I think the model to watch is BAMM

[logybogy]

It shows Frances going on a more southerly and westerly course consistent to the observations we are getting from the satellite picture right now. I think as the storm keeps going west more and more of the models will shift to the BAMM position.

[btsgmdad]

That would be very ominous for the Keys and the GOM.

[Guest]

Keep in mind that the lowly LBAR has been the most accurate model with this system.

[logybogy]

And ominous for Southeast Florida. Frances can be at such a low latitude that a NW to North turn would plow it right into Miami, and then up the coast to Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm.

[Derek Ortt]

No it is not.

The BAMM is utterly worthless for a cat 4 hurricane. It is only of use for systems that have exposed centers or centers with just shallow convection as it does not factor any of the UL data in the model

[freeport_texas2005]

every model is useless lol these things r going to go where ever they want to regardless of what a computer model says

[KeyLargoDave]

I'd rather not have the BAMM (at least this run) be right.

75 W will be the deciding point. Anything north of about 24 at that point is great for the Keys and extreme south Dade. If it's already at 25 or greater then, and trending north, all of lower Florida starts breathing easier.

I'm very concerned about the Abacos. They look to be under a very bad storm, on the bad side, and hints at a slowdown only make it worse.

People from Walker's Cay down to Hopetown are, I hope, making preparations now.

[logybogy]

I'm don't know anything about the calculus of these models. I'm going by the trends. The storm is moving just barely do north of west now. Almost all of the models say it should be going WNW or NW. If the storm keeps going west over the next day, the models will be rendered wrong and will track south and west to adjust, going more to the BAMM position.

[wxman57]

Beware the BAMM/BAMD when the environment ahead of a storm is changing. Those models are not "dynamic" in that they don't use physics to calculate the FUTURE state of the atmosphere. Instead, they assume the status-quo and move the storm along in the CURRENT stream.

That works good for the deep tropics when there aren't any upper trofs moving around to mess up the wind flow aloft (generally south of 20N). But the BAMs are not trustworthy in the subtropics where fronts come into play.

However, if I lived in Florida I'd stock up on supplies -- Carolinas, too.