Frances Advisories

btsgmdad · #1962 Postby **btsgmdad** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:03 pm

That's Just Screwy.

#1963 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:03 pm

They aren't terribly important...just telling us where the plane is for now. Once a vortex data message is sent, we'll have actual obs from the eyewall and such. Then we'll go ahead and write it out in plain English.

Thunder44 · #1964 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:06 pm

The NHC track models aren't really any good. I don't why people so much to their tracks.

#1965 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:09 pm

It may want to visit Varadero!

canegrl04 · #1966 Postby **canegrl04** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:09 pm

Maybe tomorrow they will look like thrown strands of speghetti :lol:

Website · #1967 Postby **Brent** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:11 pm

Looks like they are more tightly clustered around the NHC track:

#1968 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:26 pm

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

#1969 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:27 pm

URNT11 KNHC 291904
97779 19044 10177 56610 29900 33033 0906/ /3167 43225
RMK AF861 0106A FRANCES OB 05

@ 3:04 EDT, the aircraft was at 17.7N, 56.6 W. They are probably approaching the eyewall within 10-20 minutes.

#1970 Postby **drezee** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:28 pm

Great! They are going to punch SW to NE quad of the storm!!
I just realized that that is 33 knots in clear air. It must be quite a system.

soonertwister · #1971 Postby **soonertwister** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:29 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Maybe tomorrow they will look like thrown strands of speghetti

I hope not! That means we would be back to nowhere. But I've seen it happen before...

x-y-no · #1972 Postby **x-y-no** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:31 pm

I see the A98E is flopping again ... :-)

Looks like the BAMs, LBAR and UKMET have all shifted a little bit northward from the last run ... not enough to get excited about, though. :-)

I'm curious to see if that westward turn at the end of the BAMD track persists - seem kind of anomalous to me. I suspect it may go away next time.

#1973 Postby **hial2** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:31 pm

Brent,please read the 1800 models again and then compare it to the plot map...

ALL the ones in the 1800 models are further west and south than the plot map!!

Myersgirl · #1974 Postby **Myersgirl** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:36 pm

Great work!!! I hope you keep us updated !!!

frederic79 · #1975 Postby **frederic79** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:36 pm

It looks like the eye is contracting. Does that signify intensification about to begin? The overall storm seems to be expanding and some cold cloud tops are beginning to appear near the center or circulation (bright reds).

Nimbus · #1976 Postby **Nimbus** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:37 pm

They usually trend the long range tracks either south of Florida into the gulf or north up the east coast. That way they do not have to announce a definate landfall when there is not enough data yet. There is no objective data for a trough at this time since the upper level flow is zonal all the way to a low east of Japan.

#1977 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:38 pm

The eye is ragged, and the convection immediately around it fizzled a while ago. Frances is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. It will continue to look ragged for a while, then the new wall will take over, and it will be larger. Once it contracts, significant intensification can take place again.

canegrl04 · #1978 Postby **canegrl04** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:40 pm

this means she is making herself stronger.Will reflect in a cat 5 classification by tomorrow

AL Chili Pepper · #1979 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:45 pm

That NHCA98E is drunk. From one side of the road to the other. Deserves the recycle bin.

#1980 Postby **hial2** » Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:48 pm

The 1800 model initializes Francis one full degree west of the 1200 model suite, same latitude..

The trend is west, IMHO

Frances Advisories

Woah, the latest NHCA98 model has Frances going to Cuba!

Frances' eye contracting?

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