. And there are other possibilities beyond that.

[Derecho]

Unfortunately due to the maps at the only site with the 12Z Canadian out to 144 hours, I can't import that track into my maps, thus it only has it out to 72 hours (the yellow line.)

For the same reason I can't include the ECMWF.

Wish I could improve the resolution and defuzzify it a bit, will try to figure out how.

[Derek Ortt]

That is <b>NOT</b> the UKMET. That is the Bracknell office model. The UKMET global is a different model

[cycloneye]

Too early to celebrate those who live in South Florida with this.Because things can change quickly and the tropics are in many times full of surprises so dont let's your guard down by any means until you see that Frances clears your latitud.But at least there is some good news here.

[das8929]

I live in Jupiter(So. Fla) and if it were to come on that track for Melbourne, it would be alot worse for us than it would be if it hit Miami.

[charley]

It has a landfall in 6 days at Melbourne, Florida.

Gee, for some reason that prediction does NOT fill me with happiness. Guess that's because I LIVE in Melbourne!

Regardless of where this thing hits land (assuming it does), it is going to affect people........South Florida residents aren't the only ones who matter here.

~Kate

[Anonymous]

Exacto mundo, Derecho.

I couldn't agree more.

It's called HYPE!

[KWT]

Too early to celebrate those who live in South Florida with this.Because things can change quickly and the tropics are in many times full of surprises so dont let's your guard down by any means until you see that Frances clears your latitud.But at least there is some good news here.

even that might not be the case Cycloneye,esp if it decides to wobble WSW like it did earleir.

[Guest]

The wobbling of this system can be expected. As I have constantly said, when storms get strong enough, they can begin to create their own environment. This often results in erratic movement. But in regards to my previous post on this topic, how strong are the winds in moderate/strong/intense categories?

[Wthrman13]

That is NOT the UKMET. That is the Bracknell office model. The UKMET global is a different model

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but isn't Bracknell where the UK Met Office is located? And everytime I've plotted the UKMET global model tropical cyclone positions, they've always lied virtually on top of the positions derived from the Bracknell text output. I'm almost certain it's the same model.

[weatherdude]

Most of the posts on this discussion board have been about Frances making landfall in South Florida, which would be a major disaster for Floridians if Frances holds its intensity.

HOWEVER...I have been saying that a landfall South of Jacksonville, FL was and is an unlikely scenario. Furthermore, models are now beginning to move frances away from 78W longitude and moving her to the NW. If one were to extrapolate these forecast...a landfall much farther North would occur, say in North Carolina. There is also another problem forecasting Frances' landfall which is the way the land juts out to the east around SC and NC. A change in track by 5 degrees could place the storm 50-100 miles farther to the north, (kind of like Charley in FL.)

It can still be said that Frances is over 6 days from hitting land and any forecast landfall at this time would be improbable. However, my point is a lanfall farther north than Florida appears more and more likely each model run with the global models.